Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing stagnation in the gold market, questioning whether the market is in a state of dormancy and how long the current deadlock will last [1]

Group 1 - The gold market remains in a state of stagnation, with critical levels being approached but not yet broken [1] - There is speculation about whether bearish positions can advance further tonight [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a researcher named Steven, focusing on the current situation in the gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a stalemate, making it difficult to break the current trend, while the Swiss franc remains strong against the US dollar [1] Group 1 - The bearish trend for the Swiss franc is described as unstoppable, indicating a strong momentum in the currency market [1] - The latest edition of "Steven Trend Equation" has been updated, suggesting ongoing analysis and insights into market trends [1] - Other non-USD currencies are showing erratic movements, reflecting volatility in the foreign exchange market [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate between bulls and bears, indicating a period of volatility may continue [1] - The direction of gold prices during the U.S. trading session remains uncertain, prompting discussions among market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, having been in a trading range for three consecutive days, raising questions about when it will break out of this pattern [1] Group 1 - Gold has been in a trading range for three days, indicating a period of consolidation [1] - The market is closely watching for a potential breakout from this narrow trading range [1]

Group 1 - The current strongest support level for spot gold is at 3285, which coincides with multiple moving averages [1] - Spot gold is experiencing fluctuations and lacks a clear direction as it approaches the US trading session [1] Group 2 - The market is observing a low-level accumulation of positions in gold, indicating a slowdown in the downward trend [2] - The market calibration is influenced by the recent performance of US stocks and the Nvidia earnings report alongside the Federal Reserve minutes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's upward drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it has support on the downside, with prices in a volatile pattern and volatility likely to continue to narrow; silver is in a range - bound pattern. Gold is rated as neutral, and silver is also rated as neutral. The price ranges are 770 - 808 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Increase**: London gold rose 2.3%, and London silver rose 0.46%. Among domestic and foreign futures and spot varieties, Comex gold 2506 rose 2.52%, London gold spot rose 2.65%, Comex silver 2506 rose 2.18%, and London silver spot rose 2.25%. Some domestic varieties declined, such as沪银2506 with a - 0.57% decline [3][4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volumes of沪银2506,沪金2506 decreased, while that of Comex gold 2506 increased. The open interests of沪银2506,沪金2506, Comex silver 2506, and Comex gold 2506 all decreased [4] - **Comex and ETF Open Interest Changes**: Comex silver futures and options non - commercial net long open interest increased by 47,819 hands, SLV silver ETF open interest increased by 5.65 tons. Comex gold futures and options non - commercial net long open interest decreased by 764 hands, and SPDR gold ETF open interest decreased by 6.32 tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai silver inventory increased by 3,135 kilograms, Comex silver inventory increased by 4,602,898 ounces, Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,590 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 2,121,392 ounces [4] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The silver spot - to - futures main contract price difference remained unchanged at - 18 yuan/kilogram, and the gold spot - to - futures main contract price difference increased by 2.55 yuan/gram [4] - **Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes**: The absolute value of the price difference between the December and June contracts of沪银 decreased by 2 yuan/kilogram, and that of沪金 increased by 1.9 yuan/gram [4] - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: The price difference between silver T + D and London silver increased by 29 yuan/kilogram, and the price difference between gold T + D and London gold increased by 3.48 yuan/gram [4] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNH spot) rose 0.40%, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.46%, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.27%, and the British pound against the US dollar rose 0.27% [4] 3.2 Trading Aspects (Price, Price Difference, Inventory, Capital, and Open Interest) - **Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 2.64 US dollars/ounce, and the price difference between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.8 US dollars/ounce. The price difference between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to - 0.163 US dollars/ounce, and the price difference between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.43 US dollars/ounce [8][9][12] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference**: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 3.12 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot price difference was - 18 yuan/kilogram, also at the lower end of the historical range [15][18] - **Inter - month Price Difference**: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.24 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver inter - month price difference was 64 yuan/kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [22][26] - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The total cost of buying TD and selling沪金 for cross - month positive arbitrage was 13.83 yuan/gram; the total cost of buying沪金12 months and selling 6 months was - 8.90 yuan/gram. The total cost of buying TD and selling沪银 for cross - month positive arbitrage was 151.72 yuan/kilogram; the total cost of buying沪银12 months and selling 6 months was - 87.53 yuan/kilogram [29][30][31][32] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold and Silver Spot Deferred Fee Payment Direction**: This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid by shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [33] - **Gold and Silver Inventory and Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.12 million ounces to 39.15 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.3%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 4.06 million ounces to 503.58 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 33.3%. Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1,590 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 3.14 tons to 934 tons [35][38][40] - **CFTC Gold and Silver Non - commercial Open Interest**: This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long open interest in gold declined significantly, while that in silver increased slightly [42] - **ETF Open Interest**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 7.47 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 51.04 tons [46][48] - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 100 last week to 102 [51] - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53] 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58] - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The document provides the rate - cut probabilities of different regions and time points, such as the US, Canada, Europe, Asia - Pacific, and Latin America [74]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current fluctuations in gold prices, particularly around the $3400 mark, and highlights three major pitfalls that investors may encounter while attempting to capitalize on these movements [3][4][5] - It emphasizes that the recent rebound in gold prices, following a drop from $3509 to $3200, may be misleading, as significant capital has already exited the market, indicated by a 30% drop in COMEX gold futures open interest [3][4] - The article points out a decline in central bank gold purchases, particularly noting a significant reduction in China's gold buying and Turkey's selling, which could signal a turning point in the market [4][5] Group 2 - Regulatory signals, such as the doubling of trading fees on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and multiple ETFs halting subscriptions and redemptions, suggest an overheated market, reminiscent of past market corrections [5][6] - The article provides a strategic approach for long-term investors, recommending a phased investment strategy at the current price of $3400, with specific guidelines for increasing positions and setting stop-loss measures [9] - It advises maintaining a cash reserve for unexpected market events and suggests a hedging strategy involving gold stocks and physical gold to mitigate policy risks [9]