Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast, indicating that U.S. crude oil production will begin to decline starting in 2026, earlier than previously expected due to global oil production increases [2][4]. Group 1: Production Forecast - The EIA predicts that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.57 million barrels per day by December 2025, earlier than the previously anticipated peak in April 2026 [4]. - The decline in production is largely attributed to factors related to oil prices, including the economic downturn caused by high tariff policies from the Trump administration and the shift of OPEC+ to increase production instead of cutting capacity [4]. Group 2: Price Projections - Starting in the fall of 2025, the EIA forecasts that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures will fall below $60 per barrel [5]. - The Dallas Federal Reserve's survey indicates that new development costs for U.S. oil require prices around $65 per barrel to be profitable, which has led to a stagnation in new developments [5].

Group 1 - International oil prices remain relatively stable, with WTI crude oil at approximately $65.55 per barrel and Brent crude futures around $67 per barrel [1] - Market focus has shifted from ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts to potential adjustments in US tariff policies and possible easing of sanctions on Iran [1] - A recent interview revealed that US and Chinese delegations reached a phased consensus on trade issues, injecting positive expectations into the market [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the OPEC meeting on July 6 to finalize August production quotas and the US government's decision on the "Liberation Day" tariff plan by July 9 [2] - Analysts indicate that the oil market is at a turning point due to reduced geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy adjustments, leading traders to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach [2]

Market Overview - The recent market volatility has left many investors confused, particularly new traders who often buy high and sell low, leading to significant losses [1] - It is advised that traders should avoid frequent operations and adhere to a strict trading plan to mitigate losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - The latest unemployment claims data from the U.S. showed a decrease of 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a mild slowdown in the labor market [2] - The potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is supporting gold prices, as the dollar struggles to attract strong buying interest [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, despite a recent pullback in prices [3] - Technically, gold has shown a strong support level at 3,365, with potential upward targets at 3,430 and 3,450, while a break above 3,450 could lead to further gains towards 3,500 [4][6] Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant rise, with Brent crude previously increasing by 4.4% to over $76 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. inventory data and diplomatic developments, as the stability of the Hormuz Strait is crucial for oil prices [7] - From a technical perspective, oil prices are in an upward trend, with a focus on testing resistance levels around $75.30, while support is seen at $73.5 to $72.5 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant impact of Israel's large-scale attack on Iran, which has shaken global markets and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][3]. - Following the attack, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points at one point, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell approximately 0.4% [2]. - Oil prices saw substantial volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surging over 10% before retreating more than half of that gain, indicating heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical events [3]. Group 2 - The attack has led to a surge in safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which remains near historical highs, reflecting investor caution amid rising geopolitical risks [5][7]. - Energy and defense stocks have risen, while airline and tourism companies faced declines, showcasing a shift in market sentiment towards sectors perceived as safer during geopolitical turmoil [3]. - The timing of the attack disrupted a previously favorable risk appetite in the market, as recent U.S. inflation indicators had shown improvement and trade negotiations with China were progressing [7]. Group 3 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that the U.S. was aware of the attack beforehand and emphasized the goal of destroying Iran's ballistic missile production capabilities, which currently stands at 300 missiles per month [8][9]. - Former President Trump stated that Iran officials have expressed interest in negotiating a nuclear deal, suggesting that the attack may not preclude diplomatic discussions [10][11]. - Trump also remarked that the attack could be beneficial for the market, as it implies that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons, which he believes would be a positive outcome for market stability [12].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile increase on May 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.83% [2] - The North Star 50 Index reached a new historical high, with a total of 1,615 stocks rising and 3,604 stocks declining [2][3] Stock Performance - Gold stocks saw a collective surge, with notable performers including Lai Shen Tong Ling, which hit the daily limit, and Xiao Cheng Technology, which rose over 10% [3] - Solid-state battery concept stocks exploded, with Jin Long Yu, Guo Xuan High-Tech, and Ling Pai Technology hitting the daily limit [5] - Pharmaceutical stocks remained active, with San Sheng Guo Jian, Shu Tai Shen, and Hai Chen Pharmaceutical also hitting the daily limit [6] Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices surpassed $66 per barrel, while WTI crude oil saw a peak increase of 3.5% before retreating [8] - The oil market has been volatile due to fluctuating news regarding Iran and U.S. nuclear negotiations, with potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities causing price spikes [11][12] - If Israel were to strike, it could disrupt global oil supply, with estimates suggesting that such an action could increase oil prices by approximately $8 per barrel [14]