宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208 预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社融小幅同 比多增 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转》 2026-02-08 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 8 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.08%，较上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.88%， 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.95%，较 上周 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260201 春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰动 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《市场短期进入结构混沌期，但大盘 指数仍然稳健》 2026-02-01 《1 月 FOMC：平安夜——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评》 2026-01-29 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.09%，较上周回升 0.03 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.86%， 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.91%，较 上 ...

Economic Indicators - As of January 11, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.83%[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.67%, up 0.03 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.17%, down 0.02 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in economic activity[6] Loan and Financing Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, new RMB loans totaled 15.36 trillion, a decrease of 1.74 trillion compared to the same period in 2024[14] - It is expected that December 2025 will see new loans of approximately 1 trillion, consistent with seasonal trends from the past three years[14] - The social financing scale is projected to increase by around 2 trillion in December 2025, down approximately 0.86 trillion year-on-year, with a slight decrease in growth rate to 8.3%[14] Consumption and Investment Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 122,628 units in the last week of December 2025, an increase of 19,277 units year-on-year[24] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 25% week-on-week, but the supply of land increased by 29.62%[31] - The price of ordinary Portland cement was recorded at 281.30 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period[31] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 13.40%, an increase of 5 percentage points from November, indicating a recovery in global demand[36] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports in China decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, reflecting some challenges in export activity[36] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork rose to 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan/kg, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables fell slightly to 5.60 yuan/kg[42] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.55 per barrel, up by $0.18, indicating a slight recovery in global oil prices[42] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[55] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[55]

Economic Indicators - As of January 4, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is 49.83%, also down 0.01 percentage points[9] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is 49.93%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from November, and the demand index is 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[10] - The ECI investment index is 49.85%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.64%, down 0.02 percentage points[9] Consumer Behavior - During the New Year holiday from January 1-3, 2026, an estimated 590 million people traveled, averaging 198 million per day, which is lower than the May Day and National Day holidays[2] - The average daily box office revenue during the New Year holiday was 245 million yuan, lower than 306 million yuan in 2025 and 512 million yuan in 2024[2] Investment Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.47% week-on-week, indicating a marginal recovery in the real estate market[33] - The supply of land in 100 major cities decreased by 9.06% week-on-week, totaling 10.28 million square meters[33] Export and Trade - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 6.80%, down 1.30 percentage points from November, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[38] - The Shanghai export container freight index increased by 103.40 points to 1656.32 points, reflecting a recovery in export prices[43] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 4, 2026, is -0.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[15] - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 1,171 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 13,236 billion yuan[50]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is at 49.94%, down 0.02 percentage points from November, and the demand index is at 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[9] - The ECI investment index is at 49.86%, down 0.02 percentage points from November, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, down 0.01 percentage points[9] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars from December 1-14 decreased by 24.0% year-on-year, with a total of 764,000 units sold[24] - Sales of durable goods like refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline of over 30% year-on-year due to policy withdrawal and high base effects[9] - The average wholesale price of pork is recorded at 17.45 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week[42] Investment and Production - The operating rate for oil asphalt plants is at 27.60%, down 0.20 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.70 percentage points year-on-year[30] - The cement dispatch rate is at 31.62%, up 1.53 percentage points week-on-week, but down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year[30] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.65% week-on-week, totaling 230.81 million square meters[34] Export Performance - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous week[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of December is at 17.30%, an increase of 11.10 percentage points from November[36] Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.44%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] - The central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 110 billion yuan for the week[48]

Economic Indicators - As of December 7, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index remains stable at 49.87%, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, up 0.01 percentage points[9] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, unchanged from last week, indicating stable export performance[9] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.51%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity[12] - New RMB loans in November are expected to be between 450 billion to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion to 130 billion[15] - The total social financing scale in November is projected to be around 2.2 trillion, down from 2.33 trillion year-on-year, with a social financing growth rate expected to drop to 8.4%[15] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for full steel tires is 63.50%, up 0.17 percentage points, while the half steel tire rate is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points[17] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of November were 125,617 units, down 8,925 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for November at 2.263 million units, a 7% decline year-on-year[24] Export Performance - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports reached 28.6271 million tons in the last week of November, an increase of 8.43% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in export activity[35] - The South Korean export growth rate for November is recorded at 8.40%, up 4.80 percentage points from October[40]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.86%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.96%, down 0.04 percentage points from October, and the demand index is 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.87%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 31.7% year-on-year as of November 29, indicating continued weakness in real estate sales[7] - Passenger car sales averaged 71,131 units per day in the week ending November 23, down 4,871 units year-on-year, with total retail sales of 1.384 million units in November, a decline of 11.0% year-on-year[22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan on November 26 to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to promote consumption growth[7] Group 3: Export and Trade - The new export orders index in the November PMI rose by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting a potential year-on-year increase in export growth[7] - The total export value of South Korea for the first 20 days of November increased by 8.20% year-on-year, showing a recovery compared to October[34] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The ELI index is at -0.61%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a focus on long-term effects of government bond transactions rather than short-term scales[11] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 164.2 billion yuan, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1,511.8 billion yuan[46]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.97%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from October, and the demand index is at 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points from October, and the consumption index is at 49.69%, down 0.03 percentage points[7] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production is experiencing a seasonal decline, with major industry operating rates decreasing month-on-month[17] - The operating rate for asphalt plants is at 29.00%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 33.42%, down 3.73 percentage points[31] - The construction work volume has shown a seasonal decline since November, indicating a need for further recovery in infrastructure investment[7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales averaged 46,056 units per day in the week of November 9, down 10,644 units year-on-year, with retail sales for the first nine days of November at 415,000 units, a 19.0% decrease year-on-year[25] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg[42] Group 4: Export and Trade - The SCFI index for container shipping is at 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points, while the CCFI index is at 1094.03 points, up 35.86 points[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of November is at 6.40%, a significant recovery from the previous month[36] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The ELI index is at -0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in actual loan rates[12] - The net monetary injection for the week is 626.2 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repos[48]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.98%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.89%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.70%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, up 0.07 percentage points from last week[6] Economic Trends - Economic performance in early November shows a slight weakening in both supply and demand, corroborated by a decline in the October PMI production and new orders indices[7] - Vehicle consumption saw a significant year-on-year increase of 47% during the last week of October, contributing to a positive retail growth rate for passenger vehicles in October[7] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities fell by 47.3% year-on-year as of November 8, indicating a cooling real estate market[7] Inflation and Prices - Pork prices are beginning to recover marginally as the traditional sales season approaches, with a year-on-year decline narrowing[7] - The average wholesale price of pork is recorded at 18.10 CNY/kg, up 0.14 CNY/kg from the previous week[40] Export Risks - October exports showed unexpected declines, with risks of negative year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter due to high base effects and seasonal factors[9] - The ELI index is at -0.57%, indicating a slight decrease, with expectations of lower new loans and social financing in October compared to the previous year[11] Financing and Debt - Government net financing in October was 528.1 billion CNY, down approximately 400 billion CNY year-on-year, leading to a projected social financing scale increase of 0.8-1.0 trillion CNY, lower than last year's 1.41 trillion CNY[14]

Economic Indicators - As of October 12, 2025, the ELI index is -0.64%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential seasonal rebound in new loans for September[2] - The average growth of new loans from September 2022 to September 2024 was 2.12 trillion yuan, while in September 2024, only 1.59 trillion yuan was added, reflecting a policy shift away from scale[2] - The expected new loans for September 2025 are around 1.60 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan[2] Government Financing and Social Financing - In September 2025, government net financing, including national and local government bonds, was 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51 trillion yuan[2] - The expected social financing scale for September 2025 is 3.3 trillion yuan, with a month-end growth rate potentially declining to 8.6%[2] - The government is expected to implement "steady growth" measures in fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter to counteract the decline in social financing growth[2] Supply and Demand Indicators - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous period, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[3] - The industrial production recovery post-holiday is slower than last year, with the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires dropping significantly[20] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of September were 97,631 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4,864 units, but the retail market for passenger cars grew by 6.0% year-on-year in September[28] Investment and Real Estate - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 25.22% week-on-week, indicating pressure on growth due to high base effects[34] - The supply of land in 100 major cities increased by 23.63% week-on-week, suggesting ongoing investment activity despite the real estate market's challenges[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains a significant risk factor for the economy[4] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[4]