2026 年 02 月 26 日 开源晨会 0226 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.155 | | 银行 | -0.456 | | 汽车 | 0.056 | | 家用电器 | 0.130 | | 石油石化 | 0.190 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 4.694 | | 有色金属 | 3.478 | | 建筑材料 | 2.749 | | 房地产 | 2.533 | | 基础化工 | 2.162 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【固定收益】上清所托管量环比减少，债市整体杠杆率持平——2026 年 1 月债市 托管数据点评-20260225 事件：1 月末，上清所债 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-25 市场面：（7）收盘价：2026-02-24，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.45元、106.18元、108.50元、112.96元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.02%、0.07%、0.02%和 0.20%。（8）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为0.019 元、0.026元、0.011元和0.102元。 综合来看：受股市行情带动，政治局会议释放宽货币信号，同时全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定 性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 债市开门红，期债收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial market index showed a positive start in January 2026, increasing from 133.0 to 136.4 year-on-year, and from 134.7 to 136.4 month-on-month, driven by multiple positive signals including loose monetary policy, debt reduction efforts, and the attractiveness of RMB assets amid geopolitical tensions [1][15]. Group 1: Stock Market - The stock market financial index rose from 22.7 to 25.3 from January 2025 to January 2026, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 2% month-on-month increase, driven by domestic funds, policy support, and the safe-haven appeal of RMB assets [4][19]. - The asset management industry, with a scale of nearly 185 trillion, and the return of cross-border ETFs contributed to the influx of capital into the stock market [19]. - The strong performance of the RMB against the USD, nearing 6.9, and a 4% risk premium in the Chinese stock market enhanced the attractiveness of RMB assets, leading to continued foreign capital inflow [5][19]. Group 2: Macro-Leverage Financial Market - The macro-leverage financial market index increased from 19.6 to 25.9, a 32% year-on-year rise and a 2% month-on-month increase, driven by policy-driven investment expansion and passive leverage increase due to insufficient demand [6][20]. - The macro leverage ratio reached 302.4% by the end of 2025, with a passive increase of 11.7 percentage points throughout the year [20]. Group 3: Banking and Credit Financial Market - The banking and credit financial market index rose from 18.3 to 20.4, an 11% year-on-year increase, but a slight 1% month-on-month decrease, reflecting stable policy support amid weak real demand [7][21]. - The growth in bank wealth management scale by 11.15% and the optimization of assets through debt reduction in key provinces supported credit expansion [21]. Group 4: Currency and Interbank Market - The currency and interbank market financial index surged from 22.7 to 28.3, a 25% year-on-year increase and an 8% month-on-month increase, due to loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity [9][23]. - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US, along with a weak CPI/PPI, provided ample space for the central bank to maintain a loose policy [23]. Group 5: Non-Traditional Banking Market - The non-traditional banking financial market index rose from 17.2 to 21.8, a 26% year-on-year increase and a 2.3% month-on-month increase, driven by industry clearing and asset management expansion [10][24]. - The exit of over 700 institutions from the market improved the industry ecosystem, while the asset management sector experienced explosive growth across various funds [24]. Group 6: Bond Market - The bond market financial index fell significantly from 32.4 to 14.8, a 54% year-on-year decline and an 11% month-on-month decline, due to supply-demand imbalances and credit risks [11][24]. - The expectation of increased issuance of long-term special government bonds and local special bonds during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period contributed to the supply pressure reflected in the market [12][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend supported by liquidity easing, with expectations for continued strength leading up to the Chinese New Year holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bond futures across various maturities have shown gains, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment as institutional buying increases [1]. - The 10-year bond yield reached 1.8%, while the 7-year yield fell to a new low, indicating a bullish trend in the bond market [1]. - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of further upward movement in bond prices as the Chinese New Year approaches [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the first quarter may present a favorable window for bond market positioning, with potential for stronger rebounds in certain bond categories [2]. - Post-holiday, the market will need to monitor macroeconomic changes and risk asset performance, which could influence bond market dynamics [2][4]. - Key factors to watch include global liquidity trends, local government meetings, and upcoming economic data releases that may impact market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to consider strategies such as long positions in specific bond contracts and to be cautious about chasing high prices due to prevailing market emotions [2][3]. - The current high net basis in the bond market suggests that traders should focus on specific contracts for potential gains as the market stabilizes [3]. - As the main contracts transition to the 2606 series, traders must decide on their positions to avoid potential costs associated with delivery or forced liquidation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in the process of repair, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The macro - policy in 2026 will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is room for further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2025 did not meet expectations, but the fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with increased spending and a pre - emptive rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.90% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and an increase rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.85, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 and a decline rate of 0.85%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9148, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.014 and a decline rate of 0.20%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.51, with a month - on - month increase of 0.07 and a growth rate of 4.88%; etc. [11] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On February 9, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 112.73 yuan respectively, with price increases of 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.06%, and 0.14% [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is 0.003 yuan, 0.003 yuan, 0.010 yuan, and 0.013 yuan respectively [3] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 113 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% on February 9, 2026 [2] - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.270%, 1.505%, 1.584%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 3.4 Spread Overview - Various spread indicators such as the inter - period spread of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads are presented in the form of figures, including (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), etc [37][34] 3.5 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield to maturity of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [41][43] 3.6 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield to maturity of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [45][54] 3.7 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield and Treasury bond yield to maturity of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55] 3.8 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield and Treasury bond yield to maturity of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [59][64] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of Treasury bond futures oscillates [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% for the first time since November 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more favorable outlook for bonds amid expectations of continued monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the 10-year government bond yield reached 1.793%, marking a significant decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2]. - The bond futures market saw an overall increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.14% to 112.730, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 108.490 [2]. - The yield on the "25附息国债16" bond fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.8%, while the yield on the "25超长特别国债06" bond rose by 0.2 basis points to 2.2275% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent bond market recovery is attributed to weak fundamentals and a supportive liquidity environment, with increased volatility in equity and commodity markets providing a safe haven for investors [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in January dropped to 49.3%, raising expectations for additional policy measures [3]. - Major state-owned banks have been net buyers of 10-year government bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of 993 billion yuan as of February 6, indicating strong institutional support for the bond market [3][4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts suggest that the market is currently betting on potential interest rate cuts post-Spring Festival, with the upcoming inflation data being a key focus [6][8]. - The 7-day reverse repo rate is seen as a critical factor influencing the downward trend of the 10-year government bond yield, with recent rates dropping to 1.4% [6][7]. - There is an expectation of policy rate cuts in the next 2-3 months as internal and external constraints on monetary easing have eased [7][8].

Core Insights - The bond market has shown a narrow fluctuation trend, indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment among investors, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the near term [1][2] - The correlation between the domestic equity market and commodity prices, particularly silver, has intensified, with silver price movements acting as a barometer for equity market trends [10][12] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday may reduce investors' willingness to hold positions, leading to a more defensive investment strategy [16] Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield has remained stable within a narrow range of 1.80% to 1.90%, reflecting a lack of strong trading direction and investor sentiment [2][21] - Recent monetary policy actions, such as the central bank's net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, have increased liquidity but have not significantly boosted bond market performance [23][27] - The bond market is expected to remain cautious, with potential for further movement contingent on substantial positive developments in monetary policy or market conditions [27] Group 2: Equity and Commodity Market Dynamics - The domestic equity market has shown a strong correlation with silver prices, with significant price drops in silver leading to declines in the equity market [10][12] - The silver market has experienced substantial gains, with a peak price of $115.87 per ounce on January 29, representing a 105.45% increase since late November 2025, indicating a buildup of bullish sentiment [12][16] - The volatility in silver prices during the holiday period may amplify uncertainties for investors, impacting their trading decisions [16] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment appears to be cautious, with a tendency to avoid aggressive positions ahead of the holiday, suggesting a preference for flexibility and defensive strategies [16] - The interplay between equity and commodity markets reflects broader market sentiment, with fluctuations in silver prices directly influencing equity market movements [10][12] - The overall market environment remains uncertain, with investors likely to adopt a "watch and wait" approach until clearer signals emerge [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continued. Global trade uncertainty increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.96, with a day - on - day increase of 0.31 (+0.32%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9390, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.004 (-0.06%); SHIBOR 7 days was 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.61%); DR007 was 1.48, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.64%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.00%) [11] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The content mainly includes figures about the closing price trend, price change, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [13][14][16] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The content includes figures about the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [24][25][27] 4. Spread Overview - The content includes figures about the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.), but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [32][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [43][45] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [47][55] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [54] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [59][64] 9. Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Policy**: On December 8, the Political Bureau meeting proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, sending a signal of loose money. The Central Economic Working Conference proposed that in 2026, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and flexibly and efficiently use reserve - requirement ratio cuts, interest - rate cuts, and structural policy tools. Starting from January 19, 2026, the interest rates of a basket of re - loans and rediscounts were lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and there was still room for further reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [1] - **Inflation**: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [1] - **Finance**: In 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure did not meet expectations. Revenue was dragged down by the weakening of tax revenue and the high base of non - tax revenue, and the annual general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The expenditure rhythm was advanced, the year - end intensity weakened, and the annual completion rate was low. In terms of structure, people's livelihood expenditures were generally stable, the proportion of infrastructure expenditures decreased, and land fiscal revenue continued to be weak. In 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, emphasizing "increased total amount, better structure", and the expenditure intensity is expected to increase, with the rhythm continuing to be advanced to support stable growth [2] - **Finance (Social Financing and Credit)**: In the first 12 months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. At the end of December, the balance of RMB loans increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the balance of deposits increased by 8.7% year - on - year. In terms of credit, there was an obvious divergence between residents' and enterprises' financing. The decrease in residents' loans reflected the weak endogenous demand, while enterprises' loans increased year - on - year, indicating that the effects of policy support were gradually emerging [2] - **Central Bank**: On February 5, 2026, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 118.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity bidding [2] - **Money Market**: The repurchase interest rates for the main terms of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.319%, 1.464%, 1.614%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2] - **Market**: On February 5, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.32 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, and the price changes were 0.04%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.38% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.022 yuan, - 0.051 yuan, 0.021 yuan, and 0.077 yuan respectively [3] 10. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures oscillated [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of 2603 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally with supply - demand converging and enterprise - scale differentiation intensifying, while price indices rose. The service industry PMI slightly dropped and the construction industry's prosperity significantly declined, thus more efforts are needed to promote economic - stabilizing policies [1][10][34]. - In January, the shock of sentiment was gradually digested, and the bond market recovered after adjustment. However, there were still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range in February. Two structural investment opportunities are recommended: the allocation opportunities of 5Y government - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds, and the spread - compression opportunities such as 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds [4][34][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - month PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3% in January, returning to the contraction range and being weaker than the seasonal average. The production index expansion slowed, demand was under pressure, price indices rose, and enterprises replenished inventory passively with a decline in purchasing willingness [10]. - In the non - manufacturing sector, the service industry PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the construction industry's business activity index dropped by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, both showing different degrees of deviation from seasonal performance [11][14]. 3.2 Manufacturing: Demand - side Operation Under Pressure, Both Price Indices Rising - **Production**: The manufacturing PMI production index was 50.6% in January, down 1.1 percentage points month - on - month, weaker than the seasonal level. The slowdown was due to factors like cold weather and approaching Spring Festival, especially the over 4 - percentage - point decline in the consumer goods manufacturing production index [17]. - **Demand**: The new order index and new export order index of manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. The "new order - new export order" index dropped to 1.4%. Seasonal factors and external policy changes affected demand, but the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased [19]. - **Enterprise Scale and New Kinetic Energy**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises decreased by 0.5, 1.1, and 1.2 percentage points respectively. New kinetic energy industries continued to lead, while traditional industries' prosperity declined [20]. - **Price**: Affected by multiple factors, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points month - on - month. The index difference reached 5.5 percentage points, compressing the profit space of mid - and downstream enterprises [23]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory index decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the finished - product inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points. The economic kinetic energy index decreased by 2.0 percentage points, and the purchasing volume index dropped to 48.7%. The start of the replenishment cycle depends on the recovery of market demand [24]. 3.3 Non - manufacturing: Slight Decline in Service Industry PMI, Significant Decline in Construction Industry - **Service Industry**: In January, the service industry PMI slightly declined. The strong support from the financial industry, the stable development of new kinetic energy, and the good performance of some consumption - related service industries maintained its stability. However, the real - estate industry's business activity index fell below 40.0%, and Spring Festival consumption may boost the consumption - related service industries [29]. - **Construction Industry**: Due to cold weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the construction industry's business activity index decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8% in January. Both housing construction and civil engineering construction activities slowed down, and the off - season characteristics may continue in February [32]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - In January, after the shock of sentiment was digested, the bond market recovered. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped to the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. With insufficient broad - money expectations and increased local - bond supply in February, the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range. Two parts of structural investment opportunities are recommended [4][34][35].