Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.03 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The construction sector shows improvement with a significant increase in infrastructure workload in early September, with a year-on-year improvement in construction activity[6] Market Trends - The ELI index remains stable at -0.69%, indicating rising market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading[11] - Despite seasonal recovery in August financial data, new loan demand remains weak, posing risks to social financing growth and M2 supply[14] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.8% increase in transaction area in major cities compared to a -9.9% decline in August[6] Consumer Behavior - Passenger car retail sales in early September show a decline of 10.0% year-on-year, with average daily sales recorded at 43,483 units[21] - The consumer price index for key monitored vegetables is at 5.11 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase[38] Investment Insights - The operating rate for asphalt plants increased by 6.80 percentage points to 34.90%, indicating a recovery in infrastructure investment[26] - The average price of ordinary Portland cement is recorded at 272.80 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase[27] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in early September is at 3.80%, recovering from a previous decline[32] - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased to 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous week[33] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 196.1 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1.2645 trillion yuan[41] - The 10-year government bond yield increased slightly to 1.8650% from 1.8466% at the beginning of the week[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of real estate market improvements[48]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.90%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.04 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.68%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential decrease in new loans for August[11] - New loans in August are expected to be between 800 billion and 850 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion to 50 billion CNY[15] - Government bond financing in August is projected at 1.33 trillion CNY, down 510 billion CNY year-on-year[15] Real Estate Market - As of September 6, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai aim to ease purchase restrictions, which may stabilize the real estate market[7] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for automotive tires has decreased, with full steel tires at 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points from last week[16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.91 CNY/kg, down 0.05 CNY/kg from last week, while the price of key monitored vegetables is 5.08 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg[40] Export and Shipping - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export shipping costs[34] - South Korea's export growth rate for August is 1.30%, down 4.60 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown in export performance[34]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.09%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.89%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for August is at 50.08%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, and the demand index is at 49.89%, also down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[7] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.70%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week, indicating continued expansion of liquidity in August[11] - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion CNY MLF operation on August 25, with a net liquidity injection of 3,000 billion CNY for the month, doubling the net injection from July[13] - Total mid-term and short-term liquidity net injection for August is 6,000 billion CNY, which is twice the net injection scale of July[13] Industrial and Consumer Trends - Industrial production shows marginal recovery, with the operating rate for automotive tires increasing by 1.67 percentage points for full steel tires and 1.06 percentage points for semi-steel tires[14] - Passenger vehicle retail sales for the week ending August 17 averaged 59,068 units per day, a year-on-year increase of 3,867 units, with a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year[20] - The real estate market shows a 15.1% year-on-year decline in sales area for 30 major cities, although the decline has narrowed compared to July[7] Export Performance - High-frequency data indicates that cargo throughput at monitored ports remains high, suggesting strong resilience in exports for August[7] - South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of August is at 7.60%, indicating a recovery compared to July[31] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.12 CNY/kg, down 0.08 CNY/kg from last week, which may affect the CPI for August[37] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 66.93 USD/barrel, up 0.71 USD/barrel from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures settled at 3,385.06 USD/ounce, down 10.50 USD/ounce[37]

Economic Indicators - As of August 17, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.08%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.89%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of August is 50.07%, down 0.04 percentage points from July, and the demand index is 49.89%, down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.68%, unchanged from last week[6] Consumer Trends - As of August 10, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, compared to a 7% increase in July[7] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 2.826 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 17.7%, close to July's decline of 18.6%[7] Investment Insights - The operating rate of asphalt plants is at 32.90%, up 1.20 percentage points from last week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 40.08%, up 0.85 percentage points from last week[25] - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities recorded 11.6853 million square meters, down 15.53% from the previous week[25] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from last week, indicating a potential weakening in exports[31] - South Korea's export total for the first ten days of August shows a year-on-year decline of 4.30%, a drop of 13.60 percentage points from July[31] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of August 17, 2025, is at -0.91%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan in the week, with the 7-day SHIBOR rate rising from 1.4320% to 1.4650%[40]

Economic Indicators - As of August 10, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is at 49.90%, down 0.02 percentage points[8] - The ELI index is at -0.84%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal decline in loan demand for July[13] Loan and Financing Trends - It is expected that July's new RMB loans will be around 200 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60 billion yuan[16] - Government bond financing in July reached 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 630 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a projected social financing scale increase of 1.10-1.20 trillion yuan[16] Industrial Production - The industrial production index shows a decline in overall activity, with key sectors like automotive and chemicals experiencing weaker operating rates compared to last year[9] - The operating rate for automotive tires is at 61.00%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week[18] Consumer Behavior - In July, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 1.834 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%[24] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.44 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week[40] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous week, indicating potential weakening in export activity[34] - South Korea's July export growth is at 5.90%, a 1.60 percentage point increase from June but down 8.00 percentage points year-on-year[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[2] - The government is expected to continue expanding financial support for new industrialization, aiming for a mature financial system by 2027[50]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.07%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - In July, the ECI supply index averaged 50.11%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, and the demand index averaged 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - The real estate market saw a 18.6% year-on-year decline in sales area for new homes in 30 major cities, totaling 6.49 million square meters in July[1] Bond Market and Tax Adjustments - The ELI index is at -0.72%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in liquidity for the real economy[1] - The adjustment of the bond value-added tax may lead to increased allocation of funds to non-financial corporate bonds and other real economy assets[1] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds in the third quarter, focusing on structural monetary policy tools[1] Market Trends and Risks - The export index remains resilient, with port cargo throughput maintaining high levels, although there are concerns about the impact of new tariffs on re-export trade[1] - The report highlights risks including uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[1]

Economic Indicators - As of July 27, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[7] - The ELI index as of July 27, 2025, is -0.81%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating that the "anti-involution" policy has not yet changed the monetary policy stance[11] Industrial Production - The operating rate for major industries remains stable, with the steel mill blast furnace operating rate at 83.48%, unchanged from last week[15] - The inventory of iron ore at ports is recorded at 137.94 million tons, up 12.34 million tons from the previous week[16] Consumption Trends - Weekly average sales of passenger cars reached 58,207 units, an increase of 7,266 units year-on-year, but a decrease of 12% month-on-month[21] - The consumer price index for textiles recorded 105.86 points, down 1.36 percentage points from the previous week[22] Investment Insights - The land supply area in 100 major cities reached 1,387.59 million square meters, up 8.81% week-on-week[25] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 133.91 million square meters, up 3.50% week-on-week[26] Export Performance - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1,592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export prices[34] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports from July 7 to July 13 was 26,676.6 million tons, up 2.43% week-on-week[33] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.72 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[39] - The Brent crude oil futures price is recorded at $68.79 per barrel, down $0.26 from the previous week[39] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 16,563 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan for the week[44] - The 7-day SHIBOR rate increased from 1.4770% to 1.6200% over the week, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions[44] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could impact trade dynamics[48] - The effectiveness of newly implemented policies may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[48]

Economic Indicators - As of July 20, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.13%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[9] - The ELI index is at -0.91%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential acceleration in structural policy tool deployment[12] Investment and Financing - In the first half of 2025, China’s bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%[15] - Net financing from bonds reached 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the increase in social financing scale[15] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds in June 2025 was 2.08%, down 32 basis points from the previous year[15] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending July 13, 2025, was 47,548 units, an increase of 4,218 units year-on-year[22] - Retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-13, 2025, totaled 571,000 units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, but a 5.0% decrease month-on-month[22] Construction and Real Estate - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities decreased by 18.63% week-on-week, totaling 12.75 million square meters[26] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 15.63% week-on-week, amounting to 1.0916 million square meters[26] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables remains at 4.38 yuan/kg[38] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.05/barrel, down $0.74 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,351.70/ounce, up $17.62[38]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.14%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of July is at 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from June[7] - The real estate sales area in 30 major cities has a year-on-year growth rate of -26.5%, worsening from June's -10.6%[7] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry is 64.56% for full steel tires and 72.92% for semi-steel tires, with increases of 0.81 and 2.51 percentage points respectively[15] - The coastal power plants' load rate reached an average of 85.00%, up 2.29 percentage points from the previous week[14] Export and Trade - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The total export amount for South Korea in early July shows a year-on-year growth of 9.50%, up 4.60 percentage points from June[30] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.97%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[10] - The net monetary withdrawal for the week is 2265 billion yuan, with 4257 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted[40] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, and the effectiveness of new policies may fall short of market expectations[47]