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2026年03月2日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯:申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260302
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although the prices of NYMEX platinum and palladium have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump has affected the prices, but long - term factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuation of the global central bank's gold - buying wave, and supply - demand imbalances in the industry still support the prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 623.75, 616.80, and 610.65 respectively, with price increases of 31.60, 29.85, and 30.25 and increases of 5.34%, 5.09%, and 5.21% respectively. The trading volumes are 16904, 384, and 138 respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 464.85, 458.50, and 458.00 respectively, with price increases of 12.55, 10.20, and 10.70 and increases of 2.77%, 2.28%, and 2.39% respectively. The trading volumes are 4636, 84, and 27 respectively [1] - **Position Information**: The positions of platinum and palladium futures are all 12639 and 4428 respectively [1] - **Spot Premium Information**: The spot premiums of platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610) are - 13.76, - 6.81, and - 0.66 respectively. The spot premiums of palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610) are - 16.85, - 10.5, and - 10 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price and Change Information**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Feng Xiang platinum are 609.99 yuan/g, 2366.00 dollars/ounce, 893.00 yuan/g, and 960.00 yuan/g respectively. The price changes are 18.39, 111.00, - 12.00, and 0.00 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.031%, 0.049%, - 0.013%, and 0.000% respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 448.00 yuan/g and 4394.91 rubles/g respectively, with price changes of 2.00 and - 147.57 respectively, and price increase rates of 0.004% and - 0.032% respectively [1] - **Ratio Information**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.11, - 6.95, - 13.10, 1.11, and - 6.35 respectively, while the previous values are 9.19, 0.72, - 6.50, - 10.60, - 0.15, and - 0.55 respectively [1] 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 577,735.59 ounces, a decrease of 459.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered platinum warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 313,567.94 ounces. The trading volume of platinum on the gold exchange is 3,696.15 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 1685.6 ten - thousand yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 62.00 kilograms, an increase of 28.00 kilograms compared to the previous value [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 186,268.54 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Related Indexes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury bond yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.64, 6,878.88, 3.97, 22,668.21, 48,977.92, and 6.92 respectively, with changes of - 0.14, - 29.98, - 0.05, - 210.17, - 521.28, and 0.00 respectively compared to the previous values [1] - **Gold and Silver Futures**: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1147.90, 1151.34, and 1154.28 respectively, with increases of 1.42, 1.24, and 1.28 respectively compared to the previous closing prices. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 23019.00, 22775.00, and 22736.00 respectively, with increases of 447, 489, and 558 respectively compared to the previous closing prices [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical Events**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have led to disruptions in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **US Fed Personnel Changes**: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, and Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [2] - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work conference, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]