2025.10. 25 本文字数：1090，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间10月24日，美国白宫警告称，受政府持续关门影响，美国劳工统计局（BLS）可能无法按 计划发布10月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。若情况属实，这将是自该指标设立以来首次出 现"通胀数据缺席"的历史性事件。 美国政府关门已进入第四周。参议院民主党人多次否决临时支出法案，称若不延长医疗保险补贴条 款，将拒绝支持拨款措施。资金短缺迫使大批联邦雇员被迫休假，其中包括参与物价调查的劳工统计 局工作人员。 白宫在社交平台上表示，由于国会未能通过拨款，BLS的调查人员无法进行实地价格采集，"我们因 此无法获得关键数据"。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特补充说，这可能令企业、市场、家庭以及美联 储陷入混乱。 数据采集中断 按惯例，劳工统计局每月需在统计期内完成上千项商品与服务价格的采集与核验。然而，随着政府资 金冻结，多数调查员无法进入实地工作场所，统计体系因此出现断层。 业内分析人士表示，若价格采集工作在整月停滞，意味着缺乏可计算的基础样本。即便政府在11月 初恢复运作，重新补采价格信息也几乎不可能在短时间内完成。 与价格调查 ...

美国政府关门已进入第四周。参议院民主党人多次否决临时支出法案，称若不延长医疗保险补贴条款， 将拒绝支持拨款措施。资金短缺迫使大批联邦雇员被迫休假，其中包括参与物价调查的劳工统计局工作 人员。 美联储决策难度上升 当地时间10月24日，美国白宫警告称，受政府持续关门影响，美国劳工统计局（BLS）可能无法按计划 发布10月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。若情况属实，这将是自该指标设立以来首次出现"通胀数据 缺席"的历史性事件。 白宫在社交平台上表示，由于国会未能通过拨款，BLS的调查人员无法进行实地价格采集，"我们因此 无法获得关键数据"。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特补充说，这可能令企业、市场、家庭以及美联储陷入 混乱。 数据采集中断 按惯例，劳工统计局每月需在统计期内完成上千项商品与服务价格的采集与核验。然而，随着政府资金 冻结，多数调查员无法进入实地工作场所，统计体系因此出现断层。 业内分析人士表示，若价格采集工作在整月停滞，意味着缺乏可计算的基础样本。即便政府在11月初恢 复运作，重新补采价格信息也几乎不可能在短时间内完成。 与价格调查相比，就业数据的发布可能稍显可行。专家解释说，企业通常掌握自身雇佣与解雇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, does not consider the government's financing needs when formulating interest rate policies, emphasizing its mandate to control inflation and maintain a strong labor market [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve's primary mission, authorized by Congress, is to control inflation while keeping the job market robust [1] - He highlighted that no developed economy's central bank would factor in the fiscal needs of the government when setting monetary policy, as doing so could undermine the Fed's credibility [1] Group 2: Government Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. government's interest payments last year amounted to $1.1 trillion, with the cost of managing government debt more than doubling compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] - This increase in debt management costs is largely attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation [1] - Former President Trump suggested that a 3% reduction in interest rates could save the U.S. $1 trillion annually [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should resign from his Board position after his term ends in May 2026, following traditional practices [2] - Powell's current term as a Federal Reserve Board member extends until January 2028, allowing him to potentially remain involved in monetary policy even after his chairmanship ends [2][3] - The process for identifying the next Federal Reserve Chairman has formally begun, with many qualified candidates being considered both inside and outside the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - The expectation of Powell remaining at the Federal Reserve complicates the decision-making process for the Trump administration as they seek a chairman who aligns with their economic agenda, particularly someone who favors interest rate cuts [3] - If Powell continues as a Board member, the Trump administration will only have one vacancy to fill, which is the seat of Board member Quarles, whose term ends in January [3] - Key candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include top economic advisor Kevin Hassett, former Board member Kevin Warsh, Treasury Secretary Becerra, and current Board member Waller [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuyuki Masu emphasizes the importance of considering staff opinions and data in policy formulation while acknowledging that inflation trends remain below target [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focused on listening to the opinions of its staff and utilizing data to inform its policy decisions [1] - There is an agreement that current inflation trends are still below the target set by the Bank of Japan [1] - Attention is required on trade negotiations between the government and the United States, which may impact economic policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has evolved from initial trust to public conflict, highlighting the tension between political influence and central bank independence [1][5]. Group 1: Initial Expectations - Trump initially appointed Powell with high hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and achieve his vision of "Make America Great Again" [1]. - Powell was seen as a key figure capable of maintaining good communication with the White House and promoting economic prosperity during their initial "honeymoon" period [1]. Group 2: Rising Tensions - The honeymoon phase ended as the U.S. economy recovered, leading the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates multiple times in 2018 to combat inflation, which triggered Trump's dissatisfaction [2]. - Trump publicly criticized the Fed's rate hikes, labeling them as "crazy" and claiming they were harming the U.S. economy [2][3]. Group 3: Continued Conflict - Trump's discontent with the Fed's policies led him to break the long-standing tradition of the White House refraining from commenting on monetary policy, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [3]. - During a recent meeting, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that current rates put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage against countries like China [4]. Group 4: Fed's Response and Independence - Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to independence, stating that monetary policy decisions would be based on economic data rather than political pressure [5]. - Following the meeting, the Fed emphasized its independence and data-driven decision-making principles to maintain its credibility as an independent central bank [5]. - U.S. law protects the Fed's independence, preventing the President from arbitrarily dismissing the Fed Chair, a principle reinforced by a 2025 Supreme Court ruling [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The evolving relationship between Trump and Powell illustrates the inherent tension between political power and central bank independence, significantly impacting U.S. economic policy [5]. - The situation raises important discussions about central bank independence, providing valuable insights for global central banks [6].