Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump's comments suggest a desire for a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [1]. - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and economic advisors, with interviews planned for November [3]. - The selection of a new chairman is critical as it will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the central bank's independence [1][3]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, a close associate of Trump, is seen as a strong candidate, but his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence during economic crises [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who has previously criticized the Fed's policies, is also a leading candidate and aligns with Trump's views on monetary policy [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is considered a potential candidate who understands the Fed's operations and could implement reforms aligned with Trump's preferences [5]. - Michelle Bowman has a background in banking regulation and has opposed many Biden-era policies, making her an attractive option for Trump [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street executive, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal workings, which could provide a fresh perspective [5].

Core Points - The final list of five candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been confirmed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, with a decision from Trump expected by the end of the year [2][3] - The candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reed [2][4] - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, criticizing him for not significantly lowering interest rates, which he believes has negatively impacted the economy [2][3] Candidate Insights - Mnuchin plans to conduct another round of interviews and aims to present an "excellent candidate list" to Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday [2] - Reed, a notable figure on Wall Street, has impressed Mnuchin and is the only candidate who has never worked at the Fed, which could be seen as a positive factor [4] - Powell's term as chairman ends in May next year, but he has two years remaining on his current governor seat [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has narrowed down the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair to five individuals, indicating a significant step in the process of selecting a successor to the current chair, Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Candidate List - The five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position are Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder [1] - The Treasury Secretary plans to conduct a second round of interviews and aims to submit a qualified list to President Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday [1] Group 2: Timeline and Expectations - President Trump anticipates making a decision on the nominee to replace Jerome Powell by the end of the year [1] - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, describing him as "not very smart" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, plans to submit a list of three to four candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to President Trump after Thanksgiving, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Mnuchin stated that Trump will consider opinions from dozens or even hundreds of individuals before making a decision on the new Fed Chair [1] - The current Fed Chair, Powell, is set to end his term in May next year, creating an opportunity for a new appointment [1] Group 2: Criteria for Selection - One of the criteria for the new Fed Chair includes having an open mindset, particularly regarding interest rate policies [1] - Trump has been critical of Powell and the Fed for not lowering interest rates at the pace he desires, suggesting a preference for a more accommodative monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The academic community overwhelmingly supports Christopher Waller as the best candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with 82% of surveyed economists favoring him, but only 20% believe he will actually secure the position in 2026 [1][2] - Political dynamics suggest that Kevin Hassett is viewed as a more likely candidate for the role, with 39% of respondents indicating he has better chances, despite no one expressing a desire for him to take the position [1][2] - Waller's independent stance on monetary policy has garnered academic support but may hinder his nomination due to the political preferences of the Trump administration, which favors candidates who align with its agenda [1][2] Group 2 - The new chair will face significant challenges in formulating monetary policy amid a weak labor market and inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with the Federal Reserve recently lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4-4.25% [3][4] - Most Federal Reserve officials are more concerned about slowing job growth than inflation risks, although surveyed economists warn of rising stagflation risks, where unemployment and inflation could rise simultaneously [3][4] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve complicates its decision-making, with historical tendencies showing a preference for prioritizing employment over inflation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $3800 per ounce, is driven by a combination of factors including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and increased central bank gold purchases [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange have seen a significant increase, breaking the $3800 per ounce barrier [2]. - In the domestic market, gold bar prices reached 843 RMB per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices rise to 1098 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 10 RMB [2]. - The influx of new capital into the gold market has been identified as a direct driver of the price increase [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is considered a key catalyst for the rising gold prices [4]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut rates 1-2 more times this year, which typically inversely affects gold prices [5]. - An analysis report indicates a greater than 60% probability of two additional rate cuts in the fourth quarter, further fueling gold price increases [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to seek safety in gold [7]. - Recent global recognition of Palestine by several countries has escalated tensions, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2302 tons), marking the tenth consecutive month of purchases [9]. - Data indicates that the proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, reflecting a strategic shift towards physical assets [9]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - There are differing opinions on the future trajectory of gold prices. Some analysts believe that the current environment supports a prolonged upward trend, potentially reaching $4000 per ounce [10]. - Concerns about a possible short-term price correction exist, as historical patterns show that gold bull markets often experience pullbacks [10]. - Investors are advised to consider safer investment options such as gold ETFs or physical gold, while being cautious of the risks associated with high leverage products [11].

2025.09. 07 本文字数：324，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，路透社5日报道，美国总统特朗普当天对记者表示，目前美联储主席候选人的名单已缩小至三人。 微信编辑 | 七三 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 山寨车鼻祖，上半年只卖了14辆车 Z] 公泰运车 (Z ● NNIT = = Mkir No. of the Research of the state 0 e 12 Stage Cities 星座子 2 I and and the A 27 li L 其中包括白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 特朗普还表示，他也会考虑美国财政部长贝森特。不过，贝森特表示无意担任这一职位。 数月来，特朗普持续要求美联储降息，由于美联储迟迟不愿降息，特朗普多次炮轰美联储现任主席鲍威尔，一度威胁要解除鲍威尔的职务。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, the procedures and rules of the Chairmanship change, and the potential impacts if the Fed's independence is weakened. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent are considering new candidates, which has raised concerns about the "independence" of monetary policy [1][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Candidates and Their Backgrounds - **Three main contenders**: Waller, Hassett, and Warsh are the leading candidates. As of August 21, according to Polymarket, Waller has a 32.0% probability of being nominated, followed by Warsh (10.7%) and Hassett (10.0%). According to Kalshi, Waller has a 29% chance, Hassett 19%, and Warsh 18% [2][10]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor and a dove. He is familiar with the Fed's operations, was appointed by Trump, and his policy views align with the White House. His election may raise questions about the central bank's independence [16]. - **Kevin Hassett**: The current director of the White House National Economic Council. He has rich government experience but relatively less monetary policy experience and is considered too close to the government [17][18]. - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, regarded as a dove, and supports Trump's call for rate cuts. He has extensive experience in various fields but lacks direct access to Trump [21][22]. - **Other candidates and potential "dark horse"**: Other candidates include current Fed officials, financial institution professionals, former Fed officials, and former government economists. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Milan, recently nominated as a Fed governor, may be a "dark horse." He advocates for reciprocal tariffs, has a dovish stance on interest rates, and wants to weaken the Fed's independence, which has raised concerns about his impact on the central bank's credibility [24][27]. 3.2 Procedures and Rules for the Fed Chairmanship Change The President usually announces the nominee 3 - 6 months in advance, with an average of 4.08 months from nomination to inauguration. Trump is expected to announce the nominee between December this year and January next year. If announced earlier, it may raise concerns about setting up a "shadow Fed." After Powell steps down as Chair, he is likely to resign as a governor. Trump can influence the Fed's policy by nominating new governors, but most current governors' terms extend beyond 2028, making it difficult for him to interfere [29][31]. 3.3 Potential Impacts of Weakened Fed Independence - **Increased stagflation risk**: Historical precedents show that when the Fed loses independence, stagflation can occur. If Trump appoints a closely - affiliated Fed Chair, the market may worry about repeating the 1973 - 1974 stagflation scenario [34]. - **Intensified fiscal concerns**: The Fed losing independence may turn it into a tool for the Treasury to issue debt, exacerbating concerns about the debt crisis given the high deficit and rising debt in the US [36]. - **Weakened US dollar status and capital flight**: The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency depends on the Fed's credibility. If the Fed is seen as politically controlled, investors may shift from dollar - denominated assets to alternatives like gold, leading to a vicious cycle [38]. - **US stock, bond, and currency sell - off**: A "black swan" event where the Fed is controlled by the White House could lead to a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, as demonstrated by the market reaction in July when there were rumors of firing Powell [38].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Background and Structure - Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman will end in May 2026, with President Trump frequently calling for interest rate cuts and criticizing Powell as "too late" this year[4] - The FOMC voting committee consists of 12 members, including 7 Federal Reserve governors with 14-year terms, 1 New York Fed president, and 4 rotating regional Fed presidents[10] - Trump can appoint up to 2 new Federal Reserve governors during his current term, potentially leading to 4 out of 7 governors being appointed by him by 2028[13] Group 2: Potential Candidates for Chairmanship - The top candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Kevin Walsh, with Waller having a 34% chance of winning the nomination as of August 18, 2025[30] - Waller advocates for a shift in focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing economic recession," emphasizing the importance of labor market feedback[30] - Hassett supports a more aggressive interest rate cut path and believes the Fed should prioritize economic stimulation over inflation concerns[34] Group 3: Policy Implications and Risks - If Waller is appointed, the Fed's policy may prioritize labor market conditions, with a potential preventive interest rate cut of 25 basis points[31] - Hassett's appointment could lead to increased scrutiny of the Fed's independence and a shift towards quantitative easing to support fiscal policies[34] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump and a rapid economic downturn that could prompt Powell to adopt a more dovish stance[37]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller is emerging as a strong candidate to succeed Powell as the Fed Chair, as Trump's advisors are impressed by Waller's willingness to adjust policies based on forecasts rather than current data [1] - Other candidates in the running include former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current NEC Director Kevin Hassett, with the position becoming available when Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising to 3397 before dropping, but managed to hold above the daily low of 3365, indicating a fierce short-term battle between bulls and bears [2] - A breakout above the key resistance level of 3400 could confirm a continuation of the short-term upward trend, with target levels set at 3420-3422, and a strong resistance area near the previous high of 3434-3435 [2] - The overall strategy suggests waiting for key levels to enter trades, with a focus on maintaining a bullish stance while being cautious about chasing positions [2] Group 3 - A buy strategy for gold is suggested at the 3375 level, with a stop loss at 3363 and a target range of 3405-3415, indicating a continuation of bullish sentiment if the price breaks above these levels [5] - For silver, the price action appears neutral, constrained by the 20-day moving average at 38.04, but a recent RSI breakout indicates a slight improvement in market sentiment [5] - If silver closes above the 20-day moving average, a rebound to 39.00 is expected, with resistance levels at 39.19 and 39.52 [5]