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亚洲出口强劲、美国库存却未见增长,这些“抢出口”商品去哪了?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-12 08:34
Core Viewpoint - HSBC's report highlights a significant increase in Asian exports, particularly from China and South Korea, while US inventory growth remains modest, indicating complexities in trade front-loading effects [1][2][4]. Group 1: Asian Exports - Recent data shows that export volumes from China and emerging Asia (excluding China) have reached historical highs, with South Korea's exports in Q2 experiencing a notable quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The report suggests that if US importers are indeed stockpiling goods to avoid higher tariffs, US inventories should have surged significantly, but the actual data does not reflect such a dramatic increase [1][4]. Group 2: US Inventory Dynamics - Although US retail inventories (excluding automobiles) have risen, the increase is relatively modest, only slightly surpassing the peak levels of September 2022, and is significantly lower than the inventory spikes seen during the pandemic [9]. - The US retail inventory-to-sales ratio has remained nearly unchanged in recent months, indicating that retailers are maintaining relatively lean inventory levels [9]. Group 3: Possible Explanations for Inventory Trends - HSBC provides three potential explanations for the observed inventory trends: data lag, bonded warehouse storage, or unexpectedly strong US end-demand [13]. - Data lag suggests that the increase in imports in April may have been followed by a significant drop in May, possibly in response to tariff announcements [13]. - Bonded warehouse storage allows US importers to store goods without paying tariffs for up to five years, which may explain the increase in imports without a corresponding rise in retail inventory [13]. - The report indicates that while there is evidence of front-loading, overall US inventory has not excessively inflated, suggesting stronger-than-expected end-demand [17]. Group 4: Future Implications - HSBC warns that high tariffs will ultimately have a significant impact on Asian exports, despite the current resilience in demand and inventory levels [1][17].
巴克莱:料新兴市场信贷前景保持强劲 且趋势有望持续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 03:07
Group 1 - The Barclays research team believes that emerging markets are impacted by US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdown, but these effects are offset by rising commodity export prices and renewed investor interest in emerging market assets for diversification [1] - The outlook for local and credit markets in emerging markets is expected to remain strong, with trends likely to continue [1] - The weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of the year is not seen as a negative factor for emerging market economies, and any trend towards diversifying away from dollar assets could further weaken the dollar and benefit emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is favorable for emerging market currencies due to the broad weakening of the US dollar and decreased market volatility, which particularly benefits arbitrage trading [2] - Investor enthusiasm for emerging market credit appears low, with recent inflows into emerging market bond funds concentrated in local currency funds, despite emerging market sovereign credit spreads showing resilience [2] - Emerging market sovereign credit spreads are only about 15 basis points above their lowest levels in years, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Despite the announcement of tariffs by the US in early April, emerging Asian markets have shown relatively robust export performance, attributed to trade front-loading effects, although this may vary by economy [3] - Core inflation in the region is showing signs of rising, while energy inflation remains low; however, geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices and sustained inflation [3] - The average CPI inflation forecast for the top ten emerging Asian economies for 2025 has decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2024, indicating a potential for more cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation data [3]