债 券 研 究 2026 年 02 月 28 日 存单走势或制约长债空间 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 债 券 策 略 告 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com ⚫ 供需均较为友好，支撑存单利率平稳。2026 年以来，尽管资金面面临了一些扰动，包括 税期、跨节等因素，但存单利率走势总体平稳，从供给端和需求端来看，对存单利率都较 为友好。 ➢ 供给端来看，央行投放了较多相对中长期的流动性，银行存单净融资规模明显低于 往年同期。实际上，自 2025 年四季度开始，央行流动性投放力度就明显增强，并 且通过 MLF、买断式逆回购等工具投放了较多相对中长期的流动性，同时恢复了常 态化买债操作，但对银行负债端补充 ...

中国人民银行日前发布的报告显示，2025年末资管总资产余额合计120万亿元，同比增长13.1%。 资管产品规模快速增长，新增资产主要投向同业存款和存单。 报告强调，随着我国金融市场不断深化，直接融资加快发展，融资渠道更加丰富，居民储蓄资产在 银行存款与资管产品等金融资产之间的配置与选择会更加多元。（记者吴雨） 【纠错】 【责任编辑:吴京泽】 根据报告，2025年末，资管产品配置同业存款和存单共计28.7万亿元，同比增长18.9%，全年累计 增加4.6万亿元，占资管各类新增底层资产的五成左右，比重较上年同期提升超过20个百分点。 ...

本文原载于《证券时报》2026年2月12日头版 责编：叶舒筠 校对：王锦程 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中 很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金 配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的底层资 产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同业存款或 存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类 资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更 丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这 离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢 慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康 稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态 ...

为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中 很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金 配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的底层资 产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同业存款或 存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类 资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更 丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这 离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢 慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康 稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态的关键一环。 责任编辑：王馨茹 证券时报记者 孙璐璐 央行近日首次在货币政策 ...

未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类资管产品 之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更丰富的资产类别供 投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这离不开一个重要的"吸引力前 提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因 此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业 良性竞争生态的关键一环。 早在1月中旬举行的国新办新闻发布会上，央行公布的一组数据就能看出存款腾挪背后的流向趋势：2025年资管产 品募集自住户和非金融企业的资金分别增加4万亿元和1万亿元，资管产品底层资产中，存款和存单新增4.6万亿 元，占资管各类新增底层资产的五成。 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中很大规模 资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金配置的主要诉求是 保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high-level decline in the growth rate of household deposits in China by the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a shift in asset allocation towards wealth management and asset management products, which is a response to the declining interest rates and a more diversified financial market [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Management Products Growth - The scale of asset management products has been growing rapidly, with a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [3][4]. - The growth in asset management products is attributed to the marketization of interest rates, where investors are weighing returns against risks, leading to a shift from bank deposits to these products [3][4]. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products were allocated to fixed-income assets, with significant investments in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit [4]. Group 2: Changes in Deposit Structure - The report indicates that the rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a recent decline in the proportion of household and corporate deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [5][6]. - Even though some deposits are shifting towards wealth management and asset management products, a significant portion is still directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which ultimately returns to the banking system [5][6]. Group 3: Liquidity Assessment - The overall liquidity in the financial system can be assessed by aggregating bank deposits and asset management products while excluding interbank transactions, showing a stable growth trend in liquidity over recent years [6][7]. - The central bank has effectively met the liquidity needs of the banking system through various tools, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan in open market operations in 2025 [6][7]. - The current social financing environment remains relatively loose, supporting the real economy while allowing for a more diversified observation of asset and liability structures [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 09 日 节后债市或延续节前趋势 1.8%或由阻力变支撑 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周利率债表现偏强。尽管周初 10 年国债新券短暂突破 1.8%后受止 盈情绪影响再度调整，但此后在大行的持续买入下，10 年国债也经受住了 风险偏好修复、地方债集中发行等因素的扰动，此后随着交易情绪回暖利 率再度走低，10 年期国债利率再度降至 1.8%附近，10 年政金债以及 30 年 国债的下行幅度更大。随着春节临近，也有部分投资者关注长假因素是否 会对市场趋势带来扰动。 收 益 专 题 从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份 利率容易在春节前后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一 的例外是 2022 年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但这一年的特殊性在于央行 在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。之 所以呈现出这样的状态，主要还是因为岁末年末市场往往都对市场的状态 进行了充分定价，市场结构会得到一定程度的出清，而年初货币政策的导 向往往也会根据新一年的目标进行调整，而这样的调整一般也不会因为春 节因素发生变化，后续的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of corporate foreign exchange settlement with banks on the capital market is slightly negative, while banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank significantly benefits the capital market. Attention should be paid to changes in the central bank's operations. Foreign exchange settlement can relieve the pressure of insufficient general deposits in banks and support certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates. The key influencing factors are the rhythm of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank and changes in the central bank's investment scale [5][8][10]. - Last week, the bond market continued its recovery, with interest rates, especially long - term yields, dropping rapidly. The stock market sentiment was suppressed, and the central bank's net investment was large. Short - term trading was crowded initially, and then institutions shifted to long - term bonds, driving down long - term interest rates [5][41]. - In terms of high - frequency data, most production - side operating rates declined, demand - side indicators such as passenger car sales and real estate transactions were weak, and price trends were mixed [5][48][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - The impact of foreign exchange settlement on the capital market and CD interest rates is positive. Theoretically, as long as the proportion of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank exceeds the legal deposit reserve ratio (currently 6.3%), foreign exchange settlement benefits the capital market. The actual data also shows a correlation where more foreign exchange settlement leads to a looser capital market [5][10][12]. - Foreign exchange settlement increases the general deposit scale of banks, relieves CD financing pressure, and thus supports CD interest rates [10]. 3.2 This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - This week, China will release January PMI. The US, Canada, and the Eurozone will also announce relevant economic data and central bank decisions [13][14]. - This week, the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is expected to be around 609.3 billion yuan, including 439.3 billion yuan of local bonds and about 170 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds, with no planned issuance of national bonds [14][16]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.3.1 High - Level Open - Market Operations - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a high investment scale. Reverse repurchase investment first increased and then decreased, with a total investment of about 1.18 trillion yuan and a net investment of 229.5 billion yuan. MLF had a maturity of 200 billion yuan last week, and 900 billion yuan was invested, maintaining a high net investment in medium - and long - term liquidity. Considering the maturity of treasury deposits of 150 billion yuan, the total net investment in open - market operations last week was 979.5 billion yuan [20][22]. - The capital market fluctuated significantly, with capital interest rates mostly rising. Repurchase trading volume fluctuated, and overnight interest rates and DR007 both increased [22][23]. - CD prices adjusted according to the market, and secondary yields dropped rapidly. The net financing of CDs last week was - 116.9 billion yuan. The proportion of medium - term CDs increased, and long - term proportions decreased. Secondary yields of most CDs declined [29]. 3.3.2 Continued Sharp Decline in Bond Market Interest Rates - Last week, the bond market's recovery sentiment continued, with long - term yields dropping rapidly. The 10 - year treasury bond and CDB active bonds decreased by - 1.1bp and - 2.9bp respectively compared to the previous week. Most yields of interest - rate bonds at various maturities declined, except for the 1 - year treasury bond, which rebounded by about 4bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield had the largest decline, about 4.2bp [5][41]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined, including blast furnace, PTA, and asphalt operating rates, while the semi - steel tire operating rate increased. The daily average crude steel output in early January had a narrowing year - on - year decline [48]. - On the demand side, passenger car wholesale and retail sales continued to have a large year - on - year decline. The real estate market was weak, with a significant year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing. Export indices also decreased [48]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices continued to rise, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices showed different trends. The prices of mid - stream building materials declined, and the prices of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork showed different changes [49].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current bond market is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by increased purchases from banks, with large banks favoring 7-10 year bonds and smaller banks preferring bonds over 10 years, stabilizing market expectations [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Increased Bond Purchases**: Banks are enhancing their bond allocations due to the attractiveness of long-term bond yields, which have surpassed deposit costs. The average deposit cost for banks has decreased to 1.6%-1.7%, making long-term bonds more appealing [1][3]. - **Market Stability**: Despite concerns over credit growth, maturity of fixed deposits, and stock market gains potentially leading to capital outflows, there has been no significant outflow of funds from banks recently. Banks have shown the capacity to continue purchasing bonds [1][3]. - **Interest Rate Movements**: Last week, interest rates across various maturities declined, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds falling by 1.3 and 1.6 basis points to 1.83% and 2.29%, respectively. The market is in a recovery phase, supported by bank purchases [1][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell strategy" is recommended for investors, suggesting an increase in short-term certificates of deposit and long-term interest-bearing assets. The market is expected to continue fluctuating downward in the short term, with long-term physical assets potentially nearing 100 billion [2][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquidity and Funding Sources**: Currency settlement (结汇) does not directly enhance market liquidity or funding sources. While it can improve certain liquidity indicators like NSFR and LCR, it does not increase actual funding sources. The potential for liquidity improvement may stem from other factors, such as the lack of outflows from fixed deposits and a shift in household savings towards deposits due to weak real estate sales [5][6]. - **Future Market Trends**: The market is expected to stabilize as non-bank institutions replenish their positions, leading to a normalization of the yield curve slope. Long-term interest rates may decline further, potentially reaching levels between 1.6% and 1.7% or lower [4][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, investment strategies, and liquidity considerations.