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摩根士丹利每:周全球视野-关税和通胀
摩根· 2025-07-21 14:26
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is becoming evident, with a noticeable increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to high tariff exposure goods [1] - Inflation trends in other regions are more complex, influenced by currency fluctuations, supply chain shifts, and local demand conditions [2] - China plays a crucial role in regional inflation trends, with ongoing domestic deflation and trade uncertainties contributing to downward pressure on inflation in the region [3] Summary by Sections U.S. Inflation and Tariffs - The report indicates that tariffs implemented in the U.S. are beginning to show effects on inflation, with a lag of approximately 3 to 5 months before impacts are reflected in CPI data [1] - High tariff exposure goods are expected to have a greater impact on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) than on CPI [1] Regional Inflation Trends - In Latin America, strong currency performance is leading to lower inflation, with Brazil, Chile, and Colombia experiencing this trend due to currency appreciation and high real interest rates [2] - Japan's inflation is expected to remain stable as the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again this year, influenced by trade uncertainties [2] - South Korea's inflation is similarly constrained by trade uncertainties, despite some resilience in domestic service and food prices [2] China's Role in Regional Inflation - China's ongoing domestic deflation is exerting downward pressure on regional inflation, contrasting with its previous role in maintaining overall inflation levels in the region [3] - The report notes that the strong euro is helping to suppress inflation in Europe, with limited retaliatory tariffs preventing significant inflation increases [3] - The expectation of a slowdown in economic growth is anticipated to strengthen global deflationary pressures, with U.S. inflation expected to rise in the coming quarters [3]
美瑞空头势不可挡!黄金震荡僵局难以打破!其它非美货币走势崎岖?最新一期《Steven趋势方程式》栏目已经更新,点击即可观看>>
news flash· 2025-07-03 11:57
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a stalemate, making it difficult to break the current trend, while the Swiss franc remains strong against the US dollar [1] Group 1 - The bearish trend for the Swiss franc is described as unstoppable, indicating a strong momentum in the currency market [1] - The latest edition of "Steven Trend Equation" has been updated, suggesting ongoing analysis and insights into market trends [1] - Other non-USD currencies are showing erratic movements, reflecting volatility in the foreign exchange market [1]