招联首席经济学家董希淼表示，2025年以来，一揽子重磅政策陆续出台，其政策效应还需要进一步发 挥。加强存量政策执行落实和持续优化，是2026年宏观政策重要着力点。 经济日报：2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期 和跨周期调节力度。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，伴随美国高关税对全球贸易和我国出口负面影响的逐步显现，二季 度宏观经济可能出现一定下行压力，届时不排除逆周期调节政策发力的可能。 在此过程中，适时实施降准降息尤其是引导LPR稳中有降，仍然具有空间和可能。中信证券首席经济学 家明明分析，在当下实体经济融资成本已相对较低，而银行息差有待修复的环境下，国内降息的紧迫性 并不强，实际操作节奏可能取决于信贷需求修复情况，需关注一季度各项金融数据成色。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality in economic work, aiming for a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. Group 1: International and Domestic Situations - In 2025, the economic work will be reviewed, highlighting achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and analyzing both international and domestic challenges [3][4]. - Internationally, geopolitical tensions and economic instability are increasing, with predictions of a decline in global trade growth from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2026 [5]. - Domestically, there are significant challenges such as weak consumer demand and investment growth, with per capita consumer spending growth lagging behind disposable income growth [6]. Group 2: Economic Support and Reform - The article outlines five essential principles for economic work, including fully tapping economic potential and combining policy support with reform innovation [8][9]. - It stresses the need for a balanced approach between market freedom and government regulation to foster a healthy economic environment [10]. Group 3: Investment and Human Capital - There is a call for a dual focus on investing in physical assets and human capital, emphasizing the importance of improving living standards and developing human resources [11][12]. - The need for investment in education, healthcare, and skills training is highlighted to enhance overall productivity and economic resilience [12]. Group 4: Key Economic Tasks for 2026 - The article outlines key tasks for 2026, including expanding domestic demand, promoting technological and industrial innovation, and deepening reforms to stimulate high-quality development [13][14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of improving the business environment and enhancing cooperation in international trade [16]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Risk Management - There is a strong focus on improving people's livelihoods, with policies aimed at stabilizing employment and enhancing social services [17]. - The article also addresses the need for effective risk management in key sectors, particularly in real estate and local government debt [18].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation is weak, with the January PMI falling more than seasonally. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the economic indicators are expected to decline further. However, structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's expectation of monetary easing is not strong. The planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing concerns about supply pressure [11]. - The current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not fully price in the potential easing space. There is support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank is actively maintaining the money market, so the upside space of interest rates is limited. In February, the bond market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors and may continue to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will actively maintain the cross - festival money market, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, so the market environment is relatively warm. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will increase. Although the return of cash will supplement liquidity, the central bank usually withdraws funds, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous. This week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival, trading is expected to be light, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions on the Day**: The money market improved slightly but remained in a tight balance. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with a larger decline in long - term interest rates. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.774%, a decrease of 1.2bp [9]. - **Money Market**: The inter - bank money market improved marginally but remained in a tight balance. The net reverse repurchase injection in the open market was 448 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index was high in the morning and slightly declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day funds rate fell about 1.3bp to around 1.53%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "Fourth - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" on February 10. The report proposed that the central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, support the good start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It also introduced three ways of coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy [13]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae said she is open to dialogue with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded that such "dialogue" is unacceptable [13]. - US President Trump said he is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The US and Iran restarted negotiations in Oman last Friday, and the second - round negotiation is expected to be held next week [14]. - Before the Spring Festival, the competition among banks for deposits has heated up again. Small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, while large banks use methods such as giving points and reward vouchers. Multiple institutions and industry insiders believe that the matured time - deposit funds in 2026 are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more to low - risk assets such as bank wealth management, money market funds, and insurance [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 12, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and change in the pledged repurchase rate of inter - bank deposits [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily - Date: February 12, 2026 - Research Team: Macro - Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the bond market is a mix of long and short factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in February. Before the Spring Festival, the market environment is relatively warm, and after the festival, the supply pressure will increase. Long - term bonds may be more favorable. In the last trading week before the festival, trading is expected to decline, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The money market remained in a tight balance, but institutional allocation demand continued to improve. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment approaching the long holiday, treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed a pattern of short - term increase and long - term decrease, with the decline of long - term active bonds around 1bp. The inter - bank money market tightened, with a net reverse - repurchase injection of 403.5 billion yuan in the open market. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day fund rate dropped about 1.9bp to around 1.54%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Although the current fundamentals are weak, the expected market easing is not strong. The large supply pressure of local bonds in the first quarter is a concern, but the current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not price in the possible future easing. With the support of allocation demand at the beginning of the year and the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the money market, the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2025" on February 10, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and introduce three ways of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [13] - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae expressed her willingness to have dialogue with China, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that such a "dialogue" with confrontation actions was unacceptable [13] - US President Trump said he was considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US - Iran talks is expected to be held next week [14] - During the "good start" deposit - attracting competition of banks before the Spring Festival, small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, and large banks use methods such as giving points and reward rebates. The due deposit funds are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more into low - risk assets [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 11, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. It also mentions the inter - period spread and inter - variety spread of the main treasury bond futures contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Relevant data on the money market are presented, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are provided [35]

Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the economy is expected to stabilize and improve, supported by strong economic fundamentals and new growth drivers, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average[3] - The CPI for 2025 is projected to remain flat year-on-year, while the PPI has increased for three consecutive months, indicating positive changes in price dynamics[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank is prepared to implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, emphasizing the need to manage the timing and intensity of these policies[5] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting key areas such as technology, green finance, and elderly care finance, with a continued emphasis on expanding domestic demand and supporting small and micro enterprises[5] Financial Market Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of deepening interest rate marketization reforms to enhance the transmission channels of monetary policy, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs for society[6] - The central bank remains vigilant against potential exchange rate risks, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to stabilize market expectations[6] Liquidity and Financial Stability - The report discusses the limited impact of deposit outflows from households and enterprises on overall financial liquidity, as the total liquidity indicators have shown steady growth[6] - The asset management product growth rate reached its highest level since the implementation of new regulations, driven by a rapid decline in deposit rates post-2024[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include economic downturns exceeding expectations and policy execution falling short of anticipated outcomes[7]

重大行情/事件点评 贵金属市场波动、政策变革与历史镜鉴 2026 年2 月5 日 研究员：赵嘉瑜 13686866941 zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn Z0016776 近期贵金属市场出现史诗级波动，白银价格暴涨暴跌的态势，与 1979-1980 年亨 特兄弟白银逼仓事件形成跨越时空的呼应。与此同时，2026 年美国政坛迎来重要 变动，特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其政策主张引发市场对美 国货币政策、财政纪律及全球资产定价的广泛热议。本报告整合相关宏观分析成 果，从历史复盘、当下市场特征、政策变革挑战及投资启示四大维度，系统剖析 贵金属市场波动逻辑与美国经济政策走向，为市场参与者提供参考。 风险提示：沃什未能成为美联储主席 微信公众号：招商期货研究所 敬请阅读末页的重要声明 期货研究 一、 历史复盘：1979-1980 年白银逼仓事件始末 （一） 时代背景：滞胀危机与货币体系变革 20 世纪 70 年代，美国深陷滞胀泥潭，中东二次石油危机爆发导致 CPI 飙升至 12.5%，黄金、白银成为核心避险资产。布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，大宗商品价格暴涨， 股市、债市持续低迷，形成商品资源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and monetary policy still has a certain degree of determination. The central bank may maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through structural tools or timely reserve requirement ratio cuts. In the bond market, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the wait-and-see sentiment will continue in the short term, and it is more likely to be volatile [2][10][12]. - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, indicating that China's bond market opening continues to advance. This not only releases a positive signal of China's financial market opening but also has multiple meanings such as constructing diversified foreign currency financing channels and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. - In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate investment and sales further weakened, and the real estate market continued to operate at the bottom, with the confidence of real estate enterprises to be restored [4][18]. - The central bank provided liquidity support last week, and the overall capital price showed a downward trend. The issuance scale of the primary credit bond market increased significantly, and the issuance cost mostly declined. In the secondary market, the trading activity continued to decline, and the credit bond yields fluctuated [5][6][35]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **LPR Remains Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months**: The 1 - year LPR is 3.00%, and the 5 - year and above LPR is 3.50%, both remaining unchanged for 6 months. The reasons include the narrowing of the net interest margin of commercial banks, the current low - level interest rate, and the emphasis on "cross - cycle adjustment" in monetary policy. The central bank may use structural tools or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [2][10][12]. - **Foreign - Currency Sovereign Bonds Issued Continuously**: On November 18, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg. The total subscription amount was 100.1 billion euros, 25 times the issuance amount. It is innovative in product types, with diversified investor structures. It has multiple meanings such as reducing exchange - rate risks, providing pricing references, and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.34 from the previous value. National real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the same period last year [4][18]. Money Market - The central bank conducted 5 periods of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 167.6 billion yuan and 1 period of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan last week. After deducting the maturity amount, the net investment in the open market was 123.4 billion yuan. Except for DR014 and DR1M, most term pledged repurchase rates decreased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor slightly decreased, and the 1 - year Shibor remained unchanged [21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds last week was 356.661 billion yuan, an increase of 105.252 billion yuan from the previous value. Except for the private placement corporate bonds, the issuance scale of other bond types increased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, while the industrial bond financing situation varied. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly declined, especially for medium - and high - grade bonds [6][24][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The secondary - market spot trading volume of bonds last week was 822.4458 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.3106 billion yuan from the previous period. The average daily spot trading volume decreased to 164.4892 billion yuan. The bond market yields fluctuated. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends, and most of the rating spreads expanded [35]. Appendix - **Credit Risk Events in the Bond Market**: There were events such as bond extensions and defaults of some real estate and media companies, including the interest extension of "H1 Greenview 01" and "H1 Greenview 02" and the principal and interest default of "17 Huawen Media MTN001H" [44]. - **Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics**: There were updates to the list of special institutional investors for private placement debt financing instruments, and policies such as including savings bonds (electronic) in the scope of personal pension products [45]. - **Monthly Net Financing of Main Credit Bond Types**: The net financing of different types of credit bonds showed different trends from January 2024 to October 2025 [46].

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 02 日 近忧或已解，远虑未迫近——2 月债市策略 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 收 益 专 题 1 月利率先上后下，转折点主要在于政府债供给与信贷扩张的潜在冲 击不及预期，但这背后可能也受到了央行政策态度变化的影响。此前 Q4 央 行提到"做好逆周期和跨周期调节"，《金融时报》也表示货币政策带来的 积极效果还可能持续显现发力，必须警惕过度放松货币金融条件可能产生 的一些负面效果，在 M2 与社融增速超过 8%、明显高于目标的情况下，进 一步放松的动力可能下降。但 1 月以来，可能由于 25Q4GDP 增速降至 4.5% 后中央稳增长的诉求增强，叠加 1 月信贷扩张幅度弱于预期，央行对于稳 信贷的诉求似乎有所增强，表示 M2 与社融高于目标较好地满足了实体经 济的资金需求，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境，这可能反 映了在适度宽松的货币政策下，央行可以在一定程度上容忍 M2 与社融增 速高于目标，对其过度放松副作用的担忧也明显减弱。 近期市场对央行后续创设新型工具的预期升温，尤其是认为针对非银 的工具可能类似于美联储 ONRRP。但 ONRRP 是美国 ...

Economic Stability and Progress - China's economy is showing resilience and stability, with a projected GDP growth of 5% by 2025, marking a significant milestone as the total economic output surpasses 140 trillion yuan [1] - The country has made notable advancements in technology and innovation, ranking 10th in the global innovation capability index and maintaining the top position in the Nature Index for scientific leadership [1] - The development of new productive forces is evident, with over 35,000 basic-level smart factories and a significant number of advanced and excellent-level factories established, reflecting a strong trend in industrial upgrading [1] Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite challenges from external tariffs, China's foreign trade has shown unexpected growth, particularly in exports to non-U.S. countries, with strong performance in sectors like integrated circuits, automobiles, and medical devices [2] - The export growth indicates a clear trend of upgrading the industrial value chain, although domestic demand remains weak compared to supply [2] Macroeconomic Policy Implementation - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [3] - The goal for 2035 is to reach a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating a doubling of the economic total from 2020 levels, which requires sustained annual growth rates above 4.5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a more active fiscal policy, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and debt while optimizing expenditure structures to support strategic national initiatives [4] - A moderately loose monetary policy is to be continued, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors [5] Supply and Demand Balance - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic market is crucial, with initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and investment through government-led projects [6] - The government aims to increase public service spending to alleviate household burdens and stimulate consumption, particularly in the service sector [6] Investment and Innovation - Government investment is expected to play a significant role in driving growth, particularly in major infrastructure projects and social welfare initiatives [7] - Emphasis is placed on technological innovation, with plans to enhance the capabilities of key innovation centers in major urban areas, thereby improving China's position in the global innovation landscape [8] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to address supply-demand imbalances, including the establishment of a unified national market and improvements in the tax system to incentivize local consumption [9] - Accelerating the urbanization of rural populations is identified as a key strategy to boost consumption and expand domestic demand [9]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In December 2025, industrial production increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.49%[13] - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from Q3[29] - The annual GDP growth target of 5% was successfully achieved[32] Group 2: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.13% in December[13] - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, but the growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points[20] - Real estate development investment dropped by 17.2% year-on-year, with the decline deepening by 1.3 percentage points[21] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales totaled 45,136 billion yuan in December, growing by 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[23] - Retail sales excluding automobiles reached 39,654 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.7%[13] - Consumption in gold and jewelry, as well as traditional Chinese and Western medicines, saw significant declines[24]