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供强需弱下猪肉价格录得18年以来新低
Soochow Securities· 2026-03-29 10:56
Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.05%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, up 0.01 percentage points[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for March is at 50.02%, up 0.02 percentage points from February, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.01 percentage points[11] Production and Investment - Industrial production shows a recovery trend, with the steel mill blast furnace operating rate at 81.05%, up 1.25 percentage points from last week[19] - The real estate market shows signs of improvement, with the transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities increasing by 14.95% to 211.25 million square meters[32] Consumption Trends - Passenger car retail sales for the week ending March 22 recorded an average of 51,196 units, a year-on-year decline of 16% but showing a trend of improvement[26] - The average ticket revenue for the week is 298 million yuan, down from 329 million yuan last week, but up from 285 million yuan a year ago[26] Export Performance - The SCFI index for container shipping rates is at 1,826.77, up 119.82 points from last week, indicating a recovery in export shipping costs[39] - South Korea's export growth rate for the first 20 days of March is at 50.40%, up 6.10 percentage points from February[39] Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is at 15.84 yuan per kilogram, down 0.29 yuan from last week, marking a new low in 18 years[44] - Brent crude oil futures are priced at $112.57 per barrel, up $0.38 from last week, indicating upward pressure on inflation[45]
开门红:工业、地产和出口
Soochow Securities· 2026-03-02 00:20
Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.92%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.88%[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for February is 50.00%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from January, while the demand index increased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.88%[11] Industrial Production - Post-holiday industrial production is better than the same period last year, with the automobile operating rate showing improvement[2] - The steel production rate is at 80.24%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week, and up 1.93 percentage points year-on-year[20] Consumer Trends - Home appliance sales during the Spring Festival period showed a significant decline, with many products experiencing negative year-on-year growth by February 22[2] - The average daily sales of passenger cars fell to 40,953 units, down 23,608 units year-on-year[27] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by approximately 87.4% year-on-year during the first five days post-holiday, totaling 113.1 million square meters[2] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 19 cities reached 110.41 million square meters, up 78.0% year-on-year[2] Export Performance - The export resilience remains strong, with the monitoring ports recording a total cargo throughput of 18,760.60 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 24,558.20 million tons[39] - South Korea's export growth rate for February is 29.00%, down 4.9 percentage points from January but up 28.60% year-on-year[39] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.87 yuan/kg, down 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous week[45] - The spot price of gold increased to 5,222.30 USD/oz, up 169.10 USD/oz from the previous week[45]
宏观量化经济指数周报20260208:预计2026年1月贷款温和增长、社融小幅同比多增-20260208
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-08 15:26
Economic Indicators - As of February 8, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 50.08%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.88%, up 0.02 percentage points[9] - The ECI investment index is at 49.95%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the export index is at 50.26%, up 0.02 percentage points[10] Production and Consumption - Industrial production shows a seasonal decline before the Spring Festival, with the operating rate for automotive tires at 60.70%, down 1.74 percentage points from last week[20] - Passenger car sales averaged 50,171 units per day in mid-January, a decrease of 23,608 units compared to the same period last year[26] Real Estate and Investment - The sales area of new homes in 30 major cities decreased to 139.50 million square meters, down 2.94% from the previous week[34] - The government net financing in January 2026 reached 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 250 billion yuan year-on-year[18] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in January was 33.90%, a significant increase of 20.50 percentage points from December[40] - The monitored port cargo throughput reached 28,159.70 million tons, a 9.27% increase from the previous week[39] Monetary Policy - The expected new RMB loans for January 2026 are between 4.80 to 5.0 trillion yuan, similar to the levels seen in 2024 and 2023[16] - The social financing scale is projected to increase slightly year-on-year, with an expected addition of around 7.10 trillion yuan in January 2026[18]
宏观量化经济指数周报20260201:春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰动-20260201
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-01 11:32
Economic Indicators - As of February 1, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.09%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.86%, up 0.02 percentage points[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for January is 50.02%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from December, while the demand index is 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[13] - The ELI index as of February 1, 2026, is -0.25%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points from last week[16] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires is 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points from last week, while the coke oven production rate is 70.73%, down 0.66 percentage points[22] - The high furnace operating rate is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week, and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year[21] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending January 18, 2026, is 50,171 units, a decrease of 23,608 units year-on-year[28] - The ticket revenue for the week is 1,327.85 million yuan, down 2,739.53 million yuan from last week and down 66,911.91 million yuan year-on-year[29] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities is 143.17 million square meters, up 23.18% from last week, while the second-hand home transaction area is 245.33 million square meters, down 2.35%[34] Export Performance - The SCFI index is 1,316.75, down 141.11 points from last week, while the Baltic Dry Index is 1,989.00, up 248.00 points[40] - The export growth rate for South Korea in the first 20 days of January is 14.90%, an increase of 8.20 percentage points from December and up 20.00% year-on-year[39]
宏观量化宏观指数周报20260111:2025年末新增贷款或季节性冲量-20260111
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-11 13:03
Economic Indicators - As of January 11, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.83%[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.67%, up 0.03 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.17%, down 0.02 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in economic activity[6] Loan and Financing Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, new RMB loans totaled 15.36 trillion, a decrease of 1.74 trillion compared to the same period in 2024[14] - It is expected that December 2025 will see new loans of approximately 1 trillion, consistent with seasonal trends from the past three years[14] - The social financing scale is projected to increase by around 2 trillion in December 2025, down approximately 0.86 trillion year-on-year, with a slight decrease in growth rate to 8.3%[14] Consumption and Investment Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 122,628 units in the last week of December 2025, an increase of 19,277 units year-on-year[24] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 25% week-on-week, but the supply of land increased by 29.62%[31] - The price of ordinary Portland cement was recorded at 281.30 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period[31] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 13.40%, an increase of 5 percentage points from November, indicating a recovery in global demand[36] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports in China decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, reflecting some challenges in export activity[36] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork rose to 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan/kg, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables fell slightly to 5.60 yuan/kg[42] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.55 per barrel, up by $0.18, indicating a slight recovery in global oil prices[42] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[55] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[55]
宏观经济量化指数周报20260104:经济增长实现“开门红”的三条线索-20260104
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-04 13:01
Economic Indicators - As of January 4, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is 49.83%, also down 0.01 percentage points[9] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is 49.93%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from November, and the demand index is 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[10] - The ECI investment index is 49.85%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.64%, down 0.02 percentage points[9] Consumer Behavior - During the New Year holiday from January 1-3, 2026, an estimated 590 million people traveled, averaging 198 million per day, which is lower than the May Day and National Day holidays[2] - The average daily box office revenue during the New Year holiday was 245 million yuan, lower than 306 million yuan in 2025 and 512 million yuan in 2024[2] Investment Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.47% week-on-week, indicating a marginal recovery in the real estate market[33] - The supply of land in 100 major cities decreased by 9.06% week-on-week, totaling 10.28 million square meters[33] Export and Trade - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 6.80%, down 1.30 percentage points from November, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[38] - The Shanghai export container freight index increased by 103.40 points to 1656.32 points, reflecting a recovery in export prices[43] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 4, 2026, is -0.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[15] - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 1,171 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 13,236 billion yuan[50]
宏观量化经济指数周报20251221:政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延续承压-20251221
Soochow Securities· 2025-12-21 14:32
Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is at 49.94%, down 0.02 percentage points from November, and the demand index is at 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[9] - The ECI investment index is at 49.86%, down 0.02 percentage points from November, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, down 0.01 percentage points[9] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars from December 1-14 decreased by 24.0% year-on-year, with a total of 764,000 units sold[24] - Sales of durable goods like refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline of over 30% year-on-year due to policy withdrawal and high base effects[9] - The average wholesale price of pork is recorded at 17.45 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week[42] Investment and Production - The operating rate for oil asphalt plants is at 27.60%, down 0.20 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.70 percentage points year-on-year[30] - The cement dispatch rate is at 31.62%, up 1.53 percentage points week-on-week, but down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year[30] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.65% week-on-week, totaling 230.81 million square meters[34] Export Performance - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous week[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of December is at 17.30%, an increase of 11.10 percentage points from November[36] Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.44%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] - The central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 110 billion yuan for the week[48]
宏观量化经济指数周报20251207:预计11月社融增速延续回落,出口增速由负转正-20251207
Soochow Securities· 2025-12-07 14:32
Economic Indicators - As of December 7, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index remains stable at 49.87%, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, up 0.01 percentage points[9] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, unchanged from last week, indicating stable export performance[9] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.51%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity[12] - New RMB loans in November are expected to be between 450 billion to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion to 130 billion[15] - The total social financing scale in November is projected to be around 2.2 trillion, down from 2.33 trillion year-on-year, with a social financing growth rate expected to drop to 8.4%[15] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for full steel tires is 63.50%, up 0.17 percentage points, while the half steel tire rate is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points[17] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of November were 125,617 units, down 8,925 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for November at 2.263 million units, a 7% decline year-on-year[24] Export Performance - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports reached 28.6271 million tons in the last week of November, an increase of 8.43% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in export activity[35] - The South Korean export growth rate for November is recorded at 8.40%, up 4.80 percentage points from October[40]
宏观量化经济指数周报20251130:国债买卖或重长期效应轻短期规模-20251130
Soochow Securities· 2025-11-30 15:25
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.86%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.96%, down 0.04 percentage points from October, and the demand index is 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.87%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 31.7% year-on-year as of November 29, indicating continued weakness in real estate sales[7] - Passenger car sales averaged 71,131 units per day in the week ending November 23, down 4,871 units year-on-year, with total retail sales of 1.384 million units in November, a decline of 11.0% year-on-year[22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan on November 26 to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to promote consumption growth[7] Group 3: Export and Trade - The new export orders index in the November PMI rose by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting a potential year-on-year increase in export growth[7] - The total export value of South Korea for the first 20 days of November increased by 8.20% year-on-year, showing a recovery compared to October[34] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The ELI index is at -0.61%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a focus on long-term effects of government bond transactions rather than short-term scales[11] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 164.2 billion yuan, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1,511.8 billion yuan[46]
宏观量化经济指数周报20251116:需求延续降温,工业生产超季节性回落-20251116
Soochow Securities· 2025-11-16 15:18
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.97%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from October, and the demand index is at 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points from October, and the consumption index is at 49.69%, down 0.03 percentage points[7] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production is experiencing a seasonal decline, with major industry operating rates decreasing month-on-month[17] - The operating rate for asphalt plants is at 29.00%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 33.42%, down 3.73 percentage points[31] - The construction work volume has shown a seasonal decline since November, indicating a need for further recovery in infrastructure investment[7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales averaged 46,056 units per day in the week of November 9, down 10,644 units year-on-year, with retail sales for the first nine days of November at 415,000 units, a 19.0% decrease year-on-year[25] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg[42] Group 4: Export and Trade - The SCFI index for container shipping is at 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points, while the CCFI index is at 1094.03 points, up 35.86 points[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of November is at 6.40%, a significant recovery from the previous month[36] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The ELI index is at -0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in actual loan rates[12] - The net monetary injection for the week is 626.2 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repos[48]