标普全球数据显示，1月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）升至51.8，较前一月的50.6回升且略高于初值，连续三个月站在50荣枯线上方，确认行业进入扩张区 间。复苏呈现全面性，各品类企业均实现新订单增长，出口端突破成为关键动力——制造业新出口订单时隔四年首次改善，对欧、美、中出口同步增长，直 接推动产出创下去年10月以来最快增速。 标普全球市场情报总监Rob Dobson评价，英国制造业2026年开年表现稳健，在地缘政治紧张升级背景下仍展现出强劲韧性。英国政府此前推迟多数增税措 施，缓解企业成本压力与市场不确定性，叠加捷豹路虎英国工厂全面复工带动供应链复苏，为增长注入额外动力。 2026年开年，全球制造业区域分化显著。英国制造业率先走出低迷、彰显复苏韧性，欧元区则深陷收缩困境。这种差异叠加主要经济体货币政策预期调整， 主导近期外汇市场波动，成为当前全球经济运行的重要特征。 英国制造业复苏势头亮眼，创下工党执政以来最佳表现之一，逐步摆脱增税政策不确定性与地缘政治动荡的双重冲击。 制造业区域分化与主要经济体货币政策预期调整，共同主导近期汇市震荡，美元指数反弹是核心影响变量。昨日美元指数震荡上行，刷新6个交易日高位， ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a mild upward trend, influenced by fluctuations in oil prices and adjustments in market expectations regarding major economies' policies [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The Canadian dollar (CAD), as a commodity currency, is closely linked to international oil prices, with Canada being the largest exporter of crude oil to the U.S. [3]. - Recent fluctuations in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which recently fell to around $59.30 per barrel after two days of gains, have indirectly weakened the CAD, providing support for the USD against the CAD [3][4]. - The upward potential of the USD/CAD pair is constrained by uncertainties in U.S.-European trade relations, with new tariff plans and countermeasures being developed [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The USD is supported by stable domestic labor market data, which has delayed market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4]. - Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the urgency for further monetary policy easing is limited until there is clear evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target [4][5]. - Adjustments in institutional forecasts have pushed back the anticipated timing for the first rate cut, providing a fundamental support for the USD [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The 1.3870 level is identified as a key short-term resistance point for the USD/CAD exchange rate [3]. - If oil prices continue to decline or U.S. economic data remains strong, the exchange rate may test higher resistance levels; conversely, if trade tensions ease or oil demand expectations improve, the CAD may gain rebound momentum [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The USD/CAD exchange rate is likely to continue being influenced by oil market volatility, changes in monetary policy expectations from major economies, and developments in the international trade environment [5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data and policy movements, which may provide further guidance for exchange rate trends [5].