1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pattern of interest rates fluctuating within a range remains unchanged. Inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the fluctuations on a quarterly basis. On a weekly basis, the room for the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond to decline further is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the capital market, as well as the performance of 3 - 7Y varieties, while remaining cautious about ultra - long bonds [2][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Review - In late 2025, the pattern of "stronger supply than demand, and stronger external demand than domestic demand" deepened. In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of real GDP decreased due to the high - base effect, and the year - on - year decline of the GDP deflator narrowed slightly. In terms of structure, the contribution of investment to the economy weakened, while that of consumption and net exports increased [9]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded slightly, mainly supported by external demand. The year - on - year decline of cumulative fixed - asset investment widened, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all showing different degrees of decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline, mainly due to the withdrawal of the "trade - in" policy [9]. - Looking ahead, net exports are expected to continue to drive the economy in Q1 2026. Investment is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to improve marginally [9]. 3.2 Capital Prices: Slight Increase - From January 16th to January 22nd, the central bank conducted a net injection of 2439 billion yuan in the open market to support the capital market during the tax period. Capital prices continued to rise slightly, with DR001 rising above 1.4% and DR007 rising above 1.5%. The short - term disturbance factor was tax payment [10]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined slightly. Since 2026, the net financing volume of NCDs has been low, indicating that the pressure on banks' liability side is relatively controllable. Structural interest rate cuts have helped banks further reduce their liability costs [10]. 3.3 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From January 16th to January 22nd, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 619.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds increased significantly. Although the issuance amount of single - Treasury bonds remained high, the subscription sentiment was good [12]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Continued Recovery of the Bond Market - From January 16th to January 22nd, the bond market continued to recover. On the one hand, the strong upward trend of the equity market was curbed; on the other hand, the yields of NCDs declined substantially, the liability pressure of banks was controllable, and their allocation ability was strong [14]. - In terms of term structure, the yield of 7Y Treasury bonds declined the most; the performance of 1Y Treasury bonds was relatively weak, mainly affected by the increase in capital prices; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated significantly [14]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is limited information on fundamental data at the beginning of the year. Attention should be mainly paid to the PMI and inflation data in January. If the month - on - month data of PMI and PPI in January improve again, the upper limit of the interest - rate fluctuation range needs to be further adjusted upwards [24]. - Politically, the central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The guiding role of financial data for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is expected to weaken further, and the use of regular tools such as Treasury bond trading will be more flexible. The Ministry of Finance stated that the package of policies to boost domestic demand in 2026 will focus on stimulating private investment and promoting household consumption, and the coordination mechanism between fiscal and monetary policies will be further improved [25]. - In terms of capital, it is expected that capital prices will continue to rise slightly at the end of the month. In the long run, if the central bank adjusts to guide the overnight interest rate to fluctuate around the policy rate, it is equivalent to a substantial and long - term increase in capital prices [26].