货币供应量M2

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镍价再度回落,现货成交一般
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the overall supply of nickel elements is in surplus, with significant upward pressure but cost support at the bottom. It is expected to show a weak oscillatory trend in the near - term range, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the price rebounded due to the impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and tariff adjustments, the overall supply of stainless steel is in surplus, with large upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 126,100 yuan/ton and closed at 123,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 137,729 lots, and the open interest was 63,702 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract showed a downward trend. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. China's social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to April were lower than market expectations, while the M2 money supply growth rate increased by 1 percentage point in April. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased slightly in the morning, but the nickel price fell again during the day. Downstream enterprises mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums of various brands were mostly stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 23,344 tons, and LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons to 199,146 tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,580 lots, and the open interest was 127,690 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract also showed a downward trend. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The shortage of nickel ore supply still exists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at + 26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by 0.65 - 1 US dollars, with the overall price rising slightly. There were no new nickel - iron transactions recently. In the spot market, the stainless - steel price on the futures market fell, the inquiry and trading atmosphere weakened significantly, and the transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium for 304/2B was 305 - 505 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 941.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:出口订单大增,不锈钢价格连续上涨-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:17
市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 出口订单大增 不锈钢价格连续上涨 镍品种 2025-05-15日沪镍主力合约2506开于123230元/吨,收于125230元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%,当日成交量为 136563手,持仓量为63077手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘跳空低开后振荡上涨,日盘开盘后继续振荡上涨,午后走平,收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日 大幅减少,持仓量有所减少。中国1-4月社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元,比上年同期多3.61万亿元,市场预估为16.58 万亿元,1-3月为15.18万亿元。中国1-4月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元,预估为10.47万亿元,1-3月为9.77万亿元。 4月末货币供应量M2同比增长8%,较上月提高1个百分点。现货市场方面,金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上涨约1075 元/吨,市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调,日内镍价再度上幅反弹,下游企业刚需采购为主,精炼镍现货成交整 体有所好转,各品牌现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2150元/吨,进口镍升水变化50元/吨至 200元/吨,镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为2 ...