● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 进入四季度，多地抢抓重大项目施工"黄金期"，推动项目建设取得积极进展。 中国证券报记者了解到，自国家发展改革委近日宣布将5000亿元新型政策性金融工具全部用于补充项目 资本金后，多地已开始陆续对接该工具，让资金及时落地形成实物工作量，同时一些地区还通过召开推 进会、动员会等方式，部署扩大有效投资相关工作。专家表示，在多路资金有力保障下，四季度基建投 资增速有望回升。 重大项目正加紧建设 金秋时节，正是项目建设的黄金时期。眼下，各地重大项目正加紧建设，在国庆中秋假期也不停工。 10月2日，渝昆高铁重点工程——小龙潭特大桥成功实现桥梁合龙，标志着这条西南地区高铁大通道建 设取得重大进展，为后续全线贯通奠定了坚实基础。作为国家"八纵八横"高速铁路网京昆通道的重要组 成部分，渝昆高铁线路全长约699公里，建成通车后，重庆至昆明铁路运行时间将大幅缩短。 10月3日，广西钦州抽水蓄能电站地下厂房交通洞贯通，长度超过1400米、横截面超过60平方米的长洞 直通地下百米深处。钦州抽水蓄能电站预计于2029年建成投产，项目建成后，每年最多可消纳清洁能源 21.6亿千瓦时，对应减少二氧化碳排放160万吨， ...

税收作为经济运行的"晴雨表"，成为经济向好发展的印证。 财政部数据显示，今年前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入148198亿元，同比增长0.3%。其中，全国税收 收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%。这是今年以来全国税收收入累计增速首次由负转正。 中诚信国际研究院分析师汪苑晖表示，前8月全国税收收入增速结束17个月负增长态势，是2024年以来 首次转正。主要税种方面，今年前8个月，国内增值税收入为47389亿元，同比增长3.2%，收入增速较 前7个月略有加快；企业所得税收入为31477亿元，同比增长0.3%，这是今年以来企业所得税收入累计 增速首次由负转正；国内消费税收入为11523亿元，同比增长2%；个人所得税收入为10547亿元，同比 增长8.9%。 "增速方面，个人所得税增速领跑主要税种，主要与去年相关税收优惠政策实施形成的低基数有关，同 时也与资本市场交易活跃、部分居民收入提升等有关。"汪苑晖说。 （文章来源：中国经营报） 今年以来，一般公共预算收入增速延续负增长态势、但降幅逐月收窄，7月全国一般公共预算收入累计 同比增速在年内首次转正，8月延续回暖态势，累计同比增长0.3%，高于年初预算目标增速（0 ...

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

报告要点 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 内需偏弱下的经济修复与政策应对 平减指数出现较长期负增长，通缩螺旋持续强化，且与过去两次有所不同。 2023 年二季度以来，GDP 平减指数连续 9 个季度负增长，包含 2025 年二季 度，已经达到三年时间。超过了亚洲金融危机时期的 6 个季度以及全球金融危 机冲击下的 3 个季度。我们认为尽管三轮平减指数为负的现象在表面上相似， 其背后的成因、机制与表现形式却存在实质性差异。1998 年和 2008 年是由 外部冲击诱发、通过快速政策刺激予以对冲的短期收缩，而本轮则是缺乏外部 冲击背景下持续时间偏长、结构特征较为复杂的一轮名义价格收缩周期。我们 认为不仅表征出物价下行的表层问题，更预示着经济运行内部机制面临深度调 整的转折期。 内需偏弱并非周期性，而是结构性。本轮通缩不是单纯的"需求不足"，而是由 房地产、债务和财政相互咬合、反复放大的链式反应：房价下跌和销量转弱削 弱了居民财富效应与企业利润，资产负债表恶化进一步压低银行风险偏好与信 贷派生；土地财政退潮令专项债从"增量投资"转为"缺口填补"，公共投资乘数 下降；名义增速与物价随之走弱，通缩预期被固化。正因如此，政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of effective government investment during the current phase of unconventional counter-cyclical macroeconomic regulation, highlighting its "key" role in expanding domestic demand [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Understanding Effective Investment - Effective investment by the government differs from competitive market investments made by enterprises, focusing on public goods and infrastructure related to market failures [9]. - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is crucial for effective investment, aiming to boost employment and market demand [9][11]. - Short-term investments should be aligned with long-term structural optimization to enhance development momentum [11][12]. - Infrastructure projects should be planned with an "appropriate advance" to ensure their effectiveness, avoiding both excessive and insufficient foresight [12][14]. - The concept of "positive externality" in investment reflects broader societal benefits beyond direct financial returns, as seen in projects like the Qinghai-Tibet Railway [15]. - Government investment can stimulate private sector investment by improving the overall economic environment and market confidence [16]. - Effective investment requires feasibility studies and high-quality operational plans to ensure project success [17]. Key Areas of Government Investment - Current government investment focuses on major national strategies and enhancing security capabilities in key sectors [17]. - The construction of sponge cities and comprehensive drainage systems is highlighted as a priority, with lessons learned from past failures in urban infrastructure [18][21]. - The integration of urban transportation systems, including subways and parking facilities, is essential for modern urban living and should be prioritized in planning [21][22]. - There is significant potential for investment in areas such as old residential building renovations and rural revitalization, which can drive economic growth [22][23]. - The availability of production factors like steel, cement, and labor is not a constraint; rather, the challenge lies in creating effective mechanisms for investment [23].

Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[2] Group 2: Trends in Fiscal Income and Expenditure - General fiscal income growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in August 2025, down 3.3 percentage points from July[4] - General fiscal expenditure growth also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July[4] - Government fund income fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the slowdown in general fiscal income growth[20] Group 3: Government Debt and Support Measures - The large-scale support phase from government debt financing is nearing its end, with net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaling 8.5 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025[9] - The issuance progress of special bonds was 72%, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024[9] - Future fiscal support for the economy may weaken as the issuance of new government debt approaches its limit[3] Group 4: Economic Implications - The decline in fiscal support and the impact of external factors may lead to downward pressure on economic growth[3] - Retail growth for related products has slowed since June due to promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies[3] - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure was 57.3%, slightly below the five-year average of 58.8%[2]

Government Debt Management - The National People's Congress suggests optimizing the structure of central and local government bonds, including general and special bonds, to support development while controlling risks [1] - The State Council proposes to establish a long-term regulatory mechanism for local government debt and to delegate some project review authority for special bonds [3] Debt Statistics - By the end of 2024, the national government legal debt ratio is projected to be 60.9%, with a total debt balance of 82.1 trillion yuan, leading to an adjusted debt ratio of 68.7% when including local government hidden debts [4] Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 500 billion yuan in discount treasury bonds, with competitive bidding scheduled for September 17, 2025 [6] - Henan Province has completed the issuance of 383.15 billion yuan in government bonds, with various maturities and purposes [8] - Zhejiang Province intends to issue 108.54 billion yuan in new special bonds, primarily for government investment fund projects [12] Financing Trends - In the first seven months of the year, enterprises in Henan raised 119.2 billion yuan through domestic capital markets, marking a 12.8% year-on-year increase [10] - There is a growing trend of local banks participating in the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with 50 bonds issued totaling over 260 billion yuan [21] Market Dynamics - The early redemption of urban investment bonds increased slightly in August, with a total of 1.56 trillion yuan of urban investment bonds maturing or being subject to redemption within the year [26]

Report Summary Report Title Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 37, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the issuance of new special bonds reached 131.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 114 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 77.6% [4]. - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 14.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 149.7 billion yuan [4]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 14.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 14.7 billion yuan [7]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 192.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 156.1 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 77.9% [10]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 415.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 245.8 billion yuan [13]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 608.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 401.8 billion yuan. As of September 14, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 78.2% [16]. - As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 79.4%, and the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 78.5% [21]. Data Details Special Bonds - New special bond issuance this week: 131.9 billion yuan, up 114 billion yuan week - on - week [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.6% [4]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 149.7 billion yuan [4]. General Bonds - New general bond issuance this week: 14.7 billion yuan, up 14.7 billion yuan week - on - week [7]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 14.7 billion yuan [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 79.4% [21]. Local Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 192.8 billion yuan, up 156.1 billion yuan week - on - week [10]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.9% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 415.6 billion yuan, up 245.8 billion yuan week - on - week [13]. - Net financing progress as of September 14: 78.5% [21]. Government Bonds - Net financing this week: 608.4 billion yuan, up 401.8 billion yuan week - on - week [16]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of September 14: 78.2% [16].

点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 8月新增社融增速下行，货币增速上升幅度放缓。 8月新增社融2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，存量社融增速从7月的9.0%下降到8.8%，这也 是社融同比增速自2024年11月以来第一次出现下行（图表1）。货币供应方面，8月M2同比增速为8.8%，持平于7月，终止了连续4个月的改善 势头（图表2）。8月M1同比增速从7月的5.6%上升到6.0%（图表3），延续上升势头，但同比增速的增加幅度明显放缓。 图表1：8月社融同比增速下行，这是自2024年10月后首次 信贷需求总体仍然偏弱，贷款利率低位震荡。 8月新增企业短期贷款700亿元，在去年低基数影响下同比多增2600亿元，企业中长期贷款、居 民短期贷款、居民中长期贷款分别同比少增200亿元、611亿元、1000亿元，反映整体信贷需求仍然较弱（图表4）。个人住房贷款利率持平于 3.1%的历史低位（图表5），企业贷款利率小幅下降0.1个百分点至3.1%（图表6）。 图表4：8月社融主要分项新增额的同比变化 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表3：8月M1同比增速升至6.0%，但增速上升势头放缓 资料 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The State Council issued an opinion to support qualified sports enterprises in listing, refinancing, issuing bonds, and asset securitization, aiming to enhance the financing services for the sports industry [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a plan to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and guiding local industries [3] - As of September 3, 537 special bond storage projects have been implemented nationwide, with a total scale of 146.6 billion yuan, primarily supporting the acquisition of existing residential properties [3] Group 2: International News - The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 52, exceeding expectations, with the new orders index increasing significantly, indicating robust service sector activity despite a contraction in employment [4] - The ADP employment report for August showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 54,000 jobs added, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent crude down by 0.76% and 0.90% respectively, while natural gas prices continued to rise [6] Group 4: Financial Market - On September 4, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.6 billion yuan, with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.6 billion yuan for the day [7] - The overall funding situation remained balanced and slightly loose, with DR001 and DR007 rates rising to 1.315% and 1.449% respectively [8] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising to 1.7535% [10] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H9 Long Control 01" dropping over 12% and "H1 Bi Di 01" increasing over 599% [12] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market downwards, with major indices declining, and trading volume increasing to 89.164 billion yuan [14] - Several convertible bonds announced adjustments to their conversion prices, with some opting not to adjust [16]