Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the short-term impact of rising inflation expectations on the domestic bond market is relatively controllable, with a friendly macro environment for the bond market. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to have strong support above 1.85% and may attempt to move down towards the 1.70% level [1][9] Group 2 - The rising inflation expectations due to the escalating US-Iran conflict have led to a global increase in inflation expectations, causing adjustments in US and Japanese bonds. However, the impact on the domestic bond market is expected to be limited [2][16] - There is a significant difference in the inflation environment between domestic and international markets, with the domestic market having already partially priced in the inflation expectations. The moderate rise in inflation is not expected to hinder the easing monetary policy [3][18] - The uncertainty surrounding whether international oil prices can maintain high levels remains significant, and the transmission to domestic prices may experience a time lag [4][22] - Even if oil prices remain high, their impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be limited due to the relatively low weight of energy prices in the CPI [5][23] Group 3 - The macro environment is relatively friendly to the current bond market, with signs indicating that financial market investors are not fully prepared for the long-term evolution of the US-Iran conflict. The current market narrative is more focused on inflation rather than risk aversion [6][26] - The central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity has created a relatively abundant funding environment, which supports the bond market and prevents further declines [7][31] Group 4 - A comparison of the bond market in the first half of 2025 with the current stock market shows that there is a strong bullish expectation for bond yields to decline further, while the stock market is expected to experience a slow bull trend [8][33] - The bond market is expected to remain optimistic, with strong support for the 10-year government bond yield above 1.85%, and a potential attempt to move down towards 1.70% [9][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth target in the government work report is adjusted downward. The overall fiscal and monetary policy intensity meets market expectations, having a neutral impact on the bond market. The Mideast conflict between the US and Iran intensifies, increasing market risk aversion, and the rising oil price further suppresses the Fed's monetary easing expectations. The bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend [11][13]. - In the medium to long term, with the uncertainty of tariff disturbances and external demand increasing, there is still pressure on the economy to stabilize growth. The direction of the loose - monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital - intensive industries are difficult to change. The bond market should mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, slightly higher than the previous value. The decline in manufacturing prosperity in February is mainly due to the Spring Festival factor. The new export order index dropped significantly, and the new order index fell 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%, indicating weak domestic demand recovery. The government work report set the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with other targets such as the urban surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5% and new urban employment of over 12 million people [11][12]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, with 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.4474 trillion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.78%, down 3.92 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was 2.28%, down 1.15 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.13%, up 16.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose - monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the trading volume and open interest of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][24][26][32][37]. 3.3 Main Economic Data 3.3.1 Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%. In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [42]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In February, the production index in manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 49.6%, and the new order index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%, indicating a weakening of both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry [48]. - **Price Index**: In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year (previous value 0.8%); core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 1.2%); PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year (previous value - 1.9%). The month - on - month CPI was 0.2% and the core CPI was 0.3%, while the PPI was 0.4% [51]. - **Export Data**: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year (previous value 5.9%), and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year (previous value 1.9%). Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 11.15% year - on - year [54]. - **Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2% (previous value 4.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [57]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8% (previous value - 2.6%); real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year (previous value - 15.9%); infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year (previous value - 1.1%); manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year - on - year (previous value 1.9%). In December, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7% (previous value - 0.7%), and the year - on - year price was - 6.1% (previous value - 5.7%) [61]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In December, the cumulative value of newly started housing area was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% (previous value - 20.5%); the cumulative value of newly constructed housing area was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0% (previous value - 9.6%). The cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end decreased by 18.16% (previous value - 18.06%). The new home sales data in 30 large and medium - sized cities have recovered recently, but the sustainability of the real estate improvement remains to be observed [64][67]. 3.3.2 Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In Q4, the annualized current - price GDP of the US was $3.149 trillion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.23% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 1.40%. In January, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year (previous value 2.7%), and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year (previous value 2.6%), with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% (previous value 0.0%). In December, the order amount of durable goods was $319.6 billion, a year - on - year increase of 10.00% (previous value 12.45%). In January, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 people (expected 70,000), and the unemployment rate was 4.3% (expected 4.4%, previous value 4.4%). In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4 (previous value 52.6), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1 (previous value 53.8) [70][73][76]. - **European Economy**: In Q4, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In January, the euro - area CPI increased by 1.7% year - on - year (expected 1.7%, previous value 1.9%), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.2%). In February, the euro - area manufacturing PMI was 50.8 (previous value 49.5), and the service industry PMI was 51.9 (previous value 51.6) [76][79]. 3.4 Liquidity - In January, the M1 growth rate was 4.9% (previous value 3.8%), and the M2 growth rate was 9.0% (previous value 8.5%). The increase in the M1 growth rate was mainly due to the base effect and the high growth of corporate and government deposits. The new social financing in January was 7.22 trillion yuan (7.05 trillion yuan in the same period last year), and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [84]. - In the sub - items of social financing in January, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds increased, and the financing of the real - economy sector was stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and corporate sectors was 5.9% (previous value 6.1%), and the government bond growth rate was 17.3% (previous value 17.1%) [87]. - The MLF balance in February was 725 billion yuan, with a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, with 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.4474 trillion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [90]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The report shows the changes in various interest rates, including repurchase rates (R001, R007, DR001, DR007), Treasury bond yields (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, 30 - year), and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield [93]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the trends of the USD/CNH exchange rate and the US dollar index [103].

Group 1 - The bond market in March is influenced by four key factors: the performance of economic growth post-Spring Festival, the fiscal deficit rate and government bond supply arrangements discussed during the Two Sessions, the possibility of interest rate cuts by the central bank around March, and the impact of equity and bond market dynamics [4][34][35] - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 1.8%, leading to a cautious market sentiment characterized by profit-taking and fear of high prices, resulting in a shift in bond market trends post-Spring Festival [4][36] - The basic economic indicators post-Spring Festival show structural highlights, with no significant recovery but also no further deterioration, which may impose certain constraints on the bond market [4][38] Group 2 - The fiscal stimulus is expected to be a significant support for economic growth in the first half of the year, with the issuance of ordinary government bonds likely to continue at a pace similar to last year, and the issuance of special bonds in January-February exceeding the same period last year [4][39][40] - The bond market is facing increasing headwinds, with expectations of a weak and volatile pattern due to the ample liquidity and the likelihood of accelerated government bond issuance in March, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances [4][35][36] - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in yield spreads and credit spreads, with moderate leverage on mid-term varieties and perpetual bonds [4][36]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and there were uncertainties in foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the monthly PPI rose 0.40% month - on - month and decreased 1.40% year - on - year [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan (+1.58%); M2 year - on - year growth was 9.00%, up 0.50% (+5.88%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.30% (-0.61%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US Dollar Index was 98.80, down 0.26 (-0.26%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8934, down 0.032 (-0.47%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.28%); DR007 was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.25%); R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 (-6.95%); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.53, down 0.01 (-0.49%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09 [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the settled funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, and the long - short position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety [13][14][16]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report shows charts such as the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [26][27][24]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - product spreads of futures [33][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [45][47]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][56]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][66]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, the Politburo meeting's signal of loose monetary policy, unchanged LPR, continued expectations of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. - The repurchase rate has declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2606 basis. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [10]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [11]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51 and a growth rate of 0.52%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.9164, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026 and a growth rate of 0.38%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.23%. DR007 is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 0.96%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.96% [12]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change situation of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures [14][15][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local bonds [25][26][24]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][32][34]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [41][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [45][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [53][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [59][60].

Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the bond custody amount at the Shanghai Clearing House, with a total of 49.71 trillion yuan at the end of January, down from 49.88 trillion yuan, reflecting a net decrease of 176.29 billion yuan [5][7][8] - The total bond custody amount at both the Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased to 179.31 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 757.62 billion yuan [7][8] - The report indicates that the overall leverage ratio in the bond market remained stable at 107.14% in January, with commercial banks being the main contributors to bond purchases [11][12] Total Research - The Shanghai Clearing House's bond custody amount decreased by 176.29 billion yuan, while CCDC's increased by 933.91 billion yuan, leading to a combined net increase of 757.62 billion yuan [7][8] - The main contributors to the net increase in bond custody were interest rate bonds, which saw a significant rise, while interbank certificates of deposit experienced a notable decrease [9] - Commercial banks were identified as the primary buyers of bonds, with a net increase of 10.22 trillion yuan in bond custody, while other financial institutions showed negative net increases [10] Market Outlook - The report suggests a target range for the 10-year government bond yield of 2-3%, with a central tendency around 2.5% [12][13] - Economic recovery is not meeting expectations, and there may be a shift towards looser monetary and fiscal policies in early 2026, which could accelerate the economic cycle [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), to gauge potential tightening of monetary policy [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market started the year well with futures contracts rising. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, and increased global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose policy expectations, and short - term focus should be on end - of - month policy signals [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) rose 0.40% month - on - month and fell 1.40% year - on - year [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale reached 449.11 trillion yuan, with a 6.99 - trillion - yuan increase and a 1.58% growth rate; M2 year - on - year was 9.00%, up 0.50% and 5.88% respectively; Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.80% and 1.60% respectively [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.89, up 0.15 and 0.15%; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8782, down 0.014 and 0.20%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.55, up 0.23 and 17.36%; DR007 was 1.55, up 0.23 and 17.67%; R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 and 6.95%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.56, with no change in value and a 0.15% decrease; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with no change in value and a 0.15% decrease [11] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report includes figures on the closing price trends of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price changes of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of positions in various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of net positions (top 20) in various treasury bond futures varieties, and the long - short position ratio (top 20) in various treasury bond futures varieties, but specific data is not detailed here, only the sources are mentioned as Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][14][20] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report includes figures on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][25] IV. Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [40][42] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][53] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [57][60] Strategies - Unilateral: Repurchase rates have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline in the basis of the 2603 contract [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market index showed a positive start in January 2026, increasing from 133.0 to 136.4 year-on-year, and from 134.7 to 136.4 month-on-month, driven by multiple positive signals including loose monetary policy, debt reduction efforts, and the attractiveness of RMB assets amid geopolitical tensions [1][15]. Group 1: Stock Market - The stock market financial index rose from 22.7 to 25.3 from January 2025 to January 2026, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 2% month-on-month increase, driven by domestic funds, policy support, and the safe-haven appeal of RMB assets [4][19]. - The asset management industry, with a scale of nearly 185 trillion, and the return of cross-border ETFs contributed to the influx of capital into the stock market [19]. - The strong performance of the RMB against the USD, nearing 6.9, and a 4% risk premium in the Chinese stock market enhanced the attractiveness of RMB assets, leading to continued foreign capital inflow [5][19]. Group 2: Macro-Leverage Financial Market - The macro-leverage financial market index increased from 19.6 to 25.9, a 32% year-on-year rise and a 2% month-on-month increase, driven by policy-driven investment expansion and passive leverage increase due to insufficient demand [6][20]. - The macro leverage ratio reached 302.4% by the end of 2025, with a passive increase of 11.7 percentage points throughout the year [20]. Group 3: Banking and Credit Financial Market - The banking and credit financial market index rose from 18.3 to 20.4, an 11% year-on-year increase, but a slight 1% month-on-month decrease, reflecting stable policy support amid weak real demand [7][21]. - The growth in bank wealth management scale by 11.15% and the optimization of assets through debt reduction in key provinces supported credit expansion [21]. Group 4: Currency and Interbank Market - The currency and interbank market financial index surged from 22.7 to 28.3, a 25% year-on-year increase and an 8% month-on-month increase, due to loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity [9][23]. - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US, along with a weak CPI/PPI, provided ample space for the central bank to maintain a loose policy [23]. Group 5: Non-Traditional Banking Market - The non-traditional banking financial market index rose from 17.2 to 21.8, a 26% year-on-year increase and a 2.3% month-on-month increase, driven by industry clearing and asset management expansion [10][24]. - The exit of over 700 institutions from the market improved the industry ecosystem, while the asset management sector experienced explosive growth across various funds [24]. Group 6: Bond Market - The bond market financial index fell significantly from 32.4 to 14.8, a 54% year-on-year decline and an 11% month-on-month decline, due to supply-demand imbalances and credit risks [11][24]. - The expectation of increased issuance of long-term special government bonds and local special bonds during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period contributed to the supply pressure reflected in the market [12][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend supported by liquidity easing, with expectations for continued strength leading up to the Chinese New Year holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bond futures across various maturities have shown gains, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment as institutional buying increases [1]. - The 10-year bond yield reached 1.8%, while the 7-year yield fell to a new low, indicating a bullish trend in the bond market [1]. - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of further upward movement in bond prices as the Chinese New Year approaches [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the first quarter may present a favorable window for bond market positioning, with potential for stronger rebounds in certain bond categories [2]. - Post-holiday, the market will need to monitor macroeconomic changes and risk asset performance, which could influence bond market dynamics [2][4]. - Key factors to watch include global liquidity trends, local government meetings, and upcoming economic data releases that may impact market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to consider strategies such as long positions in specific bond contracts and to be cautious about chasing high prices due to prevailing market emotions [2][3]. - The current high net basis in the bond market suggests that traders should focus on specific contracts for potential gains as the market stabilizes [3]. - As the main contracts transition to the 2606 series, traders must decide on their positions to avoid potential costs associated with delivery or forced liquidation [3].