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复旦发展研究院孙立坚:人民币国际化应走“错位发展”路径,构建自主可控的数字货币体系
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 05:43
Core Insights - The rise of technology is profoundly reshaping the financial landscape, with the integration of technology and finance driving innovation and providing robust support for real economy exploration [1] - The dialogue in the "Tech Finance Talk" series aims to explore the real-world applications and future possibilities of tech finance, focusing on stablecoins, digital currency paths, and the risks behind decentralization [1] Stablecoins and Cross-Border Payments - Stablecoins serve as a bridge for existing fiat currencies to enter digital scenarios, but they cannot bypass existing currency management frameworks, such as capital account convertibility [5] - The decentralized nature of stablecoins may lead to arbitrage opportunities, enhancing the ease of currency exchange despite existing restrictions [5] - The promotion of stablecoins should ideally follow the opening of capital accounts to mitigate challenges to national monetary policies [5] RMB Internationalization - Hong Kong's status as an offshore dollar business center could be compromised if stablecoin-related activities are not permitted, potentially weakening its competitive edge as an international financial hub [6] - The exploration of stablecoin cross-border payment functions is significant for breaking the dollar-dominated international monetary system [6] Cautious Approach to RMB Stablecoin - The current market dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins presents a significant network effect, making it a risky time to introduce a RMB stablecoin [7] - Competing directly with dollar stablecoins could hinder the expansion of RMB's network effect and expose it to external shocks [7] Digital Currency Path for RMB - China's push for digital currency aims to strengthen its monetary sovereignty and payment influence amid global digital currency transitions [8] - To establish the digital RMB as a globally accepted currency, a robust digital economy and financial system must be developed [9] Network Effects and Multi-CBDC Bridge - A "multi-CBDC bridge" mechanism is proposed to facilitate interconnectivity among various digital currencies, breaking the monopoly of a single currency and enhancing transaction efficiency [10] Dollar Stablecoins and Market Dynamics - The demand for dollar stablecoins is driven by their liquidity and efficiency, which supports the dollar's status despite growing concerns over U.S. credit [11][12] - The inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, particularly the "trilemma" of fixed exchange rates, free convertibility, and independent monetary policy, pose risks to their stability [14]