王青认为，着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度经济运行，稳增长政策有望进入发力阶段，货币政 策在适度宽松方向上仍有充足空间。温彬表示，考虑到当前经济回升向好的基础仍需加力巩固以及《中 共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》释放的"实施更加积极的宏观政策"信 号，更大力度的货币政策宽松仍有空间。 （责任编辑：蔡情） 自2019年8月中国人民银行改革完善LPR报价形成机制后，如今LPR已经成为金融机构贷款利率定 价的参考基准，直接影响企业融资和居民信贷成本。今年以来，人民银行深化利率市场化改革，持续释 放LPR改革效能，促进贷款利率稳中有降。最新数据显示，当前贷款利率保持在低位水平，10月份企业 新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外 币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约8个基点。 对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，近期发布的《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》明确，人 民银行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆 周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变 ...

固收研究报告 关注机构季节性配置会否开启 —— 固收周报（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日） 2025 证 11 证 22 证 ⚫ 本周债市回顾： 利率震荡回 升，收益率曲线走陡 本周（ 11/17 -11/21 ）债市收益率整体上行，主要受股债跷跷板、地缘影响与地产贴息 预期等影响 , 截至 11/21 ，30Y、10Y 、1Y 国债收益率分别变化 +1.85BP 、+0.57BP 、 -0.56BP 收于 2.16% 、1.82% 、1.40% ，30Y-10Y 、10Y -1Y 期限利差分别较上周变 化+0.69BP 、+1.22BP 收于 34.1BP 、41.6BP 。证证 10Y 证证证证证证证证证证证证 1证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2证证证证证证证证证证证证 证 ⚫ 下周 债市展望： 临近月末关注资金面跨月情况 基本面来看， 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证 后续关注 四方面变化： 1 ）经济数据显示供需收缩，后续 P ...

招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，未来一段时间，预计央行将通过逆回购、 买断式逆回购等工具，加强对中短期市场流动性的调节；通过中期借贷便利（MLF）操作等措施，继 续释放中长期流动性，优化流动性期限结构，进一步满足政府债券发行、信贷投放增加等对市场流动性 的需求，保持金融市场流动性充裕，更好地引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持 服务。 财信金控首席经济学家、财信研究院副院长伍超明则认为，四季度降息和调降LPR概率较小。 央行数据显示，10月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个 人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约8个基点。 央行发布的三季度货币政策执行报告提到，实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。 根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主 要央行货币政策变化，持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测。综合运用多种货币 政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示表示，接下来稳楼市政策需要进一步加力。预计四 ...

记者 辛圆 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%。两个期限 LPR均与上月持平，连续第6个月维持不变。 LPR今年唯一一次调整是在5月，1年期和5年期以上LPR均下调10个基点。贷款利率则保持在历史低位水平。 央行数据显示，10月企业新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上 年同期低约8个基点。 伍超明对智通财经表示，从经济基本面看，预计在新型政策性金融工具、5000亿结存限额等增量财政政策加快落地生效，以及"十五五"重大项目可能前置的 共同支撑下，全年GDP完成5%的增长目标压力可控；加上物价稳步温和回升，短期内货币政策大幅加力的必要性较小。 央行发布的三季度货币政策执行报告提到，实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调 节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化，持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测。综合运用多种货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investors should not fear buying at low yields, but rather be cautious when significant positive news leads to a surge in both volume and price [1]. Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing around 1.80%, with slight fluctuations observed [3][5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan matured [3]. - The market is transitioning to a balanced liquidity state as the tax period ends, leading to a decline in funding rates, with DR001 around 1.42% and DR007 around 1.51% [3][5]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market shows a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.805% and fluctuating to 1.807% [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable despite overnight declines in overseas risk assets [5]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.49% (down 9 basis points), R007 at 1.52% (down 1 basis point), and R014 at 1.56% (down 1 basis point) [4]. - The overall trend indicates a slight decrease in interest rates across the board, reflecting a more favorable funding environment [4].

择机尝试跨期套利操作 已公布的10月金融、经济数据整体不及预期，政策加码预期升温。不过，央行重提"跨周期调节"，同时 继续淡化总量金融指标，意味着短期内降准、降息落地的可能性不大。综合分析，国债价格走势相对纠 结。 近期，债市整体处于震荡格局。截至11月18日收盘，TL主力合约周内涨0.40%，T主力合约涨0.10%， TF主力合约涨0.07%，TS主力合约跌0.04%。 指标走弱可能是阶段性的 税期走款高峰叠加政府债券净融资规模不低，本周市场资金面有所收敛。截至11月17日收盘，DR001、 DR007分别升至1.5119%和1.5236%，较11月15日分别上行13.9和5.63个基点。不过，考虑到当前央行对 流动性的呵护态度不变，重启国债买卖后对冲手段也更为丰富，预计阶段性影响过后，资金面将重回均 衡偏松状态。 央行三季度货币政策执行报告延续宽松基调，"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"以及删除"防范资金空转"等 表述，相较二季度报告更显积极。不过，央行一方面重提"跨周期调节"，另一方面继续淡化总量金融指 标，意味着短期内降准、降息落地的可能性不大。 央行三季度货币政策执行报告专栏4强调了"合理的利率比价关系" ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations in interest rates, with increasing speculation about potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, yet the central bank's monetary policy remains steadfast without immediate changes [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Response - In early November, the first batch of fourth-quarter fundamental data was released, showing inflation exceeding expectations while other indicators, such as credit, fixed asset investment, and real estate sales, fell short [2]. - The central bank has communicated a cautious "loose monetary" signal, indicating that future funding conditions may be more optimistic than the market anticipates, despite downplaying the importance of total financial volume [2][3]. Interest Rate Trends - As of November 17, the interbank bond market showed mixed yield movements, with the 3-month government bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.38%, the 2-year yield stable around 1.43%, and the 10-year yield at approximately 1.81% [2]. - Analysts suggest that the bond market may need to adapt to a slower monetary policy response, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the future [3]. Future Monetary Policy Expectations - There is optimism among industry insiders regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts, particularly if upcoming economic indicators, such as the November PMI data, do not meet expectations [3][4]. - The central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" and the potential for further easing of monetary policy are seen as supportive of domestic economic recovery [4]. Investment Strategies - Short-term strategies in the bond market are likely to focus on yield spreads and the relative value of different bond types, with a preference for short-term securities due to their higher certainty compared to long-term bonds [5]. - Analysts recommend a "barbell strategy" for bond market positioning, balancing short-term safety with long-term trading opportunities to manage potential market volatility [5]. Year-End Market Dynamics - There is an expectation of profit-taking pressure as the year-end approaches, with institutions advised to maintain positions while being vigilant for signs of market adjustments [6]. - The bond market is characterized by low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, which may hinder active trading strategies [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength and remain in a favorable window period. Market expectations for further monetary policy easing in Q4, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, have boosted market sentiment. [8] - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the marginal decline in the effectiveness of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and new growth drivers still in the cultivation stage, combined with potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment is crucial for policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue. [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints - **Market Performance**: Last week, treasury bond futures contracts of different maturities showed mixed gains and losses with limited fluctuations. [4] - **Policy Impact**: The Q3 monetary policy implementation report indicates a possible marginal loosening of the monetary policy tone, reducing the probability of liquidity disturbances. The central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases on November 17, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan after offsetting maturities. [4] - **Macro Data**: Some financial data indicators showed a slowdown in growth, slightly lower than seasonal performance. The financing demand of the household sector remained weak, and corporate bill - padding was significant. The peak of local government bond issuance has passed, and its support for social financing has weakened marginally. [4] Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: The report presents data on the volume and price of open - market operations, including reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities (MLF), as well as their historical trends. [10][11][13] - **Funding Costs**: It shows various funding cost indicators such as deposit - based pledged repo rates, SHIBOR, and Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repo rates, along with their historical trends. [20] - **Yield Spreads**: The report includes information on treasury bond yield spreads, US treasury bond yield spreads, and their historical trends. [35][37][39] Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Basis and Net Basis**: It provides data on the basis and net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [45][53][54] - **IRR and Implied Interest Rate**: The report shows the implied repo rate (IRR) and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [60][66][67]

Group 1 - The current market does not expect significant short-term interest rate cuts, making it difficult for long-term government bond rates and short-term deposit rates to decline significantly [1] - The year-end focus should be on institutional allocation willingness and equity market performance, which could impact the government bond spread [1] - Two investment strategies are suggested: 1) opt for slightly lower duration for defense and wait for a 5 basis point rate adjustment before considering longer duration opportunities; 2) maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, focusing on active bonds where spreads may compress [1] Group 2 - The Q3 monetary policy report indicates a cautious approach to significant rate cuts or reserve requirement reductions, emphasizing stable growth as the primary goal of monetary policy [2] - The current duration measurement is 4.5 years, with a focus on the absolute yield and credit spread compression opportunities in the 3-5 year credit bond market [2] - The credit bond market is expected to follow the trends of government bonds, with a recommendation to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains [2] Group 3 - Convertible bonds in sectors like electronics, TMT, and automotive are significantly higher than other industries, indicating investor expectations for stock price increases and volatility [3] - The proportion of high premium convertible bonds in the market is higher than in previous years, suggesting that if stock market expectations remain stable, high premium convertible bonds will continue to thrive [3] - The valuation of convertible bonds is rising, but the sustainability of this increase depends on stock market expectations [3] Group 4 - As of November 14, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF index has seen a slight decline of 0.01%, while the ETF itself has increased by 0.01% [5] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has shown a 3.15% increase over the past year, with active trading and a recent scale of 1.656 billion yuan [5] - The ETF has a historical profitability rate of 100% over three years, with a monthly profitability probability of 71.06% [5] Group 5 - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF in the past six months is 1.09%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [6] - The ETF closely tracks the index of active government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, reflecting the overall performance of these bonds [6]