鲍威尔：在货币政策制定中不考虑政府的利率成本 金十数据7月31日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，美联储在制定利率政策时没有考虑政府融资需求的 空间。鲍威尔在FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储肩负国会授权的使命，是控制通胀同时尽可 能保持就业市场的强劲。他表示，鉴于这一法定职责，"我们不考虑联邦政府的财政需求。没有哪个发 达经济体的央行会这么做"，这种做法也会损害美联储信誉。美国政府去年的利息支出为1.1万亿美元， 政府债务管理成本比新冠大流行之前增加了一倍多，这在很大程度上是由于美联储为降低通胀水平而维 持利率高企所致。特朗普曾称，要是降息3%，美国每年节省1万亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should resign from his Board position after his term ends in May 2026, following traditional practices [2] - Powell's current term as a Federal Reserve Board member extends until January 2028, allowing him to potentially remain involved in monetary policy even after his chairmanship ends [2][3] - The process for identifying the next Federal Reserve Chairman has formally begun, with many qualified candidates being considered both inside and outside the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - The expectation of Powell remaining at the Federal Reserve complicates the decision-making process for the Trump administration as they seek a chairman who aligns with their economic agenda, particularly someone who favors interest rate cuts [3] - If Powell continues as a Board member, the Trump administration will only have one vacancy to fill, which is the seat of Board member Quarles, whose term ends in January [3] - Key candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include top economic advisor Kevin Hassett, former Board member Kevin Warsh, Treasury Secretary Becerra, and current Board member Waller [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuyuki Masu emphasizes the importance of considering staff opinions and data in policy formulation while acknowledging that inflation trends remain below target [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focused on listening to the opinions of its staff and utilizing data to inform its policy decisions [1] - There is an agreement that current inflation trends are still below the target set by the Bank of Japan [1] - Attention is required on trade negotiations between the government and the United States, which may impact economic policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has evolved from initial trust to public conflict, highlighting the tension between political influence and central bank independence [1][5]. Group 1: Initial Expectations - Trump initially appointed Powell with high hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and achieve his vision of "Make America Great Again" [1]. - Powell was seen as a key figure capable of maintaining good communication with the White House and promoting economic prosperity during their initial "honeymoon" period [1]. Group 2: Rising Tensions - The honeymoon phase ended as the U.S. economy recovered, leading the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates multiple times in 2018 to combat inflation, which triggered Trump's dissatisfaction [2]. - Trump publicly criticized the Fed's rate hikes, labeling them as "crazy" and claiming they were harming the U.S. economy [2][3]. Group 3: Continued Conflict - Trump's discontent with the Fed's policies led him to break the long-standing tradition of the White House refraining from commenting on monetary policy, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [3]. - During a recent meeting, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that current rates put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage against countries like China [4]. Group 4: Fed's Response and Independence - Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to independence, stating that monetary policy decisions would be based on economic data rather than political pressure [5]. - Following the meeting, the Fed emphasized its independence and data-driven decision-making principles to maintain its credibility as an independent central bank [5]. - U.S. law protects the Fed's independence, preventing the President from arbitrarily dismissing the Fed Chair, a principle reinforced by a 2025 Supreme Court ruling [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The evolving relationship between Trump and Powell illustrates the inherent tension between political power and central bank independence, significantly impacting U.S. economic policy [5]. - The situation raises important discussions about central bank independence, providing valuable insights for global central banks [6].