高盛集团在周日发布的一份报告中指出，尽管与俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗相关的地缘政治风险将持续引 发市场波动，但受一波供应增长造成市场过剩的影响，今年油价或将缓步走低。 责任编辑：王永生 高盛集团在周日发布的一份报告中指出，尽管与俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗相关的地缘政治风险将持续引 发市场波动，但受一波供应增长造成市场过剩的影响，今年油价或将缓步走低。 这家投行维持其对 2026 年布伦特原油 / 西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）的均价预测，即每桶 56 美元 / 52 美元，并预计随着经济合作与发展组织（OECD）原油库存增加，布伦特原油 / WTI 原油价格将在第四 季度跌至每桶 54 美元 / 50 美元的谷底。 高盛表示："全球原油库存不断攀升，且我们预测 2026 年原油市场将出现每日 230 万桶的供应过剩。这 意味着，除非出现大规模供应中断或石油输出国组织（OPEC）实施减产，否则要实现市场再平衡，就 可能需要通过 2026 年油价下行来放缓非欧佩克产油国的供应增长，并支撑强劲的需求增长。" 截至格林尼治标准时间 4 时 12 分，布伦特原油期货合约（交易代码 LCOc1）的交易价格在每桶 63 美 元左右， ...

美国页岩油行业的大佬们向美国总统特朗普发出警告：若执意掌控委内瑞拉石油产业并借此打压原油价 格，美国本土的石油产量将面临腰斩风险。 2024年，特朗普曾多次飞往德克萨斯州，向财大气粗的石油大亨们寻求竞选资金，如今这些举动让高管 们感到愤怒，私下里有人形容这是一场"背叛"。 "对我来说，政府释放的信号是：我们宁愿花美国人的钱去扶持委内瑞拉的石油生意，也不愿支持本土 现有的独立企业，"Latigo Petroleum的首席执行官Kirk Edwards表示。作为一家总部位于德克萨斯州敖德 萨的私营生产商，他还曾向特朗普的竞选捐款。 特朗普定于本周五会见美国石油巨头的掌门人，但那些未在受邀名单上的大型独立钻探商高管们，此刻 正对特朗普计划让委内瑞拉原油涌入美国的做法感到怒不可遏。 "这简直就是本届政府再次把我们往火坑里推，"一位美国顶级页岩油集团的高管直言，称这些计划 是"站在了美国生产商的对立面"。他还说道："如果美国政府开始为石油公司在委内瑞拉生产或增产提 供担保，那我真的要……气炸了。" 特朗普正极力推动开发委内瑞拉的石油宝藏，甚至可能为投资者提供补贴，这一举动进一步加剧了他与 德克萨斯州石油高管之间的紧张关 ...

Group 1 - Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.2% to $60 per barrel before slightly rising to around $60.8, while WTI prices remained stable at $57.3 per barrel [1][4] - Venezuela's current oil production accounts for less than 1% of global supply, constrained by U.S. sanctions and maritime blockades, despite holding approximately 17% of the world's proven oil reserves [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts warn of a potential oversupply in the oil market, with expectations that U.S. intervention may lower oil prices as more Venezuelan oil could return to the market [2][5] - Market sentiment is described as the most pessimistic in a decade, with record short positions in Brent and historically low long positions in WTI [3][7] - OPEC+ decided not to adjust its strategy during a recent meeting, agreeing to maintain production cuts at least until April [3][7] Group 3 - Venezuela's oil production may further decline due to severe restrictions on importing necessary diluents for heavy crude oil exports, with reports indicating that the state oil company PDVSA has requested some joint venture partners to cut production [3][7] - It is confirmed that between 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day of production are forced offline, with the potential for this number to increase [4][7] - The performance of risk assets in the short term is influenced by market perceptions of the likelihood of worst-case scenarios, with recent developments in Venezuela seemingly averting a full-scale conflict [4][7]

由于受到原油走势疲软以及马来西亚出口下降的影响，棕榈油价格连续第二个交易日下跌，触及两周以来的最低点。 周五，棕榈油期货价格跌破每吨4000林吉特(约合986美元);与此同时，棕榈油在燃料和食品市场最主要的竞争对手——豆油的价格在周三也收跌1.8%。 这一背景是，由于市场面临广泛的地缘政治风险以及全球供应的持续增长，原油在2025年结束时创下了自2020年以来最大的年度跌幅。西德克萨斯中质原油 (WTI)周三下跌0.9%，结算价为57.42美元，使其2025全年的跌幅达到20%。 棕榈油价格跟随原油走弱走低走低 Kaleesuwari Intercontinental交易与套期保值策略主管Gnanasekar Thiagarajan表示，马来西亚出口疲软也令棕榈油市场承压。根据AmSpec的数据，这个全球第 二大种植国的出口量在12月份环比下降了5%，至120万吨。 Thiagarajan表示："由于节日季的采购可能会在每吨4,000林吉特下方提供支撑，预计棕榈油会出现逢低买入。2026年2月农历新年和斋月前的需求预计将推动 价格上涨。" ...

Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil recorded its largest annual decline since 2020, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global supply, with a projected oversupply expected to continue affecting prices into 2026 [2][8] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 0.9%, settling at $57.42 per barrel, marking a 20% decline for the year [2][8] - Analysts predict that oil prices will fluctuate between $50 and $70, with uncertainties surrounding supply from Venezuela and Russia providing some price support [2][8] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices experienced their largest annual increase since 2009, rising by 42% year-to-date on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by strong demand for electrification and recent supply tightness [3][9] - The surge in copper prices outperformed other industrial metals in the market [3][9] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on the last trading day of 2025 but are still on track to achieve their largest annual gains in over 40 years, attributed to strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][11] - Spot gold hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver dipped towards $71 per ounce, with significant market volatility prompting increased margin requirements for futures [5][11] - Both metals are set for their best annual performance since 1979, driven by inflation concerns and rising debt burdens in developed economies [5][11]

面对多重地缘政治风险与全球原油供应稳步攀升的双重压力，国际油价年终收跌，创下2020年以来最大 年度跌幅。市场普遍预计，供应过剩的严峻局面将在2026年持续压制油价走势。西德克萨斯中质原油 （WTI）价格下跌0.9%，收于每桶57.42美元，全年累计跌幅达20%。布伦特原油期货结算价报每桶 60.85美元，下跌48美分，跌幅0.78%。短期内，交易商将焦点放在即将召开的欧佩克+会议，以及特朗 普针对俄罗斯、伊朗、委内瑞拉等主要产油国的政策走向之上。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The WTIBTC quantitative signal source is leading a trading revolution at the intersection of energy and digital assets, particularly focusing on WTI crude oil and Bitcoin, utilizing advanced quantitative algorithms to provide precise and timely trading signals [1][8] - The model behind WTIBTC does not rely on a single dimension of information but systematically tracks and analyzes key factors affecting both WTI and Bitcoin markets, including global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical conflicts, macroeconomic indicators, and on-chain data for Bitcoin [3][5] Market Dynamics - The energy trading market, especially in crude oil, is increasingly intertwined with the trading ecosystem of digital currencies like Bitcoin, influenced by global macroeconomic events, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment fluctuations [1][8] - Traditional trading tools often focus on single market analysis, making it difficult to capture the interactive effects across asset classes, which WTIBTC aims to address [1][8] Quantitative Model Features - The WTIBTC model identifies complex relationships between WTI and BTC prices, particularly under specific macroeconomic shocks, and analyzes potential non-linear transmission paths and lead-lag relationships [5] - The model processes vast amounts of historical data and continuously optimizes through backtesting to quantify the strength and patterns of cross-market linkages during specific event windows [5] Trading Signals and Risk Management - WTIBTC provides actionable quantitative trading signals that indicate specific operational directions (e.g., long, short, hold) and recommend position sizes, integrating deep risk control measures [7] - The system evaluates overall market volatility, liquidity conditions, and potential amplification risks from cross-market effects, allowing for dynamic adjustments in position management and stop-loss strategies [7] Market Reception and Application - The practical application of the WTIBTC signal source has garnered significant attention, with more professional trading institutions and individual investors viewing it as an essential decision-making tool [7][8] - For energy traders, WTIBTC offers insights into how core trading assets like WTI may be influenced by the burgeoning digital asset market, while for cryptocurrency participants, it provides a unique path to assess market risk appetite and macro fund flows through the lens of energy commodities [7][8]

Group 1 - Oil prices have risen, narrowing the decline for the second consecutive week, as the market weighs the impact of sanctions on Russian oil production against the potential for an upcoming oversupply of crude oil [1] - U.S. crude futures have rebounded above $60 per barrel, but remain in a downward trend for the week, with stock market volatility contributing to concerns over oversupply [1] - The White House's measures to limit Russian oil purchases have led Gunvor Group to withdraw its proposal to acquire international assets from Lukoil PJSC, which include oil field stakes, refineries, and gas stations [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant increase in oil supply from OPEC and non-OPEC countries by the end of this year through 2026, potentially leading to record oversupply [2] - Despite signs of oversupply from increased tanker transport, major oil storage hubs have not yet shown significant impact, with U.S. crude inventories decreasing at the end of October compared to the beginning of the month [2] - In Asia, China's crude oil imports have increased year-on-year in October, but the growth rate of China's oil reserves is expected to slow, which may weaken support for oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC and its partners have announced a pause in their production increase plans starting from Q1 2026, anticipating a seasonal slowdown in oil demand, which may lead to an oversupply in the market next year and further pressure on oil prices [1][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices have seen a cumulative decline of approximately 9% over the past three months, primarily due to OPEC+'s accelerated production recovery and increased output from the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers [1] - Analysts indicate that the pause in production quotas signals OPEC+'s dynamic adjustment to market conditions, despite not significantly altering production forecasts [3] - Current market conditions show WTI prices fluctuating between $59 and $63, with a potential breakout above $63 possibly leading to $65, while a drop below $59 could indicate a return to a bearish trend [3] Group 2: Supply Risks - The recent sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have added uncertainty to the supply outlook, with concerns raised by energy executives at the ADIPEC conference regarding supply risks [1][4] - BP's CEO highlighted that the latest sanctions have materially impacted supply capabilities, although some oil-producing countries are attempting to reassure the market [4] - Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that while short-term price expectations for Brent have been raised, significant supply surplus pressures are still anticipated in the coming months [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as drone attacks in Ukraine affecting oil infrastructure, have contributed to supply concerns and market volatility [3][4] - The divergence in institutional views indicates a lack of consensus in the market, with the real risk being a rapid recovery in supply that could suppress oil prices and weaken the fiscal revenues of member countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - The oversupply of oil has created conditions for the U.S. to implement stricter sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting major oil producers [3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies - The U.S. has announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil producers, including Rosneft and Lukoil, marking a significant escalation in economic measures against Russia [3]. - Approximately 70% of Russia's oil production and exports for 2024 are already affected by sanctions, with transactions involving Rosneft and Lukoil required to cease by November 21 [4]. - The effectiveness of these sanctions will depend on enforcement strength, reactions from major buyers like India and China, and Russia's ability to circumvent sanctions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Oil Prices - The market had previously perceived an oversupply of oil, with the number of oil tankers rising to pandemic-era levels and Brent crude hovering around the critical support level of $60 [5]. - Following the U.S. sanctions announcement, the market experienced a slight recovery, driven by short covering, as traders began to question the oversupply narrative [5]. - The sanctions aim to disrupt the flow of oil that continues to support Russia's war efforts despite widespread Western embargoes [5]. Group 3: Statements from Officials - The U.S. Treasury announced that the sanctions would increase pressure on Russia's energy sector, weakening its ability to fund its military operations and support its struggling economy [6]. - Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that sanctions would not significantly impact the country's economic well-being, asserting the stability and confidence of Russia's energy sector [6].