Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in commodity prices, domestic demand, external demand, production, and pricing, highlighting the fluctuations in gold, copper, and oil prices, as well as the recovery in housing sales and the impact of tariff adjustments on exports [1][2][4][6]. Domestic Demand - New housing sales are improving, with a narrowing decline in growth rates, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are decreasing. The average selling price of home appliances is rising [2]. - Service consumption has seen a marginal improvement year-on-year, despite a post-holiday decline in demand. Movie box office revenues have decreased, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [2][11]. - The retail of passenger cars is declining, while wholesale sales are increasing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [2]. External Demand - The recent unexpected reduction in China-US tariffs has led to a rebound in direct exports to the US. The current effective tariff rate is 10%, with 24% of tariffs suspended, which may support continued export activities [2][3][12]. Production - Progress in trade negotiations has boosted market sentiment, particularly in the steel sector, where some steel mills have raised factory prices, leading to a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and an increase in steel prices [4][5]. - In the chemical sector, prices of PTA, polyester chips, and POY have significantly rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and maintenance of production facilities [5]. Pricing - Gold prices have retreated due to the reduction in tariffs and improved global risk appetite, with expectations of short-term fluctuations. Long-term support for gold prices remains due to unsustainable US debt and the diminishing dollar system [6]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to improved economic expectations and future demand from European revitalization and post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine [6]. - Oil prices are recovering from previous lows but may face long-term pressure from global energy transitions and potential increases in US oil supply [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent performance of butadiene rubber (BR) futures, which have seen a seven-day consecutive increase, raising questions about whether this trend is driven by trade benefits or underlying supply issues [1] - It also explores the potential for bearish positions to rebound in the current market environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Butadiene rubber futures have experienced a seven-day rally, indicating strong market momentum [1] - The increase in futures prices may suggest favorable trading conditions, but there are concerns about hidden supply risks that could impact future performance [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article raises the question of whether the current bullish trend is sustainable given potential supply constraints [1] - It highlights the need for market participants to consider both trade benefits and supply challenges when evaluating future price movements [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is speculation about the possibility of a counter-offensive from bearish traders, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The article suggests that the market may be at a crossroads, with both bullish and bearish forces at play [1]