Economic Overview - In early November, the first batch of Q4 fundamental data showed inflation recovery but other indicators like credit, fixed asset investment, and real estate sales were below expectations, highlighting a "weak reality" challenge[1] - The central bank has signaled a cautious "loose monetary" stance, indicating that the marginal effectiveness of further easing has declined significantly[1] Monetary Policy Adaptation - From 2022 to 2025, the central bank's approach has shifted from "preemptive" to "reactive," with rate cuts occurring after risk confirmation rather than before[2] - Current economic conditions suggest that industrial value-added and service production indices need to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year in November-December to offset October's slowdown and meet the annual growth target of 5%[2] Bond Market Strategy - In the short term, the bond market is expected to focus on spread opportunities until a clear direction in interest rates emerges, prioritizing the relative value between different bond types[3] - The expectation for "loose monetary" policy to continue is still present, with potential rate cuts anticipated at the end of the year or early next year[3] Financial Product Trends - The scale of financial products saw a slight decrease of 307 billion yuan, bringing the total to 33.36 trillion yuan, reflecting typical seasonal fluctuations[29] - The proportion of negative returns in financial products has decreased, with the overall negative return rate dropping to 1.77% for the past week[36] Leverage and Risk Indicators - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market has decreased from 107.53% to 107.08%, indicating a tightening of leverage conditions[55] - The average leverage level for non-bank institutions also fell from 113.22% to 112.18%, suggesting a broader trend of deleveraging[55]