政府工作报告：开局年哪些新思路？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 05 日 [Table_Author] 2026 年政府工作报告点评 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 执业证书：S0590125110064 与此同时，民生工程占比同样偏高，体现了以民生为底色的发展逻辑；绿色低碳 工程稳中有升，结合"十五五"期间碳排放量化目标并未明显调低来看，绿色低 碳仍是这一时期的重点方向，为 2030 年前实现碳达峰目标奠定坚实基础。 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 事件：3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大四次会议作政 府工作报告。 作为"十五五"开局之年的政府工作报告，今年经济工作思路与以往有不同的视 角，即从长期来为中国经济谋划，以更大决心推动中国经济的经济转型。正是基 于这一视角，我 ...

作为银行 "开门红" 信贷投放的关键节点，1月金融数据历来是观察年初经济运行的重要窗口。 中国人民银行2月13日发布的2026年1月金融统计数据显示，当月金融数据实现"开门红"：广义货币 （M2）同比增长9.0%创近年新高，社会融资规模增量7.22万亿元，创单月历史新高，人民币贷款增加 4.71万亿元实现季节性投放高峰。 受访专家表示，1月金融数据既体现了财政货币政策靠前发力的显著效果，也反映出当前实体经济需求 仍存修复空间，后续政策将延续协同发力格局，为经济平稳开局提供坚实支撑。 2月3日拍摄的衢丽铁路衢江特大桥跨芝溪连续梁（无人机照片）。新华社发 社融增量创下历史新高 M2增速站上9%成为1月金融数据的突出亮点。数据显示，1月末M2余额达347.19万亿元，同比增速较上 月提升0.5个百分点、较上年同期提高2.0个百分点，超出市场预期。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受风口财经记者采访时表示，M2超预期增长是多重因素共同作用 的结果，年初信贷集中投放带动存款派生增加、理财等资管产品季节性回表、资本市场活跃推动居民存 款活化，再叠加去年同期的低基数效应，共同推动非银存款同比明显多增，成为M2上行的核心支撑 ...

业内专家表示，上年适度宽松的货币政策具有累积效应，存量政策效果还会持续显现。2026年初，央行 又推出了一揽子支持实体经济高质量发展的货币金融举措，这些增量政策也会和存量政策发挥协同效 应，进一步为实体经济平稳增长和物价合理回升营造适宜的货币金融环境。 直接融资加快发展 2025年，社会融资规模中，政府债券融资、企业债券融资和非金融企业境内股票融资均较上年明显增 多。特别是，通过创新推出债券市场"科技板"，全年发行科技创新债券超过1.5万亿元，资本市场投融 资新生态也在加速形成，专精特新企业、战略性新兴产业首发募集资金额占比显著提升。 2月10日，央行发布2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告。报告显示，从金融总量、价格、结构等多维指 标看，2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果已逐步显现。金融总量保持较快增长，年末社会融资规模存量、 广义货币供应量（M2）同比分别增长8.3%和8.5%，明显高于名义GDP（国内生产总值）增速。 人民币贷款增速还原地方化债影响后也在7%左右，信贷支持力度持续较强。社会综合融资成本低位下 行，2025年12月新发放企业贷款和个人住房贷款利率均在3.1%左右。信贷结构也在持续优化，2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the high-quality development of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Effects - The effects of the moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2025 are gradually becoming evident, with social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) growing by 8.3% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [4]. - The interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans were approximately 3.1% in December 2025, indicating a sustained low financing cost [4]. - Key areas such as technology loans, green loans, inclusive loans, elderly care industry loans, and digital economy loans saw year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 20.2%, 10.9%, 50.5%, and 14.1%, respectively, with all key area loans maintaining double-digit growth [4]. Group 2: Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The PBOC will continue to strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, as highlighted in a recent State Council meeting, to enhance policy effectiveness and guide social capital in promoting consumption and investment [5]. - Three main models for enhancing coordination include maintaining market liquidity through open market operations, optimizing financial resource allocation via "re-lending + fiscal subsidies," and using guarantees to share risk costs [5]. Group 3: Diversification of Financing Channels - In 2025, there was a notable increase in government bond financing, corporate bond financing, and non-financial corporate domestic stock financing, with over 1.5 trillion yuan in technology innovation bonds issued, accelerating the formation of a new capital market investment ecosystem [6]. - The ongoing innovation in the capital market has led to a richer and more diverse range of products and services, improving the alignment between financial market supply and the financing needs of new growth areas [7]. Group 4: Adjustments in Resident Asset Allocation - In the third quarter of 2025, the growth rate of household deposits showed a high-level decline, prompting discussions about potential "loss" of bank deposits [8]. - Experts suggest that this shift in asset allocation towards bank wealth management and asset management products does not significantly impact overall liquidity, as most funds are redirected back into the banking system [9]. Group 5: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC aims to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation and improve counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support a stable economic environment [11]. - Key strategies include maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals, optimizing financial services for high-quality development, and ensuring effective implementation of financial support policies for consumption and innovation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support domestic demand expansion and enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness in the upcoming stages [1][7]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Execution in 2025 - In 2025, the banking system maintained ample liquidity, with a notable increase in social financing scale, including significant growth in government bonds, corporate bonds, and non-financial corporate domestic stock financing compared to the previous year [4]. - The cumulative effects of the moderately loose monetary policy from the previous year are expected to continue impacting the financial structure, with a decrease in traditional bank credit proportion [4]. Group 2: Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The report identifies three main ways to enhance the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies: 1. Maintaining market liquidity through open market operations to support efficient government bond issuance [7]. 2. Utilizing "re-lending + fiscal subsidies" to optimize financial resource allocation [7]. 3. Sharing risk costs through guarantees to increase financing support for enterprises [7]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Liquidity - Recent trends show a slowdown in growth of household and corporate deposits, while the scale of wealth management and asset management products has increased significantly [9]. - The shift in asset allocation does not imply a significant change in overall liquidity, as most funds are expected to return to the banking system [9]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to implement counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy while ensuring reasonable growth in financial totals [11]. - The focus will be on enhancing financial support for key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate and advancing interest rate marketization reforms [12].

Core Viewpoint - The coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies in China are aimed at boosting investment and consumption, ensuring a strong economic start for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Coordination - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of monetary policies, including structural interest rate cuts, while the Ministry of Finance introduced a package of fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand [1]. - The alignment of fiscal and monetary policies reflects an improvement in macroeconomic governance and enhances the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies [1][2]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies has evolved from simple total coordination to deeper integration at the mechanism level, with the PBOC's re-lending tools complementing fiscal interest subsidy policies [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The synergy between fiscal and monetary policies has produced tangible results, creating a situation where the combined effect is greater than the sum of individual efforts [3]. - A favorable monetary environment supports the expansion of fiscal policy implementation space, reducing financing costs for households and businesses while alleviating fiscal interest payment pressures [3]. - The recent fiscal policies, including interest subsidies and guarantees, exemplify this collaborative approach, effectively lowering financing costs and sharing risks [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus of fiscal and monetary policy coordination is expected to shift towards areas such as technological innovation and real estate inventory reduction [4]. - The PBOC is likely to normalize the buying and selling of government bonds to stabilize liquidity fluctuations caused by concentrated bond issuance [4][5]. - The collaboration will continue to leverage fiscal funds to attract more financial resources, supporting sectors like computing infrastructure, green development, and urban renewal [5].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies in China has evolved from simple quantitative coordination to a deeper integration at the mechanism level, effectively supporting the real economy and directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Collaboration - The establishment of a joint working group by the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China, along with multiple "re-lending + fiscal subsidy" policy combinations, has demonstrated a close collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [1]. - The combination of fiscal policy's leverage and guidance with the ample liquidity released by monetary policy has resulted in a synergistic effect, achieving more than the sum of its parts [1][2]. - The use of government financing guarantees has helped alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises and the agricultural sector, showcasing the effectiveness of fiscal policy tools [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2026, the focus of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration is expected to center on areas such as technological innovation and real estate inventory reduction, with regular operations in government bond trading anticipated [3]. - The monetary policy will provide a suitable financial environment for fiscal efforts, while new policy financial tools will leverage fiscal funds to attract more financial resources for key sectors [3][4]. - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies will continue to enhance the effectiveness of funding directed towards small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and consumer spending [4].

Core Insights - The financial data for 2025 indicates a steady growth in monetary credit and an optimized structure, reflecting the effectiveness of financial supply-side structural reforms [1][2] Group 1: Monetary and Credit Growth - As of the end of 2025, the total social financing scale reached 442.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 271.91 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year [8] - The broad money (M2) balance stood at 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [1][7] Group 2: Direct Financing and Structural Optimization - Direct financing accounted for 46.9% of the social financing scale increment, with an increase of 16.7 trillion yuan, marking a 7.8 percentage point rise compared to 2020 [4][5] - Government bond financing contributed nearly 40% to the new social financing, highlighting the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [2][6] Group 3: Cost of Financing - The overall financing cost for society has decreased, with the average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans around 3.1%, down by 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [10] - The financing costs in key areas such as technology and digital economy have also seen significant reductions, with new loans in these sectors showing lower interest rates compared to the previous year [11] Group 4: Deposit Growth - In 2025, RMB deposits increased by 26.41 trillion yuan, with household deposits growing steadily by 14.6 trillion yuan [12] - Non-financial corporate deposits rose significantly, increasing by 2.3 trillion yuan, while deposits from non-bank financial institutions also saw a notable rise of 6.4 trillion yuan [12]

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity [11][12] - The government adopted a proactive approach with a front-loaded expenditure rhythm, reflecting a clear intention to support the economy [14][16] Group 2: Monetary Policy Review for 2025 - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, maintaining liquidity at a reasonable level with low funding rates [23][28] - The central bank's interest rate adjustments were more cautious, with only one reduction of 10 basis points in 2025 compared to more significant cuts in 2024 [28][32] - Credit issuance was front-loaded, with new loans in the first quarter reaching 9.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 66.3% of the total for the first three quarters [32] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in 2026, focusing on economic growth, structural transformation, and comprehensive reform [61][62] - The deficit rate is anticipated to remain around 4%, with special bonds and new special debt slightly expanding compared to 2025 [61][63] - The expenditure structure will prioritize investments in social welfare and new infrastructure, while also addressing debt resolution [61][70] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement one interest rate cut of approximately 10 basis points to ensure liquidity remains ample [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Structural Reforms - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible and prudent policy approach, with a resumption of operations in October 2025 [42][45] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - Structural reforms will focus on macro tax burdens, central-local relations, and the sustainability of the social security system [3][61]

Group 1 - The core focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is the implementation of a more proactive macro policy, which will directly influence China's fiscal and financial policies over the next five years [1][2] - There is a significant emphasis on "unlocking potential" through the management of existing assets, with state-owned administrative assets totaling 68.2 trillion yuan and net assets of 55.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating a vast resource that can be activated for economic growth [1] - Recent initiatives, such as Anhui's conference on "large asset" management, aim to activate idle government assets and resources, potentially leading to new industries and job creation [1] Group 2 - The plan highlights the need for "collaboration" between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance the roles of employment, consumption, investment, and trade, promoting an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [2] - An example of this collaboration is the recent implementation of fiscal subsidies for consumer loans, demonstrating a joint effort to support consumption [2] - Despite potential challenges and uncertainties in the next five years, the underlying strengths of China's industrial system, market scale, talent reserves, and innovation capacity remain intact, supporting the long-term positive trend in economic and social development [2]