当地时间2025年3月19日，远在中东的土耳其金融市场发生巨震，基准估值暴跌触发熔断；里拉兑美元汇率较前一日收盘价暴跌10%，创下历史新低，和 四年前相比缩水超过80%。与此同时，首都伊斯坦布尔中心的银行外排起长队，当地民众试图将毕生积蓄兑换为美元，躲避这骤然降临的金融灾难。 可能生在中国的人们很难想象，毕生积蓄逐渐沦为废纸是什么样的感觉；但在过去几年，这却是时常发生在很多新兴经济体的沉痛现实。由于种种原因， 这些国家无力维持稳定的法定货币，经不起突发事件的波动，很容易成为牺牲品。 当然，在风口之外，这家公司的基本面表现也足够亮眼。 就在里拉暴跌当天，Binance平台上的加密货币交易量激增，BTC/TRY（里拉）交易量达到93个BTC，为至少一年以来的最高水平；而USDT、USDC等稳 定币的交易额占比同样大幅度上升；此外，当天土耳其跨境交易平台使用稳定币结算的比例也创下新高。 经济学家罗伯特·蒙代尔和马库斯·弗莱明在上个世纪60年代就提出了货币的经典的不可能三角：货币政策独立性、汇率稳定性和资本自由流通。想要追求 其中之二，必然牺牲其中之一。但稳定币的出现，或许打破了这一三元悖论： 由公司发行加密货币，链 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The linkage between exchange rates and interest rates is the result of policy - goal trade - offs under the "Impossible Trinity". When the domestic fundamentals are resilient, policies block the interest - rate parity transmission through foreign - exchange management tools, and exchange rates and interest rates mainly reflect internal equilibrium. When fundamentals are under pressure and there are external shocks, policies allow exchange - rate flexibility, and the interest - rate parity mechanism dominates cross - border capital flows [4]. - The future scope for interest - rate cuts depends not only on the narrowing of the China - US interest - rate spread but also on whether broad - credit policies can stimulate domestic demand and whether trade transformation can strengthen exchange - rate resilience [4][11]. - The core contradiction in the current linkage between interest rates and exchange rates lies in the dynamic balance between external constraints and internal policy space. Policy frameworks need to reshape the transmission path of interest - rate spreads and exchange - rate differentials through tool innovation and expectation management [101]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest and Exchange Rate Correlation - Interest rates and exchange rates represent the internal and external prices of currencies respectively, with a high correlation. The exchange rate has a stronger correlation with long - term interest rates that reflect fundamental expectations and with the interest - rate spread that reflects China - US relative changes [7][19]. - The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates is complex, being affected by common factors and possibly being causal to each other. Under the "Impossible Trinity", policies need to make dynamic trade - offs among exchange - rate stability, capital flow, and monetary - policy independence [7]. 3.2 Linkage between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates under the "Impossible Trinity" 3.2.1 Stages Driven by Common Factors - When external shocks occur and domestic fundamentals are strong, policies prioritize "exchange - rate stability" and "monetary - policy independence" while weakening capital free flow. The ability of domestic fundamentals to "absorb" shocks determines whether exchange rates and interest rates are affected by external factors [8][32]. - Examples include the 2018 - 2019 China - US trade friction period and the 2020 - 2021 global public - health event period. In these periods, China maintained monetary - policy independence, and the correlation between interest - rate spreads and exchange rates decreased [40][44]. 3.2.2 Stages of Mutual Causality - When domestic and overseas monetary - policy cycles diverge and domestic fundamentals are under pressure, policies tolerate exchange - rate fluctuations to enhance monetary - policy autonomy. Capital flows affect exchange rates through the interest - rate parity mechanism, forming a self - reinforcing cycle [51]. - Examples are the period from August 2015 to 2016 and the 2022 - 2024 period. In these periods, the two - way causal relationship between interest - rate spreads and exchange rates was significant, and the explanatory power of the interest - rate parity theory increased [52][56]. 3.3 Application of Exchange - Rate and Interest - Rate Linkage in Bond - Market Investment 3.3.1 Arbitrage Calculation under the Covered Interest - Rate Parity (CIP) Theory - International investors calculate the comprehensive return of the China - US interest - rate spread and hedging costs when allocating RMB bonds. The balance between hedging costs and interest - rate spreads drives short - term bond - allocation preferences [9]. - The CIP theory provides a pricing benchmark for cross - border capital flows. When there are differences in comprehensive returns between domestic and foreign investments, investors will engage in arbitrage until the returns are equal [68][69]. 3.3.2 Impact of Central - Bank Exchange - Rate Stabilization Operations on Foreign Bond Purchases - Central - bank exchange - rate stabilization tools can reset arbitrage costs. For example, the counter - cyclical factor can reduce the forward - premium rate, while offshore - liquidity regulation can increase arbitrage friction costs, and macro - prudential tools can have a structural constraint on capital flows [86][91][92]. - Different types of foreign investors have different responses to central - bank policies. Short - term trading funds are more sensitive to arbitrage - friction costs, while long - term allocation funds may turn to holding medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds when the costs exceed a certain threshold [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook on the Linkage between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The core contradiction in the current linkage between interest rates and exchange rates is the dynamic balance between external constraints and internal policy space. The Fed's policy - turning rhythm and China's growth - stabilization needs are important factors influencing the linkage between interest - rate spreads and exchange rates [101][102]. - Policy frameworks need to reshape the transmission path of interest - rate spreads and exchange - rate differentials through tool innovation and expectation management to achieve a dynamic balance between "self - orientation" and "internal - external equilibrium" [101].

美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...

以下文章来源于真故研究室 ，作者梁湘 真故研究室 . 真问题，更商业 近日全球股市跌跌不休， 这是系统性风险。 文 ｜ 梁湘 编辑 ｜ 龚正 杨梅 来源｜ 真故研究室（ID：zhengulab） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 全球股市还在动荡，特朗普还在加码。 4月7日，特朗普发布推文称，如果中国不在4月8日之前撤回对美发布的34%报复性护关税措施，他将再次追加50%的关税作为回 击。 接下来，国内经济会如何发展，尤其年轻人该如何应对危机？我们对话了中国人民大学经济学院教授、博士生导师、美国哈佛大 学经济学系博士后聂辉华。 聂辉华教授在美求学期间曾师从世界著名经济学家、因开创不完全契约理论（incomplete contract theory）而获得2016年诺贝尔经 济学奖的奥利弗·哈特（Oliver Hart）教授。回国后，聂辉华教授曾获得教育部青年长江学者、国家"万人计划"领军人才等荣誉， 担任过中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院常务副院长，现在是中国人民大学企业与组织研究中心执行主任。 聂辉华教授的核心观点如下： 1、近日全球股市跌跌不休，这是系统性风险，普通人担心也没有用。建议大家多看少动，关键是看 ...