展望四季度，若基金费率销售新规落地以及理财浮盈逐步释放完毕， 信用类资产价值会否迎来重估？如何把握其中的参与机会？ 一、三季度，信用结构性抗跌与品种性超跌 三季度，债市持续调整，信用债多跟随利率债调整，内部整体呈现结 构性抗跌与品种性超跌的特征： 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 短信用整体相对抗跌，收益率上行幅度多落在 10bp 以内，信用利小 幅收窄，且是当季为数不多的录得正向回报的债券品种。 二永"利率放大器"属性再现，赎回担忧下频现急跌与深跌，尤其是 长端二永债，收益率累计上行逾 30bp，甚至 50bp，跌幅显著高于普信债。 此外，在持续近两个半月的调整中，超长信用债的跌幅也不浅。 二、配置盘的"交易行为"变化 信用资产价值重估之路 证券研究报告 信用策略系列 7 月以来，长端利率中枢震荡抬升，宏观叙事变化以及监管因素冲击 下，引发机构行为变化带来的交易摩擦与筹码互换，信用品种收益率整体 跟随调整之外也走出了结构性抗跌、品种性超跌的行情； 理财净买入信用债占整体债券净买入的比重中枢抬升。一方面，调整 后的信用票息价值逐步有所显现；另一方面，8-9 月普信债一级供给环比 明显走弱。 相应地，理财对存单的二级 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Fulei New Materials (605488), a leading company in functional coating composite materials, with growth potential in electronic skin technology [5] - The recommendation logic highlights the company's leadership in the domestic market and the acceleration of humanoid robot industrialization as key growth drivers [5] Group 2: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Fulei New Materials are estimated at 3,049 million, 3,557 million, and 4,069 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20.0%, 16.7%, and 14.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 115 million, 158 million, and 212 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of -17.4%, 37.1%, and 34.6% [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report identifies the leading position in electronic skin technology and mass production capabilities as a significant competitive advantage [5] - The report notes that the development of flexible tactile sensors may not meet expectations, which could impact market performance [5] Group 4: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic environment is highlighted as a potential risk factor, with fluctuations in the economic cycle and increased market competition being significant concerns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy impacts on supply-side dynamics, particularly in relation to the "anti-involution" effect on industrial profits [9]

在公安局工作人员的建议下，网点主任和客服经理专门为老人的几张存单进行了密码更换，将银行卡进 行了换卡，并同时将里面剩余的资金转出。考虑到老人对新型诈骗手段缺乏防范意识，容易成为不法分 子的目标，网点主任立即向大厅里等待办理业务的客户普及了一些常见的诈骗套路，例如冒充公检法人 员、虚假中奖信息等，提醒老人务必保持警惕，遇到类似情况一定要先咨询银行或报警。 "我……我好像被诈骗了！"老人声音颤抖地说到，语调里透出深深的慌张和恐惧。"我中午接到个电 话，他说他是公司高管，让我把存单里的钱都转到卡里面给他投资，说一个月就能挣很多钱，我。。。 我的钱还在吗？我的钱都存定期了，我怕他把我存单里的钱都弄走了，你快帮我看看。"老人低下头， 双手微微发抖。听到这里，客服经理小张意识到这可能是一起针对老年人的电信诈骗案件。他迅速安抚 老人的情绪，查询存单明细后，确定存款还在，立刻将情况报告给网点主任。 网点主任立马就认出老人是农行老客户，他将老人请到办公室，倒了杯水，仔细倾听了事情的来龙去 脉。随后立即联系了公安局和反诈中心，积极配合公安机关展开调查取证工作。 客服经理小朱持续跟进，第二天进行电话回访，提醒老人记好密码，保护好自 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the issuance of long-term bonds in 2025, which is expected to be substantial with an average maturity exceeding 15 years, increasing market pressure [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Pressure from Long-term Bond Issuance** The issuance of long-term bonds is significant, with an average maturity of over 15 years, leading to increased market pressure and limiting the buying capacity of various institutions [1][2][10]. 2. **Impact on City and Rural Commercial Banks** City and rural commercial banks are experiencing reduced funding due to lower deposit rates, which has shifted funds to larger banks and non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to purchase bonds [2][5]. 3. **Insurance Institutions' Shift in Strategy** Insurance institutions are reallocating funds to the stock market in search of higher returns due to a decrease in preset interest rates, resulting in a reduced allocation to long-term bonds [1][5]. 4. **Regulatory Pressure on Large Banks** Large banks are required to conduct stress tests to ensure that their interest rate risk does not exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital, which limits their ability to absorb long-term bonds [4][6][7]. 5. **Duration Mismatch and Interest Rate Risk** The significant issuance of long-term bonds has led to duration mismatches for large banks, increasing their long-term interest rate risk and limiting their capacity to hold these bonds indefinitely [4][7]. 6. **Short-term Bonds as a Risk Mitigation Strategy** While purchasing short-term bonds can reduce average duration, it does not effectively lower total interest rate risk. The focus should be on total holding size rather than just duration [8]. 7. **Fund Selling Pressure** Funds are the primary sellers of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds due to fee reforms, prior duration extension behaviors, and redemptions of mixed products, which could further release interest rate risk [11]. 8. **Potential Market Issues** If the current market conditions persist, there could be significant issues, particularly with ultra-long bonds, as they concentrate interest rate risk. Solutions include reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds or increasing market demand for long-term products [12]. 9. **Future Issuance Plans** The issuance plans for ultra-long bonds are closely tied to project funding and are unlikely to change despite market absorption capacity issues. Adjustments in issuance pace may occur, but overall supply and maturity structure are expected to remain stable [13]. 10. **Bank Capital Supplementation** Addressing bank capital to manage interest rate risk is a long-term planning issue, with options including ownership increases or issuing secondary bonds, which may further increase market supply [14]. 11. **Central Bank's Role** Direct purchases of ultra-long bonds by the central bank are not seen as a viable solution for managing interest rate risk due to existing liquidity management constraints [15]. 12. **Market Sentiment** The bond market should not be viewed as simply bullish or bearish; rather, it should be assessed based on the participation of configuration plates. Current conditions suggest a challenging environment for long-term bonds [16]. 13. **Configuration Value of Ultra-long Bonds** The configuration value of ultra-long bonds is uncertain, particularly for 30-year bonds, as there is no clear demand for them at present [17]. 14. **Asset-Liability Gap Concerns** Recent announcements regarding significant repurchase operations indicate banks' attempts to stabilize metrics, but this may not lead to a decrease in deposit rates [18]. 15. **Investment Strategy Adjustments** The recommended investment strategy is to maintain low leverage and adopt a barbell structure, focusing on short-term instruments and specific mid-term bonds while being cautious with long-term positions [19]. Other Important Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring total holding sizes and the implications of regulatory requirements on banks' bond purchasing strategies, emphasizing a cautious approach in the current market environment [1][4][6][8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and its relationship with the stock market, highlighting the current weak sentiment in the bond market and the factors influencing it [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Correlation Between Stock and Bond Markets**: The correlation is not constant; when the stock market adjusts, the bond market does not necessarily follow. This indicates that additional capital is needed to support bond yields, rather than relying solely on trading expectations [2][4]. - **Current Yield Range**: The trading range for yields is currently between 1.70% and 1.80%, with a central tendency around 1.75%. This range is influenced by market sentiment and trading strategies [2][4]. - **Policy Expectations**: There are no significant changes in the fundamental outlook, making policy expectations a focal point for traders. Potential new policies, such as anti-involution measures and relaxed real estate policies, could influence market sentiment [2][4]. - **Impact of Shenzhen's Policy Changes**: The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen is seen as a symbolic move that may prompt other cities to follow suit. However, the overall impact on the market is expected to be limited and more emotional than structural [5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Liquidity Concerns**: The banking sector faces significant liquidity pressures due to a large volume of maturing certificates of deposit (CDs) and the need for open market operations to manage these pressures. The central bank's potential actions, such as interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, are critical to monitor [3][6][7]. - **Central Bank's Bond Purchase Strategy**: While not deemed absolutely necessary, the central bank's resumption of bond purchases could alleviate issuance pressures and signal a more positive outlook. The focus will be on whether the central bank will buy bonds of varying maturities [8][9]. - **Mixed Investment Products**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is complex, with mixed investment products affecting capital flows. When stocks perform poorly, these products may face redemption pressures, impacting the bond market negatively [10]. - **Key Monitoring Points**: Important factors to watch include the liquidity pressures faced by large banks, the progress of government bond transactions, and the redemption trends of mixed investment products, all of which will influence asset allocation strategies [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading sentiment in the bond market this week was cautious. The trading volume of funds in the first half - week was small, and the duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased significantly. The purchasing power of the allocation portfolio remained weak, and the bullish power in the bond market was limited [9]. - The bond market vitality index continued to rise slightly. The index was compiled based on the historical quantile levels of bond market leverage ratio, turnover rate, bond fund duration, and the implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds since 2022 and their correlation coefficients with the bond market trend [10]. - Most interest - rate bond funds have recorded negative returns in the past three months. Since August, the scale of equity funds has slightly declined, while the scale of bond funds has slightly increased. The issuance of newly established bond funds this week was still at a low level [89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment - The bond market vitality index continued to rise slightly. As of September 5, the bond market vitality index increased by 2 pcts to 45% compared with August 29, and the 5D - MA increased by 5 pcts to 41% [10]. - Indicators of rising bond market vitality included the trading volume of the active 10Y China Development Bank bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds (the rolling two - year quantile increased from 41% to 63%) and the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds (the rolling two - year quantile increased from 24% to 47%) [12]. - Indicators of falling bond market vitality included the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds (the rolling two - year quantile decreased from 99.5% to 92.7%), the implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds (reverse) (the rolling two - year quantile decreased from 81% to 66%), and the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared with the average of the past four years (the rolling two - year quantile decreased from 11% to 9%) [13]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In the current bond market, the order of net buying strength was funds > other product types > large banks > insurance > others > wealth management > rural financial institutions > foreign - funded banks > money market funds, and the order of net selling strength was joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > securities firms. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying strength was insurance > funds > other product types > others > foreign - funded banks, and the order of net selling strength was large banks > joint - stock banks > rural commercial banks > securities firms > city commercial banks > wealth management [20]. - Different institutions had different bond preferences. Large banks mainly focused on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; rural commercial banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products had no obvious main bond types; funds mainly focused on 1 - 3Y and 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; other product types mainly focused on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds [20][25]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio - As of September 5, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.23 years and 0.31 years respectively compared with August 29, reaching 4.40 years and 4.21 years, and were at the 92.7% rolling two - year quantile [38]. - The median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds decreased by 0.64 years, 0.62 years, and 0.13 years respectively, reaching 5.10 years, 4.84 years, and 3.93 years, and were at the 90.0%, 90.0%, and 94.4% rolling two - year quantiles respectively [38][40]. - The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds decreased by 0.57 years and 0.09 years respectively, reaching 6.40 years and 4.54 years [40]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio - The primary subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds was differentiated this week, with the demand for ultra - long bonds rising. The weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds decreased from 2.69 times to 2.66 times, while those of policy - financial bonds increased from 3.02 times to 3.54 times. For bonds with a maturity of 10Y and above, the weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds increased from 2.69 times to 3.02 times, and those of policy - financial bonds increased from 2.77 times to 3.74 times [54]. - Large banks' net buying of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds decreased in August. As of September 5, the cumulative net buying of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was 6206 billion yuan [61]. - Rural commercial banks' cumulative net buying of bonds this year was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net buying of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net buying of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y bonds was significantly higher than in previous years [71]. - Insurance companies' net buying of bonds was significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong buying of ultra - long bonds over 10Y. As of September 5, the ratio of cumulative net bond buying to cumulative premium income reached 45.95%, exceeding 42.62% at the end of September last year [78]. - Wealth management products' net buying of bonds in the secondary market had a slightly lower duration this week but remained at the highest level since February 23, 2024. As of September 5, the weighted average duration of cumulative net bond buying was 1.75 years, a decrease of 0.02 years compared with August 29 [86]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking - Since August, the scale of equity funds has slightly declined, while the scale of bond funds has slightly increased. In September, the scale of bond funds and equity funds increased by 155 billion yuan and decreased by 305 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month [89]. - The issuance of newly established bond funds this week was still at a low level, with a scale of only 32 billion yuan, down from 48 billion yuan in the previous week [89]. - This week, the net value increases of various types of bond funds have generally expanded, with credit bond funds performing better. The median annualized returns of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds in the past week were 4.0%, 3.6%, and 3.8% respectively. Most pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds have recorded negative returns in the past three months [89].

Core Insights - The article highlights the efforts of the People's Bank of China in Baiyin City to enhance financial services for the elderly population, referred to as the "silver-haired group" [2][6] - It emphasizes the implementation of a series of measures aimed at improving payment services and financial accessibility for senior citizens [4][5] Group 1: Service Initiatives - The Postal Savings Bank of China provided personalized service by sending staff to assist an elderly customer with a frozen bank account, demonstrating a commitment to customer care [1] - The People's Bank of China has established a green channel for elderly customers, ensuring they receive timely assistance and support [4][5] - Financial institutions are encouraged to implement "warm-hearted" service modes, including the use of mobile devices for on-site assistance [5] Group 2: Financial Product Engagement - Elderly individuals in Baiyin City have a high savings capacity, with a total deposit balance of 32.2% of the city's personal deposits, indicating significant financial potential [6] - The preference for low-risk financial products among the elderly is evident, with 33.47% of national bonds and 31.42% of wealth management products sold to this demographic [6] Group 3: Training and Awareness - Banks are conducting regular training for staff to enhance their ability to identify and respond to the needs of elderly customers, particularly in preventing financial fraud [9] - There is a focus on community outreach to raise awareness about financial scams targeting the elderly, ensuring their financial security [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Accessibility - The People's Bank of China has guided financial institutions to improve accessibility for elderly clients, including the installation of barrier-free facilities and the provision of home service options [4][5] - The implementation of "warm-hearted" banking apps and self-service machines tailored for elderly users has been completed across 269 bank branches [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal characteristics and calendar effects of bond market institutional behavior are important areas of bond market microstructure research. By combining the calendar effects with the bond investment patterns of different institutions, investors can seize structural opportunities, improve investment win - rates, and enhance return levels [6][9][14]. - Among different institutions, bank wealth management is most significantly affected by seasonality, followed by commercial banks and insurance companies, while the seasonality of public funds is relatively weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bank Wealth Management - **Wealth Management Scale**: The scale of bank wealth management shows a seasonal pattern of "shrinking at the end of the quarter and growing at the beginning of the quarter". Quarterly, the scale surges most significantly in the second and third quarters. Annually, the first quarter is mainly affected by the Spring Festival, and the fourth quarter enters a seasonal off - peak. Weekly, the significant scale changes are concentrated in the last week of the quarter - end month and the first week of the quarter - beginning month [16][19][20]. - **Wealth Management Bond Allocation**: The bond - allocation intensity of wealth management increases in months of large - scale growth and the year - end "pre - emptive" period. It decreases at the end of the quarter and before the Spring Festival. The months with large bond - allocation proportions are April, July, August, May, November, and October [24][25]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: In the bond - allocation months of the second and third quarters, short - term products such as certificates of deposit, short - term financing bonds, and short - term policy - bank bonds within 1 year are the main allocation varieties. In the year - end "pre - emptive" stage, the bond - allocation term is extended. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities of varieties that wealth management focuses on and has pricing power [28][36]. Commercial Banks - **Seasonal Patterns of Liabilities and Supervision**: The liability growth of commercial banks mainly occurs in the first half of the year, with a "good start" in the first quarter. Deposits usually grow at the end of the quarter and decline at the beginning of the quarter. Bank bond allocation is restricted by performance growth, regulatory assessment, and the seasonality of fiscal bond issuance [7][41]. - **Large Banks**: Bond - allocation increases when the deposit - loan gap is high and the supply of interest - rate bonds is large. At the end of the quarter after the large - scale supply of long - term bonds, pay attention to the opportunities of steepening the treasury bond curve through "buying short and selling long" and be vigilant about the additional adjustment pressure on long - term varieties. When the bond market is continuously adjusting, large banks may sell old bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter [55][58][64]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: Bond - allocation is large in the first quarter due to the "good start" and in the year - end pre - emptive stage. In the second half of the year, they allocate bonds evenly in non - quarter - end months. Tracking the behavior of rural commercial banks is a good leading indicator to judge whether the year - end pre - emptive market will start [65][72][75]. Insurance - **Seasonal Influencing Factors**: Insurance premium income has an obvious "good start" at the beginning of the year. In the past two years, the reduction of the预定 interest rate has led to super - seasonal growth. Some insurance companies may adjust their positions at the end of the quarter to improve solvency assessment indicators due to the "Solvency II" assessment [79][80][85]. - **Insurance Bond - Allocation Seasonality**: Bond - allocation peaks usually occur in March and December. In the past two years, due to the reduction of the预定 interest rate, there has been super - seasonal bond - allocation in August and September [89]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds in March. Also, focus on the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - 10 - year treasury bonds after the reduction of the预定 interest rate [92][95][98]. Public Funds - **General Situation**: Public funds' bond investment follows the market and has relatively weak seasonality. However, some products and individual time points show certain seasonal characteristics [100]. - **Money Market Funds**: Affected by the end - of - quarter assessment of banks and liquidity management needs, the scale of money market funds declines at the end of the quarter and recovers slowly after the quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of declining yields of certificates of deposit during the bond - allocation windows in mid - March, late June, and late December [4]. - **Amortized - cost - method Bond Funds**: During the open - period peak, pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of policy - bank bonds with corresponding maturities [4][10]. - **Bond - type Funds**: The second quarter is the peak period of bond - allocation throughout the year. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 5 - year old policy - bank bonds and 2 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds. At the end of the year, there is a "pre - emptive" behavior, and attention should be paid to varieties with good trading attributes such as 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, 30 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - year secondary capital bonds [4][10].

Report Title - "The Arduous Waiting Period: A New Balance in the Bond Market under the Asset Allocation Mainline - Outlook for the Bond Market in September 2025" [1] Report Date - September 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2022, the transmission from broad credit to the fundamentals seems to be weakening. The stock - bond seesaw effect since 2025 may be driven by new logic: anti - involution has reversed the macro narrative since 2024, and the rise of the stock market and the improvement of expectations reinforce each other [5][108][165] - The stock - bond seesaw is just an appearance. The deeper reason is that in a low - interest - rate environment, residents' asset allocation behavior has changed substantially. Deposits and pure bonds have entered a low - return range, and funds are seeking more cost - effective alternative assets, increasing the demand for stock - bond hybrid products [8][113][165] - In 2025, the supply of long - duration government bonds has increased more significantly, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand and a steeper term spread [8][132][165] - Currently, the core issue is the lack of continuous buying power from allocation players, and trading players are mainly engaged in speculation [7][165] Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Bond Market Trend from January to Date and Its Macroeconomic Logic - **2025 Q1**: Tight funds and prominent bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction [16] - **2025 Q2**: Repeated tariff expectations, along with potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [18] - **2025 July - August**: Anti - involution expectations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and fund diversion led to a bond market correction. In August, the term spread of treasury bonds expanded, and the duration strategy began to collapse. The credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds and medium - term notes first increased and then decreased [20][22][27] - **Summary**: Since the beginning of the year, long - term interest rates have repeatedly attempted to break through previous lows but failed, and the interest rate bottom has been rising (the bond YTM has shown an arc - bottom pattern since the beginning of the year) [4][39][48] 2. Understanding the Deviation among Funds, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), and the Bond Market - **6 - 8 months**: Overall, funds were loose to support bond issuance, stabilize the economy, and hedge the impact of the stock market on the bond market. After the double cuts in May, the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity net injection from January to August 2025 totaled 3.98 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding historical levels [52][55][100] - **September**: Both medium - and long - term liquidity and CD maturities are high. The first ten days may be an important window to observe the central bank's attitude. The central bank may conduct 3 - month outright reverse repurchases to hedge [68][98][100] - **Deviation since July**: Funds have been loose, but CD prices have remained rigid. The CD price has a seasonal pattern of bottoming out and rising in the third quarter. Rising stock market trading activity, increased net supply of government bonds, and other factors have contributed to this situation [69][88][95] - **CD Pressure Relief**: Focus on whether the central bank conducts 3 - month outright reverse repurchases in early September. Consider whether there will be another double cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter to relieve economic and bank liability pressure [98][100] 3. Revisiting Deposit Transfer and Fund Diversion Effects - **Traditional Logic of the Stock - Bond Seesaw**: In most periods, stocks and bonds show a seesaw relationship. The driving logic is the transmission from broad money to broad credit, with expectations of fundamental improvement leading to a rising stock market, rising interest rates, and narrowing credit spreads [103] - **Resident Wealth Transfer**: It is a stock logic. In a low - interest - rate environment, residents are re - allocating assets. The main destinations of deposit diversion in recent years are likely wealth management and insurance. Residents' direct entry into the stock market may still be in the early stage [109][113][120] - **Stock and Bond Financing Comparison**: In 2024, the supply and demand of stocks were weak, while in 2025, supply increased marginally, but demand increased more significantly. In 2024, the supply of bonds was large and demand was strong, but in 2025, supply continued to increase significantly while demand weakened [132][135][139] - **Role of Allocation Players**: Insurance companies have a weaker preference for the bond market and are more interested in high - dividend assets. They are waiting for better prices in the bond market. Rural commercial banks' bond - buying power has weakened, and the bond investment scale of some accounts has shrunk [140][147][154] - **Role of Trading Players**: Since July 2025, wealth management products have been the main buyers during the bond market adjustment, indicating that the liability side of wealth management may still be stable. Pure bond funds have performed poorly this year and have faced continuous redemption pressure [155][159][163] 4. How Much Risk Has the Bond Market Released? - **Adjustment since July**: The adjustment of long - term interest rates is due to the impact of anti - involution expectations on the bond market and the stock - bond re - balance caused by fund diversion. The widening of the term spread is essentially a correction of pessimistic expectations [12] - **Future Risks to Watch**: Expectations of rising inflation, instability of the liability side of wealth management and funds, and the impact of redemptions [12] - **Indicators to Monitor**: The trend of CDs, the entry strength of allocation players, and the performance of credit spreads. The bond market is still under pressure, and a cautious view is maintained. In September, the bond market may continue to be in an arduous waiting period, and attention should be paid to the structural widening pressure of credit spreads [11][12][100]

Group 1 - The pressure in the bond market continues to release, primarily due to the emotional suppression from the stock market, the crowded trading structure in the bond market, and the "anti-involution" changing the macro narrative [2][6][31] - The stock market is experiencing a capital outflow pressure, with bond assets underperforming, as evidenced by indicators such as margin trading balances and the number of new individual investor accounts [9][19] - The performance of certificates of deposit (CDs) is crucial for observing the liquidity impact of the stock market on the bond market, with recent trends indicating a potential defensive stance from banks [18][19] Group 2 - The entry strength of institutional investors into the bond market has not been significant, with insurance funds showing a disparity in net purchases compared to earlier in the year, suggesting a potential topping phase for the bond market [26][29] - Credit spreads are under scrutiny, as limited expansion in credit spreads may indicate that risks in the bond market have not been fully released, with the current market sentiment favoring equities over bonds [27][38] Group 3 - The bond market's risk has seen some release, with a decrease in leverage ratios, but concerns remain regarding duration risks, as the median duration of bond funds is still high [31][32] - The credit spread perspective indicates that risks may not be fully released, as evidenced by limited expansion in credit spreads since the recent market adjustment [38][39] - The bond market is expected to face continued pressure, with a cautious outlook as the market may exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative news [43]