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宏观量化经济指数周报20250817:结构性政策工具或是三季度施力重点-20250817
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-17 10:04
Economic Indicators - As of August 17, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.08%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.89%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of August is 50.07%, down 0.04 percentage points from July, and the demand index is 49.89%, down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.68%, unchanged from last week[6] Consumer Trends - As of August 10, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, compared to a 7% increase in July[7] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 2.826 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 17.7%, close to July's decline of 18.6%[7] Investment Insights - The operating rate of asphalt plants is at 32.90%, up 1.20 percentage points from last week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 40.08%, up 0.85 percentage points from last week[25] - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities recorded 11.6853 million square meters, down 15.53% from the previous week[25] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from last week, indicating a potential weakening in exports[31] - South Korea's export total for the first ten days of August shows a year-on-year decline of 4.30%, a drop of 13.60 percentage points from July[31] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of August 17, 2025, is at -0.91%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan in the week, with the 7-day SHIBOR rate rising from 1.4320% to 1.4650%[40]