证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观经济量化指数周报 20260104 经济增长实现"开门红"的三条线索 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 元旦假期数据： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《2026 年财政可能有两个超预期》 2025-12-30 《超万亿美元贸易顺差流向哪里？》 2025-12-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 49.92%，较上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.83%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.85%，较 上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 消费指数为 4 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251221 ◼ 风险提示：美国关税政策仍有不确定性；政策出台力度低于市场预期； 房地产改善的持续性待观察。 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《权益 ETF 系列：临近年底，为春季 躁动做好准备》 2025-12-20 政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延续承压 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 《关键金属成为大国博弈关键优势》 2025-12-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 12 月 21 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为49.95%，较上周回升0.01个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.84%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看， ...

Economic Indicators - As of December 7, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index remains stable at 49.87%, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, up 0.01 percentage points[9] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, unchanged from last week, indicating stable export performance[9] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.51%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity[12] - New RMB loans in November are expected to be between 450 billion to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion to 130 billion[15] - The total social financing scale in November is projected to be around 2.2 trillion, down from 2.33 trillion year-on-year, with a social financing growth rate expected to drop to 8.4%[15] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for full steel tires is 63.50%, up 0.17 percentage points, while the half steel tire rate is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points[17] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of November were 125,617 units, down 8,925 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for November at 2.263 million units, a 7% decline year-on-year[24] Export Performance - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports reached 28.6271 million tons in the last week of November, an increase of 8.43% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in export activity[35] - The South Korean export growth rate for November is recorded at 8.40%, up 4.80 percentage points from October[40]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.86%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.96%, down 0.04 percentage points from October, and the demand index is 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.87%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 31.7% year-on-year as of November 29, indicating continued weakness in real estate sales[7] - Passenger car sales averaged 71,131 units per day in the week ending November 23, down 4,871 units year-on-year, with total retail sales of 1.384 million units in November, a decline of 11.0% year-on-year[22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan on November 26 to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to promote consumption growth[7] Group 3: Export and Trade - The new export orders index in the November PMI rose by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting a potential year-on-year increase in export growth[7] - The total export value of South Korea for the first 20 days of November increased by 8.20% year-on-year, showing a recovery compared to October[34] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The ELI index is at -0.61%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a focus on long-term effects of government bond transactions rather than short-term scales[11] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 164.2 billion yuan, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1,511.8 billion yuan[46]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.97%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from October, and the demand index is at 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points from October, and the consumption index is at 49.69%, down 0.03 percentage points[7] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production is experiencing a seasonal decline, with major industry operating rates decreasing month-on-month[17] - The operating rate for asphalt plants is at 29.00%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 33.42%, down 3.73 percentage points[31] - The construction work volume has shown a seasonal decline since November, indicating a need for further recovery in infrastructure investment[7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales averaged 46,056 units per day in the week of November 9, down 10,644 units year-on-year, with retail sales for the first nine days of November at 415,000 units, a 19.0% decrease year-on-year[25] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg[42] Group 4: Export and Trade - The SCFI index for container shipping is at 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points, while the CCFI index is at 1094.03 points, up 35.86 points[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of November is at 6.40%, a significant recovery from the previous month[36] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The ELI index is at -0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in actual loan rates[12] - The net monetary injection for the week is 626.2 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repos[48]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.98%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.89%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.70%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, up 0.07 percentage points from last week[6] Economic Trends - Economic performance in early November shows a slight weakening in both supply and demand, corroborated by a decline in the October PMI production and new orders indices[7] - Vehicle consumption saw a significant year-on-year increase of 47% during the last week of October, contributing to a positive retail growth rate for passenger vehicles in October[7] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities fell by 47.3% year-on-year as of November 8, indicating a cooling real estate market[7] Inflation and Prices - Pork prices are beginning to recover marginally as the traditional sales season approaches, with a year-on-year decline narrowing[7] - The average wholesale price of pork is recorded at 18.10 CNY/kg, up 0.14 CNY/kg from the previous week[40] Export Risks - October exports showed unexpected declines, with risks of negative year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter due to high base effects and seasonal factors[9] - The ELI index is at -0.57%, indicating a slight decrease, with expectations of lower new loans and social financing in October compared to the previous year[11] Financing and Debt - Government net financing in October was 528.1 billion CNY, down approximately 400 billion CNY year-on-year, leading to a projected social financing scale increase of 0.8-1.0 trillion CNY, lower than last year's 1.41 trillion CNY[14]

Economic Indicators - As of October 12, 2025, the ELI index is -0.64%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential seasonal rebound in new loans for September[2] - The average growth of new loans from September 2022 to September 2024 was 2.12 trillion yuan, while in September 2024, only 1.59 trillion yuan was added, reflecting a policy shift away from scale[2] - The expected new loans for September 2025 are around 1.60 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan[2] Government Financing and Social Financing - In September 2025, government net financing, including national and local government bonds, was 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51 trillion yuan[2] - The expected social financing scale for September 2025 is 3.3 trillion yuan, with a month-end growth rate potentially declining to 8.6%[2] - The government is expected to implement "steady growth" measures in fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter to counteract the decline in social financing growth[2] Supply and Demand Indicators - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous period, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[3] - The industrial production recovery post-holiday is slower than last year, with the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires dropping significantly[20] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of September were 97,631 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4,864 units, but the retail market for passenger cars grew by 6.0% year-on-year in September[28] Investment and Real Estate - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 25.22% week-on-week, indicating pressure on growth due to high base effects[34] - The supply of land in 100 major cities increased by 23.63% week-on-week, suggesting ongoing investment activity despite the real estate market's challenges[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains a significant risk factor for the economy[4] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[4]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.03 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The construction sector shows improvement with a significant increase in infrastructure workload in early September, with a year-on-year improvement in construction activity[6] Market Trends - The ELI index remains stable at -0.69%, indicating rising market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading[11] - Despite seasonal recovery in August financial data, new loan demand remains weak, posing risks to social financing growth and M2 supply[14] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.8% increase in transaction area in major cities compared to a -9.9% decline in August[6] Consumer Behavior - Passenger car retail sales in early September show a decline of 10.0% year-on-year, with average daily sales recorded at 43,483 units[21] - The consumer price index for key monitored vegetables is at 5.11 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase[38] Investment Insights - The operating rate for asphalt plants increased by 6.80 percentage points to 34.90%, indicating a recovery in infrastructure investment[26] - The average price of ordinary Portland cement is recorded at 272.80 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase[27] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in early September is at 3.80%, recovering from a previous decline[32] - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased to 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous week[33] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 196.1 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1.2645 trillion yuan[41] - The 10-year government bond yield increased slightly to 1.8650% from 1.8466% at the beginning of the week[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of real estate market improvements[48]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.90%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.04 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.68%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential decrease in new loans for August[11] - New loans in August are expected to be between 800 billion and 850 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion to 50 billion CNY[15] - Government bond financing in August is projected at 1.33 trillion CNY, down 510 billion CNY year-on-year[15] Real Estate Market - As of September 6, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai aim to ease purchase restrictions, which may stabilize the real estate market[7] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for automotive tires has decreased, with full steel tires at 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points from last week[16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.91 CNY/kg, down 0.05 CNY/kg from last week, while the price of key monitored vegetables is 5.08 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg[40] Export and Shipping - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export shipping costs[34] - South Korea's export growth rate for August is 1.30%, down 4.60 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown in export performance[34]