证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 十点新变化——2026 年地方两会点评 事 项 截至 2 月 3 日，全国已有 29 省市召开人代会，公布 GDP 目标等全年重点工作 目标。2 月 4 日至 5 日，内蒙古、安徽将召开会议，至此 2026 年地方两会将全 部召开完毕。根据已有 29 省市情况，我们总结出以下十点变化。 主要观点 一、今年 GDP 目标：广东省时隔七年再次设置区间目标 广东、浙江等 6 省今年设置区间目标，其中广东数值为 4.5%-5.5%。从 2012 年 至今情况看，全国设置区间目标的年份只有 2016 年和 2019 年，当年分别有 4 个、2 个经济大省设置区间目标，两次的共同点在于经济第一大省广东均在列。 我们估算 29 省市 GDP 目标加权增速，今年为 5.0%，去年为 5.24%。 二、"十五五"GDP 目标：北京新疆重设年均目标，均为区间形式 北京、新疆的变化可能较为值得关注，两地重设 GDP 年均目标且均为区间形 式。"十四五"期间，北京、新疆未设置 GDP 年均目标，其中新疆的表述为"保 持在合理区间、各年度视情提出"，与全国"十四五"规划公布的要求完全一 致。今年， ...

Report Summary 1. Key Data on Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 193.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 128.6 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for next week is 134.3 billion yuan [4] - As of January 31st, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 367.7 billion yuan [6] - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 39.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 18.6 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for next week is 75.5 billion yuan [9] 2. Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 310.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 107.7 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 579.4 billion yuan [11] - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was - 113.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 457.6 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 142 billion yuan [14] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 197.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 349.9 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 721.4 billion yuan [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - **Principles**: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - **Results**: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].

Core Viewpoint - The macro leverage ratio in China is projected to rise to 302.4% by the end of 2025, indicating a significant increase in debt levels relative to nominal GDP, necessitating structural optimization of leverage to support economic growth effectively [1][2]. Summary by Sections Macro Leverage Ratio Trends - The macro leverage ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points from 302.3% at the end of Q3 2025 to 302.4% at the end of Q4 2025. For the entire year, it rose by 11.7 percentage points, driven by low debt growth in the household and corporate sectors, while government debt expanded significantly [2]. - By the end of 2025, the debt balances of non-financial enterprises, households, and government sectors grew by 7.8%, 0.5%, and 17.0% respectively, leading to a total debt balance increase of 8.2%, while nominal GDP only grew by 4.0% [2]. Sectoral Contributions to Leverage Ratio - The rise in the macro leverage ratio was primarily driven by the corporate and government sectors, while the household sector continued to reduce its leverage. Factors such as the adjustment in the real estate market and slow income growth led households to decrease debt and increase savings [3]. - Government investment projects and a recovering corporate financing demand, supported by proactive fiscal policies, contributed to the increase in debt levels in the corporate and government sectors [3]. Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, which may lead to continued growth in corporate and government debt, putting upward pressure on the macro leverage ratio. However, this could be offset by an increase in nominal GDP growth [4]. - Recommendations for optimizing leverage structure include supporting financing for private SMEs and technology firms, while controlling the debt expansion of state-owned enterprises. This approach aims to stabilize the leverage ratio in the household sector and promote sustainable economic growth [5][6]. - The government is encouraged to increase fiscal spending in social welfare areas, which could enhance consumer spending potential. For instance, a 1% interest subsidy on household loans could reduce interest burdens significantly and stimulate consumption growth [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pattern of interest rates fluctuating within a range remains unchanged. Inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the fluctuations on a quarterly basis. On a weekly basis, the room for the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond to decline further is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the capital market, as well as the performance of 3 - 7Y varieties, while remaining cautious about ultra - long bonds [2][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Review - In late 2025, the pattern of "stronger supply than demand, and stronger external demand than domestic demand" deepened. In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of real GDP decreased due to the high - base effect, and the year - on - year decline of the GDP deflator narrowed slightly. In terms of structure, the contribution of investment to the economy weakened, while that of consumption and net exports increased [9]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded slightly, mainly supported by external demand. The year - on - year decline of cumulative fixed - asset investment widened, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all showing different degrees of decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline, mainly due to the withdrawal of the "trade - in" policy [9]. - Looking ahead, net exports are expected to continue to drive the economy in Q1 2026. Investment is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to improve marginally [9]. 3.2 Capital Prices: Slight Increase - From January 16th to January 22nd, the central bank conducted a net injection of 2439 billion yuan in the open market to support the capital market during the tax period. Capital prices continued to rise slightly, with DR001 rising above 1.4% and DR007 rising above 1.5%. The short - term disturbance factor was tax payment [10]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined slightly. Since 2026, the net financing volume of NCDs has been low, indicating that the pressure on banks' liability side is relatively controllable. Structural interest rate cuts have helped banks further reduce their liability costs [10]. 3.3 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From January 16th to January 22nd, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 619.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds increased significantly. Although the issuance amount of single - Treasury bonds remained high, the subscription sentiment was good [12]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Continued Recovery of the Bond Market - From January 16th to January 22nd, the bond market continued to recover. On the one hand, the strong upward trend of the equity market was curbed; on the other hand, the yields of NCDs declined substantially, the liability pressure of banks was controllable, and their allocation ability was strong [14]. - In terms of term structure, the yield of 7Y Treasury bonds declined the most; the performance of 1Y Treasury bonds was relatively weak, mainly affected by the increase in capital prices; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated significantly [14]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is limited information on fundamental data at the beginning of the year. Attention should be mainly paid to the PMI and inflation data in January. If the month - on - month data of PMI and PPI in January improve again, the upper limit of the interest - rate fluctuation range needs to be further adjusted upwards [24]. - Politically, the central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The guiding role of financial data for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is expected to weaken further, and the use of regular tools such as Treasury bond trading will be more flexible. The Ministry of Finance stated that the package of policies to boost domestic demand in 2026 will focus on stimulating private investment and promoting household consumption, and the coordination mechanism between fiscal and monetary policies will be further improved [25]. - In terms of capital, it is expected that capital prices will continue to rise slightly at the end of the month. In the long run, if the central bank adjusts to guide the overnight interest rate to fluctuate around the policy rate, it is equivalent to a substantial and long - term increase in capital prices [26].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive macro policy to support economic growth and social development, balancing immediate needs with long-term structural transformation [2][11]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit is set at around 4%, marking a historical high for China [3][12]. - New government debt will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, significantly exceeding average levels from prior years [3][12]. - Special bonds issued in 2025 will total 4.59 trillion yuan, the highest in five years, with a focus on infrastructure and social projects [3][12]. Group 2: Support for Key Sectors - Key areas such as social security, employment, technology, education, and health will receive substantial funding, with over 10 trillion yuan allocated in the first 11 months, accounting for over 40% of general public budget expenditures [4][13]. - A total of 2 trillion yuan will be allocated to replace existing hidden debts, and 800 billion yuan in new special bonds will be issued to support local government finances [4][13]. Group 3: Consumer Support Initiatives - In 2025, 300 billion yuan will be allocated for consumer subsidies, aimed at boosting sales by over 2.6 trillion yuan [4][12]. - The issuance of long-term special bonds will support consumption and economic transformation [4][12]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategies - In 2026, the fiscal deficit and total debt will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that spending in key areas continues to grow [5][14]. - The government will adopt a zero-based budgeting approach to reduce ineffective spending and increase investment in consumer support and social welfare [5][14]. Group 5: Financial Sector Reforms - Policies will be optimized to enhance support for technology innovation and manufacturing, with a focus on long-term investments in hard technology [7][15]. - The central bank will lower interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to reduce financing costs [6][15].

Fiscal Support and Debt Structure - In 2025, the total issuance of special bonds reached 4.59 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 590 billion yuan compared to 2024, marking the highest level in five years[3] - The proportion of special bonds used for debt repayment increased significantly, with 21 provinces raising their share, particularly in "self-audit and self-initiated" provinces[4] - Special bonds for land reserve accounted for about 17% of the total new special bonds issued in 2025, totaling approximately 545.1 billion yuan[6] Investment Trends and Structural Changes - The support for infrastructure investment weakened, with the proportion of general budget expenditure on infrastructure dropping to 18.6% in 2025, down from a stable range of 24%-25% in previous years[15] - Traditional infrastructure and social projects saw a notable decline in funding, particularly in key provinces focused on debt resolution, where funding for infrastructure projects decreased significantly[5] - The shift from traditional infrastructure to land reserve projects indicates a changing focus in investment strategies, with "investment in people" still in its early stages[4] Economic Outlook and Fiscal Balance - The fiscal surplus for 2025 is projected to be around 700 billion yuan, with a potential surplus of 400 billion yuan available for the first quarter of 2026, depending on the spending and revenue performance in December[7] - The issuance of local special bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to maintain the same level as in 2025, with limited incremental increases[7] Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with policy execution not meeting expectations and potential economic downturns exceeding forecasts[8]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market will enter a "game" era in 2025, driven by increased fiscal policy and a focus on "debt reduction + development," with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4% [5][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a nominal GDP growth rate of around 5.5% to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 to $30,000 by 2035, necessitating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%-7.5% from 2026 to 2035 [31][32] - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in investment strategies towards a focus on "coupon and leverage" rather than solely capital gains, as the market lacks clear trends [5][21] Group 1: Supply and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to expand, with a focus on "debt reduction + development," leading to a significant increase in special bond issuance [7][12] - The monetary policy will maintain a cautious approach, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 to support fiscal efforts and alleviate bank liabilities [5][13] - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to a high supply of government bonds in the second and third quarters of 2026, which may test market sentiment [5][12] Group 2: Economic Growth and Internal Demand - The report highlights a shift in global monetary policy towards differentiation, with domestic growth needing to focus more on internal demand expansion [32][40] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth and the establishment of a unified national market to enhance economic efficiency [31][32] - The expected economic growth will require a stable inflation rate and a focus on enhancing internal growth dynamics to recover from the impacts of previous economic models [31][32] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The report suggests prioritizing duration control in investment strategies for 2026, focusing on capturing short-term opportunities and structural adjustments in bond types [5][21] - The changing landscape of asset pricing and institutional demand may lead to differentiated investment behaviors among banks, insurance companies, and funds [5][12] - The report warns against a mechanical extension of duration for capital gains, advocating for a more active management approach to enhance returns [5][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter "infrastructure investment") industry policies focused on "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" and "promoting development", further implementing and refining the requirements of the "comprehensive debt resolution" plan. The industry has entered a critical stage of systematic reshaping, with risks being temporarily mitigated and the corporate financing environment showing marginal improvement [3][4][28]. - As implicit debts are gradually replaced, operating debts are expected to become the key area of focus. Debt resolution work will shift from debt replacement to building long - term mechanisms, achieving "full - scope and centralized" debt management. Future fiscal and tax system reforms are expected to deepen, better matching local fiscal powers and responsibilities, and assisting local debt resolution [18][19][28]. - With the continuous decline of land finance and the replacement of implicit debts, in - depth market - oriented transformation has become the main way out for infrastructure investment enterprises. These enterprises can seek transformation opportunities in the balance between debt resolution and development but need to be vigilant against market - related risks and changes in government - enterprise relationships [25][26][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **More Active Fiscal Policy and Coordinated Use of Multiple Tools**: In 2025, the fiscal policy was unprecedentedly strong, with the deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time and the broad deficit scale approaching 14 trillion yuan. Special bonds were used to support the infrastructure investment industry in resolving existing debts. By the end of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the one - time increase of 6 trillion yuan in special debt quota had been issued, reducing the average interest cost of debts by over 2.5 percentage points and saving over 450 billion yuan in interest payments. The scope of special bonds was further expanded, and in the second half of the year, 500 billion yuan of local debt balance limits were revitalized, and the new local debt quota for 2026 was advanced. Financial institutions also participated in debt resolution [4]. - **Improved Debt Risk Management Mechanisms**: In 2025, the central and local governments tightened the supervision network for implicit debts, strengthening control from multiple aspects such as debt monitoring, review, and accountability. The Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance was officially established, and local governments deepened the construction of monitoring mechanisms. The financing review was tightened, and the Ministry of Finance publicly announced typical cases of implicit debt accountability twice during the year [5]. - **Dynamic Optimization of Debt Risk List Management and Accelerated Exit from Platforms**: The government work report in 2025 emphasized the dynamic adjustment of the list of high - risk debt areas. Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin completed their debt resolution tasks and met the conditions for exiting high - risk debt provinces. By the end of 2025, over 70% of financing platforms had exited [6][8][17]. - **Deepened Transformation Policies**: Policies guided infrastructure investment enterprises to transform from traditional infrastructure investment carriers to market - oriented industrial entities. Multiple policies were introduced to support their transformation, and financing support such as science and technology innovation bonds and infrastructure REITs was provided [9]. - **Synergistic Support of Fiscal and Financial Policies**: Policies supported the infrastructure investment industry through four pillars: expanding effective investment, innovating financing mechanisms, optimizing the relationship between the central and local governments, and strengthening macro - coordination, aiming to achieve the goal of "resolving debts in development and promoting development in debt resolution" [10]. 3.2 Policy Impact - **Accelerated Implementation of Local Government Replacement Bonds and Mitigated Short - term Debt Risks**: By December 31, 2025, 2 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds for replacing existing implicit debts were issued, and the new local government bonds reached 5,361.69 billion yuan, exceeding the annual limit. The replacement of implicit debts was accelerated, and short - term debt pressure was relieved [13]. - **Tightened Supply of Urban Investment Bonds**: In 2025, 7,880 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5,181.873 billion yuan and a net financing of - 238.187 billion yuan. The total issuance decreased by 13.26% year - on - year. The net financing was negative for most months, and the supply of urban investment bonds continued to tighten [14]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels and Decreased Bond Financing Costs**: Infrastructure investment enterprises adjusted their financing channels, with an increase in the proportion of credit financing and a decrease in the proportion of bond financing. The bond financing costs decreased significantly, and the comprehensive financing costs also dropped to some extent [15]. - **Differentiated Negative Public Opinions**: In 2025, the number of new bond - issuing infrastructure investment enterprises on the continuous overdue list and the number of newly defaulted non - standard products decreased significantly, but the number of enterprises with multiple historical bill overdue cases showed regional differences. The long - term fundamental improvement of infrastructure investment enterprises' refinancing still requires time, and issues such as operating debts, interest payment pressure, and capital occupation need attention [16]. - **New Stage of Debt Resolution and Phased Achievements in "Exiting Platforms" and Transformation**: Policies promoted the transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises, and by the end of 2025, nearly 750 enterprises declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, accounting for about 19% of bond - issuing infrastructure investment enterprises. Local debt management entered a new stage [17]. 3.3 Industry Development Outlook and Opportunities - **Operating Debts Becoming the Key Focus**: As implicit debts are gradually resolved, operating debts will become the key area of focus. Future resolution methods may be more market - based, and local governments have already introduced policies to promote the resolution of operating debts [18][19][20]. - **Continuous Implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution" Policy**: Currently, debt resolution mainly relies on financial means, and substantial repayment is insufficient. Future fiscal and tax system reforms are expected to deepen, and debt resolution methods will become more refined and region - specific [21][22][24]. - **Transformation Opportunities for Infrastructure Investment Enterprises**: Infrastructure investment enterprises can participate in areas such as urban renewal, smart cities, and green infrastructure construction. However, they need to be vigilant against risks such as market - related and compliance risks and changes in government - enterprise relationships during the transformation process [25][26][27].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local government bonds, and national bonds in the week up to January 11, 2026, as well as the planned issuance and net financing scale for the following week [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 87.4 billion yuan, a 72.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 22.8 billion yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 87.4 billion yuan [2] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 1 billion yuan, a 1 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 100 million yuan [2] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the local government bond net financing scale was 114.7 billion yuan, a 97.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 60.9 billion yuan [2] National Bond Net Financing - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 495 billion yuan, a 495 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 339.2 billion yuan [5] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 609.7 billion yuan, a 592.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 278.3 billion yuan [6]