Market Overview - A-shares reached a new high for the year, driven by domestic policy initiatives and liquidity easing, with net purchases in margin trading hitting 18.9 billion CNY, a three-month high[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3500 points, led by bank stocks, reflecting effective growth stabilization policies and valuation recovery logic[4] - The Nasdaq index rose, driven by technology giants like Nvidia, despite weakened interest rate cut expectations and ongoing trade tensions[4] Commodity Performance - Structural rebound in commodities, with black metals (coking coal +3.76%, rebar +1.45%) and gold (+1.79%) leading gains, indicating improved domestic demand expectations[4] - However, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, with futures market strategies under pressure (momentum -1.51%) due to a lack of fundamental support[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds (score 6): Supported by liquidity easing and optimistic sentiment, focus on MLF renewal scale and seasonal recovery of wealth management products[5] - Overseas equities (score 6): Overweight non-US markets (e.g., Hong Kong, South Korea) to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Gold (score 5): Strengthened safe-haven appeal due to geopolitical conflicts and growth slowdown, though short-term performance may be suppressed by rising risk appetite[5] - A-shares (score 5): Valuation recovery supported by high dividend defensive attributes, while avoiding sectors with declining profit expectations[5] - Commodities (score 4): Overall underweight due to weak supply-demand dynamics[5] Risk Factors - Policy adjustment risks; market volatility risks; geopolitical shocks; economic data validation risks; liquidity transmission risks[6]