Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - In July, the social financing scale showed a seasonal decline after the cross - quarter period, with an increment of 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant drop from the previous month. The net financing of government bonds was 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year, strongly supporting the social financing. Credit financing shrank significantly, with a decrease of 426.3 billion yuan in the month and an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not enough to make up for the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - In July, M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high, mainly due to the low - base effect, improvement of enterprise cash flow, and the conversion of deposits to investments. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Although the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - The new RMB loans were unexpectedly - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. On August 13, the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy for personal consumption loans was released to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 7 - Month Social Financing Seasonal Decline - Social financing scale: In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant decline from the previous month. It mainly relied on the net financing of government bonds (1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year). Credit financing decreased by 426.3 billion yuan in the month, an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not sufficient to fill the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - M1 and M2: M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 3.2% (previous value 3.7%), but the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - New RMB loans: The new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. The government released a policy to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17].

Core Insights - The central bank's financial data report for July 2025 indicates a significant increase in monetary supply and social financing, reflecting improved market confidence and economic activity [1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - M1 balance stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, up by 1 percentage point from last month [1] - M0 balance experienced a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first seven months of 2025 was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - In July, the social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's figure by 361.3 billion yuan [1] Loans and Deposits - During the first seven months, new RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan [1] - New RMB deposits rose by 18.44 trillion yuan [1] Efficiency of Fund Circulation - The difference in growth rates between M1 and M2 was 3.2 percentage points, significantly narrowing compared to the peak in September of the previous year, indicating improved fund circulation efficiency [1] - Experts suggest that the narrowing "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 reflects enhanced liquidity and market confidence, aligning with the trend of economic recovery [1]

Report Investment Rating - The zinc industry is rated as "Under Pressure" [1] Core View - Zinc is expected to run under pressure [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 136,140 lots, an increase of 6,783 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 11,463 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 94,177 lots, a decrease of 13,455 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 194,167 lots, an increase of 1,614 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was -0.36 dollars/ton, down 5.04 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 9,171 tons, an increase of 298 tons; LME zinc inventory was 113,400 tons, an increase of 8,150 tons [1] - **Related Products Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,355 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] News - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [2] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2]

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - The net financing of corporate bonds exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the average yield of AAA-rated corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to the corporate sector, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the financial sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 620 billion, which is lower than market expectations of approximately 800 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion [1][2]. - Social financing (社融) in May 2025 increased by 2.29 trillion, surpassing market expectations of about 2.05 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [1][2]. - M1 growth rate rebounded to 2.3% in May, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 7.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [1][4][6]. - Total deposits in May 2025 increased by 2.18 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion, mainly from corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In May 2025, new RMB loans totaled 620 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, primarily due to a decline in corporate medium to long-term loans [1][2]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,100 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2,300 billion [2]. Social Financing - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, mainly from government bonds and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Government bond issuance was 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was recorded at 2.3%, while M2 growth rate stood at 7.9%, indicating stable trends in monetary aggregates [1][4][6]. - The report anticipates that the growth rates of monetary aggregates and social financing will stabilize and potentially rebound in the third quarter of 2025 due to low base effects [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in May 2025 were 2.18 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5,000 billion, driven by corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals of aluminum and alumina, providing updated data on futures and spot markets as well as relevant economic news and trend strength indicators [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of aluminum remains strong, while the focus of alumina has shifted slightly downward [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,440 yuan, up 370 yuan from a week ago and down 425 yuan from three months ago - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,503 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous trading day - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased compared to previous periods [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,852 yuan, down 43 yuan from the previous trading day - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract also showed significant changes compared to previous periods [1] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 463,000 tons, showing a decreasing trend - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 353,200 tons, also decreasing [1] 3.2.2 Alumina - The domestic average price of alumina was 3,287 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous trading day - The import prices of alumina from different regions also had certain fluctuations [1] 3.3 Other Information - China's social financing increment in May was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan - The scissors - gap between M2 and M1 narrowed - The trend strength of aluminum and alumina was both 0, indicating a neutral state [1][3]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Credit Conditions - In May, the broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month [3] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year, while the social financing scale increased by 22.894 billion yuan, up by 2.271 billion yuan year-on-year [2][10] Group 2: Economic Activity and Investment - The increase in M1 indicates a significant acceleration in "active money," suggesting a recovery in investment and consumption activities [3][5] - The government bond issuance has accelerated, which is the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing scale [11] - The total social financing scale at the end of May was 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [10] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Sector Performance - Corporate loans increased by 530 billion yuan in May, but this was a decrease of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued impact from local government debt replacement [7][9] - Retail loans showed signs of improvement, although overall demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan in residential loans [9] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 1.6 trillion yuan issued this year to support debt replacement [7][11]

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - Corporate bond net financing exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a downward trend in financing costs, as the average yield on 5-year AAA corporate bonds fell to 1.97% [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to enterprises, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Group 1 - The total social financing scale increment in China from January to May is 18.63 trillion RMB, an increase from the previous value of 16.34 trillion RMB [1] - The new RMB loans added in China from January to May amount to 10.68 trillion RMB, up from the previous value of 10.06 trillion RMB [1]

Group 1 - The total new RMB loans in China from January to May reached 10.68 trillion yuan, which is lower than the estimated 10.9597 trillion yuan [1] - The new loans for the first four months were reported at 10.0597 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in lending activity in May compared to the previous months [1]