固定收益点评 一季度政府债发行的四大特点 岁末年初，政府债供给冲击、权益市场强预期、长债配置需求不足，为近 期债市走弱的核心扰动。一季度政府债供给压力如何，是否构成债市的重 要约束，我们对此展开分析。 一季度政府债发行计划： 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 08 年 月 日 本月债市或保持震荡，等待月底可能出现的配置机会。目前债市面临多重 冲击，1 月信贷和政府债券或面临冲量高峰期，同时股市走强、通胀阶段 性回升、央行购债规模有限等都对债市产生不利影响。但也需要看到，随 着债券利率上升，债券相对性价比也在发生变化。交易结构中配置力量或 逐步增强，以及交易型机构仓位的下降，意味着推动债市企稳力量在逐步 累积。因此，我们预计 1 月债市或保持震荡，短期利率存在冲高可能。月 底供给冲击过后，预计债市有望逐步修复，短期继续以短端加杠杆策略为 主，静待配置机会。 风险提示：外部风险超预期；货币政策超预期；风险偏好恢复超预期。 作者 分析师 杨业伟 执业证书编号：S0680520050001 邮箱：yangyewei@gszq.com 特点一：今年一季度地方债发行计划规模或低于去 ...

明明：综合判断，我们预计2026年我国GDP的增长目标仍会处于世界主要经济体的领先位置。 以下为对话全文，经21世纪经济报道记者整理。 谈国内经济整体预期： 财政政策将保持温和扩张 从驱动因素看，财政发力以及政策协同下的内需回暖和投资止跌回稳将是主要支撑；挑战则在于房地产 市场持续调整的影响、居民和企业信心修复节奏以及外部环境的不确定性。 21世纪经济报道记者余纪昕 2025年，国内资本市场表现出强劲韧性与活力。权益市场主要指数一度突破4000点，科技、银行等板块 表现亮眼；股债轮动之下，资金流向持续变化。站在"十五五"起点，中央经济工作会议已为2026年作出 部署，稳增长政策有望持续加码，市场信心有望进一步提升。同时，如何更好释放消费潜力、优化产业 结构，也将成为谱写高质量发展新篇章的关键动力。 在此背景下，21世纪经济报道专访了中信证券首席经济学家明明。明明指出，在"三驾马车"中，未来消 费将继续温和回升，成为经济增长的主要动力。新增专项债额度有望达到5万亿元，用于"两新""两 重"建设的超长期特别国债规模或将维持在1.3万亿元。在政策靠前发力下，或带动长债收益率全年呈 现"先下后上"的走势。 21世纪： ...

2026 年 01 月 05 日 宏 观 研 究 开年政策如何做？ ——从部委工作会议看政策脉络 一：财政货币协同，重在结构和效率 财政扩张从抬规模到提效率。2026 年财政扩张的重心逐步从总量 加码向结构增效转型，债务工具将加强协同以扩大乘数效应。在财政 工作的重点任务方面，财政从重投资转向投资、消费并重的趋势延续， 财政资金投向的主体预计进一步向居民倾斜、领域上侧重民生保障。 宏 观 专 题 货币更注重与财政协同。政府预计仍是 2026 年加杠杆的主体，而 央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政府加杠杆放缓的时段维持 利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将 继续压降；二是央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货 币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 投资要点： 广义财政扩张稳投资。中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有 限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥新增专项债作用，以"新 基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在 中长期促进产业转型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 53rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance amounts, and net financing scales of various types of bonds as of December 31, 2025, along with the planned issuance for the next week [3][7][9][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bonds - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.4% [3] - This week, new special bonds worth 1.45 billion yuan were issued, a 1.25 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week, and 8.74 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [3] - In December, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 13.49 billion yuan [4] New General Bonds - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [8] - This week, no new general bonds were issued, the same as the previous week, and 100 million yuan is planned to be issued next week [7] - In December, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 3.84 billion yuan [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 2.06 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week, and 11.77 billion yuan is planned for next week [9] - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 103.1% [10] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a 17.8 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week, and 39.5 billion yuan is planned for next week [13] - As of 12/31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.2% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 15.74 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week, and 51.27 billion yuan is planned for next week [15] - As of 12/31, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.4% [15]

2026年，地方项目建设进入"双硬约束"时代：合规不能碰，效益必须保。 很多地方管理者的困惑，已经从"有没有项目"，变成了"钱从哪来"。 单靠财政？收支矛盾加剧，土地收入波动，扛不住。 只靠专项债？额度竞争太激烈，使用范围有限，不够用。 纯市场化融资？成本高、风险大，不敢用。 破解这个困局，核心答案只有一个：资金拼盘。 不是简单"凑钱"，而是搭建"政策资金引路、市场化资金跟进、自有资金托底"的多元组合，形成"融资- 建设-运营-偿债-再投资"的良性闭环。 今天，我们从核心价值、实操设计、分规模模式三个维度，把这件事说透。没有空话，全是可直接套用 的逻辑和案例。 一、先想明白：资金拼盘的4大价值，不止是"多找几个钱袋子" 3. 优化风险：守住合规底线，避免"短贷长用" 很多人把资金拼盘理解为"多对接几个资金渠道"，这是误区。 它的本质，是通过科学组合，解决项目全周期的资金难题，同时守住合规和效益的底线。 1. 破解缺口：覆盖项目全生命周期 项目就像一棵树，不同生长阶段，需要不同的"养分"。 避免单一资金渠道断供，导致项目"中途夭折"。 2. 降低成本：算一笔直观的经济账 不同资金的成本，差异很大： 科学组合后， ...

2026 固收年报：锚定下移，震荡趋稳 [Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 固定收益深度报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 2025 年是债券市场转型之年，我国债券市场发生了一系列重要变化。（1） 收益率从单边趋势下行转向窄幅震荡格局，全年呈现"上有顶、下有底"特 征。一季度受流动性收紧与供给放量影响，长短端利率同步上行；二季度受 关税冲击引发避险情绪升温叠加宽松货币政策，收益率明显回落；三季度 权益走强与供给高峰共振，长端利率再度上行；四季度央行重启国债买卖 后长端先降后升，短端整体锚定政策利率运行。（2）机构交易策略深度重 构，从粗放的"趋势交易"转向精细的"波段交易+息票策略"复合策略。 （3）债市规模加速扩张，成为经济转型核心融资渠道。（4）大类资产相关 性出现明显演变，国债收益率与传统资产的传统联动逻辑被打破，国债收 益率与上证、美债和黄金的相关性均不同程度由负转正，"三大反转"成 ...

稳增长政策发力显效，12 月宏观经济景气度超预期回升 ———— 2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 12 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.1%， 比 11 月回升 0.9 个百分点；12 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.2%，比 12 月回升 0.7 个百分点，其 中，建筑业商务活动指数为 52.8%，比 11 月上升 3.2 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 49.7%，比 11 月回 升 0.2 个百分点；12 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.7%，比 11 月上升 1.0 个百分点。 12 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 12 月制造业 PMI 指数比上月大幅回升 0.9 个百分点至 50.1%，4 月以来首次回到扩张区间，超出市 场预期。首先，前期稳增长政策发力显效，叠加出口韧性偏强，12 月市场需求大幅修复，制造业新订 单指数回升 1.6 个百分点至 50.8%。9 月末 10 月初推出"两个 5000 亿"稳增长政策，其中 5000 亿新 型政策性金融工具已在 10 月投放完毕，对基建投资和制造业投资的拉动效应在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, bond market yields oscillated and then trended upward, with a term - structure differentiation. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2BP, and the 1 - year Treasury yield fell 5BP. The term spread widened by 7BP to 51BP [1][8]. - In January 2026, focus on the 2025 GDP performance and the possibility of a Q1 economic start, the potentially active front - loading of supply, the possibility of central bank reserve requirement ratio cuts and flexible and cautious interest rate cuts, and the opening of the seasonal interest rate downward window and institutional net - increase support for the start - of - the - year [4][76]. - The bond market interest rate is expected to oscillate downward in January. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to enter the market when the interest rate oscillates downward, and also pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of ultra - long bonds [5][77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review - In December, affected by factors such as the central bank's precise liquidity care, loose funds, and repeated disturbances of interest rate cut expectations, the bond market yield oscillated and then trended upward. There was term - structure differentiation, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2BP and the 1 - year Treasury yield falling 5BP. The term spread widened to 51BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds in December was overall bull - steep, with the decline of the medium - and short - term generally larger. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds rose overall [9]. - Overseas, the US inflation repair was less than expected. The Fed cut interest rates in December, but there were still large internal differences. The US bond yield trended upward, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly widened. The US dollar against the RMB exchange rate declined [10]. - Weekly, the bond market yield first rose and then fell in the first week, declined overall in the second week, continued to decline in the third week, and oscillated and rebounded in the fourth week [17]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 Bond Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Pay attention to the improvement of inflation (CPI's moderate recovery and PPI's continuous positive month - on - month growth), the resilience of exports under high - base effects and its support for PMI, the decline of real estate supply and demand data, and the 2025 GDP growth rate and the possibility of a 2026 economic start. If the weak fundamental recovery continues, the upward market expectations may reverse [2][21]. - **Supply**: The 2025 deficit rate may remain at 4%, with the quotas of Treasury bonds and special bonds increasing. It is estimated that the net supply of government bonds in January will be about 1.24 trillion yuan, mainly due to more special bond issuances. The overall supply pressure has increased compared with the same period in 2025 [2][38]. - **Funds**: At the end of the year, the central bank clearly cared about cross - year liquidity, and the funds were loose recently. Although the liquidity may be under pressure due to factors such as the front - loading of government bond issuance and a large certificate of deposit maturity scale, it is expected that the bond market funds in January will fluctuate in a balanced manner, and the interest rate is likely to decline seasonally after the Gregorian New Year. Pay attention to the possibility of the central bank increasing Treasury bond purchases [3][51]. - **Policy**: The December economic meeting pointed out the policy direction for 2026. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and more flexible and cautious interest rate cuts are likely to be implemented in the first quarter to cooperate with fiscal efforts. More flexible tools can be expected next year [3][61]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In December, various institutional allocation portfolios continued to increase holdings but slightly converged, and trading portfolios turned to small - scale net purchases. In January, focus on the opening of the traditional interest rate downward window, the possibility of allocation forces increasing positions before the Spring Festival, the possibility of trading portfolios entering the market flexibly, and the opportunity of narrowing the spread of ultra - long bonds [3][65]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy - In January, focus on the 2025 GDP performance and the Q1 economic start, the potentially active front - loading of supply, the possibility of central bank reserve requirement ratio cuts and flexible and cautious interest rate cuts, and the opening of the seasonal interest rate downward window and institutional net - increase support for the start - of - the - year [4][76]. - In terms of interest rates, the funds in January are likely to return to a balanced state after the cross - year under the central bank's care. There is room for the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to enter the market when the interest rate oscillates downward. For the short - end, the short - end interest rate has limited odds for short - term returns. For the long - end, the current 1.85% has reappeared allocation value. For ultra - long bonds, pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread if the market conditions are favorable [5][77]. 3.3 January Important Economic Calendar The report provides the expected values of important economic indicators to be announced in January, including PPI, CPI, M2, new RMB loans, and other data [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 52nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance and net - financing progress of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national debt [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.0%. Next week, 14.5 billion yuan is planned for issuance [4]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 120.4 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 0 billion yuan, a decrease of 6 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [7][16]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 38.4 billion yuan [4]. Local Bonds - As of December 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.8% [10]. - This week, the net - financing scale of local bonds was - 0.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.12 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [16]. National Debt - As of December 28, the net - financing progress of national debt was 98.2%. This week, the net - financing scale of national debt was 178 billion yuan, an increase of 225.3 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, the planned net - financing is 0 billion yuan [12]. Government Bonds - This week, the net - financing of government bonds was 174.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the progress of national debt net - financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.2%. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance progress of new special bonds as of 12/28 is 104.0%, with new special bonds issued this week amounting to 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week, and a planned issuance of 14.5 billion next week [4] - The cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December as of 12/28 is 3.84 billion, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December is 12.04 billion [4] - The issuance progress of new local bonds as of 12/28 is 102.8%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds is 96.3% [10][16] - The net financing progress of national debt as of 12/28 is 98.2%. The net financing scale of national debt this week is 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 0. The net financing of government bonds this week is 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [12] - The net financing scale of local bonds this week is -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **New Special Bonds** - This week's issuance: 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 104.0% [4] - Next week's planned issuance: 14.5 billion [4] - **New General Bonds** - This week's issuance: 0, a decrease of 6 billion compared to the previous week [7] - Cumulative issuance in December as of 12/28: 3.84 billion [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 96.3% [16] - **New Local Bonds** - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 102.8% [10] - This week's net financing scale: -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week [16] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [16] - **National Debt** - Net financing progress as of 12/28: 98.2% [12] - This week's net financing scale: 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 0 [12] - **Government Bonds** - This week's net financing: 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [12]