Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.09%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.89%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for August is at 50.08%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, and the demand index is at 49.89%, also down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[7] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.70%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week, indicating continued expansion of liquidity in August[11] - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion CNY MLF operation on August 25, with a net liquidity injection of 3,000 billion CNY for the month, doubling the net injection from July[13] - Total mid-term and short-term liquidity net injection for August is 6,000 billion CNY, which is twice the net injection scale of July[13] Industrial and Consumer Trends - Industrial production shows marginal recovery, with the operating rate for automotive tires increasing by 1.67 percentage points for full steel tires and 1.06 percentage points for semi-steel tires[14] - Passenger vehicle retail sales for the week ending August 17 averaged 59,068 units per day, a year-on-year increase of 3,867 units, with a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year[20] - The real estate market shows a 15.1% year-on-year decline in sales area for 30 major cities, although the decline has narrowed compared to July[7] Export Performance - High-frequency data indicates that cargo throughput at monitored ports remains high, suggesting strong resilience in exports for August[7] - South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of August is at 7.60%, indicating a recovery compared to July[31] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.12 CNY/kg, down 0.08 CNY/kg from last week, which may affect the CPI for August[37] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 66.93 USD/barrel, up 0.71 USD/barrel from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures settled at 3,385.06 USD/ounce, down 10.50 USD/ounce[37]

Economic Indicators - As of August 17, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.08%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.89%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of August is 50.07%, down 0.04 percentage points from July, and the demand index is 49.89%, down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.68%, unchanged from last week[6] Consumer Trends - As of August 10, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, compared to a 7% increase in July[7] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 2.826 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 17.7%, close to July's decline of 18.6%[7] Investment Insights - The operating rate of asphalt plants is at 32.90%, up 1.20 percentage points from last week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 40.08%, up 0.85 percentage points from last week[25] - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities recorded 11.6853 million square meters, down 15.53% from the previous week[25] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from last week, indicating a potential weakening in exports[31] - South Korea's export total for the first ten days of August shows a year-on-year decline of 4.30%, a drop of 13.60 percentage points from July[31] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of August 17, 2025, is at -0.91%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan in the week, with the 7-day SHIBOR rate rising from 1.4320% to 1.4650%[40]

Economic Indicators - As of August 10, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is at 49.90%, down 0.02 percentage points[8] - The ELI index is at -0.84%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal decline in loan demand for July[13] Loan and Financing Trends - It is expected that July's new RMB loans will be around 200 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60 billion yuan[16] - Government bond financing in July reached 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 630 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a projected social financing scale increase of 1.10-1.20 trillion yuan[16] Industrial Production - The industrial production index shows a decline in overall activity, with key sectors like automotive and chemicals experiencing weaker operating rates compared to last year[9] - The operating rate for automotive tires is at 61.00%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week[18] Consumer Behavior - In July, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 1.834 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%[24] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.44 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week[40] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous week, indicating potential weakening in export activity[34] - South Korea's July export growth is at 5.90%, a 1.60 percentage point increase from June but down 8.00 percentage points year-on-year[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[2] - The government is expected to continue expanding financial support for new industrialization, aiming for a mature financial system by 2027[50]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.07%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - In July, the ECI supply index averaged 50.11%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, and the demand index averaged 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - The real estate market saw a 18.6% year-on-year decline in sales area for new homes in 30 major cities, totaling 6.49 million square meters in July[1] Bond Market and Tax Adjustments - The ELI index is at -0.72%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in liquidity for the real economy[1] - The adjustment of the bond value-added tax may lead to increased allocation of funds to non-financial corporate bonds and other real economy assets[1] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds in the third quarter, focusing on structural monetary policy tools[1] Market Trends and Risks - The export index remains resilient, with port cargo throughput maintaining high levels, although there are concerns about the impact of new tariffs on re-export trade[1] - The report highlights risks including uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[1]

Economic Indicators - As of July 27, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[7] - The ELI index as of July 27, 2025, is -0.81%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating that the "anti-involution" policy has not yet changed the monetary policy stance[11] Industrial Production - The operating rate for major industries remains stable, with the steel mill blast furnace operating rate at 83.48%, unchanged from last week[15] - The inventory of iron ore at ports is recorded at 137.94 million tons, up 12.34 million tons from the previous week[16] Consumption Trends - Weekly average sales of passenger cars reached 58,207 units, an increase of 7,266 units year-on-year, but a decrease of 12% month-on-month[21] - The consumer price index for textiles recorded 105.86 points, down 1.36 percentage points from the previous week[22] Investment Insights - The land supply area in 100 major cities reached 1,387.59 million square meters, up 8.81% week-on-week[25] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 133.91 million square meters, up 3.50% week-on-week[26] Export Performance - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1,592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export prices[34] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports from July 7 to July 13 was 26,676.6 million tons, up 2.43% week-on-week[33] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.72 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[39] - The Brent crude oil futures price is recorded at $68.79 per barrel, down $0.26 from the previous week[39] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 16,563 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan for the week[44] - The 7-day SHIBOR rate increased from 1.4770% to 1.6200% over the week, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions[44] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could impact trade dynamics[48] - The effectiveness of newly implemented policies may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[48]

Economic Indicators - As of July 20, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.13%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[9] - The ELI index is at -0.91%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential acceleration in structural policy tool deployment[12] Investment and Financing - In the first half of 2025, China’s bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%[15] - Net financing from bonds reached 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the increase in social financing scale[15] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds in June 2025 was 2.08%, down 32 basis points from the previous year[15] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending July 13, 2025, was 47,548 units, an increase of 4,218 units year-on-year[22] - Retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-13, 2025, totaled 571,000 units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, but a 5.0% decrease month-on-month[22] Construction and Real Estate - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities decreased by 18.63% week-on-week, totaling 12.75 million square meters[26] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 15.63% week-on-week, amounting to 1.0916 million square meters[26] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables remains at 4.38 yuan/kg[38] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.05/barrel, down $0.74 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,351.70/ounce, up $17.62[38]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.14%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of July is at 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from June[7] - The real estate sales area in 30 major cities has a year-on-year growth rate of -26.5%, worsening from June's -10.6%[7] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry is 64.56% for full steel tires and 72.92% for semi-steel tires, with increases of 0.81 and 2.51 percentage points respectively[15] - The coastal power plants' load rate reached an average of 85.00%, up 2.29 percentage points from the previous week[14] Export and Trade - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The total export amount for South Korea in early July shows a year-on-year growth of 9.50%, up 4.60 percentage points from June[30] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.97%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[10] - The net monetary withdrawal for the week is 2265 billion yuan, with 4257 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted[40] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, and the effectiveness of new policies may fall short of market expectations[47]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to June, while the demand index remained stable[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.03 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.90%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal recovery in loan demand[11] - New RMB loans are expected to be between CNY 1.80 trillion and CNY 2.0 trillion in June, slightly lower than the same period last year by CNY 0.28 trillion to CNY 0.13 trillion[14] - Government net financing reached CNY 1.41 trillion in June, an increase of CNY 0.7 trillion year-on-year, contributing to a projected social financing scale increase of CNY 3.6 trillion to CNY 3.8 trillion[14] Consumption and Production Insights - Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 15% year-on-year, improving from 13% in May[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending June 30 were 95,374 units, slightly down from the previous year[21] - The electricity load of coastal power plants averaged 82.71%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong industrial production[16] Export and Price Trends - The SCFI and CCFI indices for export container prices fell by 98.02 points and 26.35 points, respectively, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is CNY 20.38 per kg, showing a slight increase, while the price of key monitored vegetables is CNY 4.35 per kg, down slightly[37] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[46]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.16%, down 0.07 percentage points from May, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.97%, unchanged from May, while the consumption index is at 49.75%, also unchanged from May[7] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Passenger car retail sales have improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24% as of June 22, up from 20% earlier in the month[7] - Real estate sales area in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 17.8% as of June 28, worsening from a decline of 3.3% in May[7] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[37] Group 3: External Demand and Trade - Port cargo throughput growth is at 0.8% year-on-year as of June 22, down from 4.4% in May, indicating a reduction in export disturbances due to tariffs[7] - The SCFI index for container shipping rates is at 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous week[32] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] - The central bank's net monetary injection for the week is 106.72 billion yuan, following a reverse repurchase operation of 202.75 billion yuan[41]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.15%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.93%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.17%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from May, with the demand index also at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.96%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index has slightly increased to 49.76%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 8.6% as of June 21, indicating a weakening in market sentiment[7] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 20% year-on-year for the first half of June, showing improvement compared to the previous month[7] - The government plans to distribute 138 billion yuan in central funds for "trade-in" programs in the third and fourth quarters, which may support consumption in the long term[7] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.02%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[11] - A total of 4.17 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit will mature this month, with only 2.96 trillion yuan issued, suggesting ongoing financing pressure in the banking system[13] - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan through reverse repos to support liquidity ahead of the quarter-end[13] Risks and Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]