7月12日，据追风交易台消息，汇丰银行在最新报告中指出，近期数据显示，中国亚洲其他地区的出口量均创下历史新高，韩国二季度出口量环比增长也 表现强劲。然而，这一现象引发了一个谜题： 美国进口商如果确实在大规模囤货以规避更高关税，其库存理应大幅攀升，但实际数据并未显示如此明显的增长。 汇丰首席亚洲经济学家Frederic Neumann指出，虽然美国零售库存有所上升，但仅回到了2022年9月的峰值水平，与疫情期间的库存激增相比相形见绌。这 一反差可能有三种解释：数据滞后、保税仓库存储，或者美国终端需求超预期强劲。 报告称，如果是后者，意味着亚洲出口商可能避免此前市场担心的"前置出货"反噬效应。不过汇丰警告，高额关税最终仍将对亚洲出口造成重大冲击。 亚洲出口量创历史新高，美国库存仅温和增长 汇丰数据显示，中国大陆和新兴亚洲（除中国外）的出口量指数均达到历史高位。其中，韩国二季度出口量环比增长显著加速。 汇丰研究显示，尽管亚洲出口量大幅激增，但美国库存增长却相对有限，暴露出贸易前置效应的复杂性。 美国制造业进口增长在过去几个月大幅飙升，而欧洲进口则出现相反走势。这些进口商品的部分确实进入了美国零售商的仓库，推动零售库 ...

Group 1 - The Barclays research team believes that emerging markets are impacted by US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdown, but these effects are offset by rising commodity export prices and renewed investor interest in emerging market assets for diversification [1] - The outlook for local and credit markets in emerging markets is expected to remain strong, with trends likely to continue [1] - The weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of the year is not seen as a negative factor for emerging market economies, and any trend towards diversifying away from dollar assets could further weaken the dollar and benefit emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is favorable for emerging market currencies due to the broad weakening of the US dollar and decreased market volatility, which particularly benefits arbitrage trading [2] - Investor enthusiasm for emerging market credit appears low, with recent inflows into emerging market bond funds concentrated in local currency funds, despite emerging market sovereign credit spreads showing resilience [2] - Emerging market sovereign credit spreads are only about 15 basis points above their lowest levels in years, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Despite the announcement of tariffs by the US in early April, emerging Asian markets have shown relatively robust export performance, attributed to trade front-loading effects, although this may vary by economy [3] - Core inflation in the region is showing signs of rising, while energy inflation remains low; however, geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices and sustained inflation [3] - The average CPI inflation forecast for the top ten emerging Asian economies for 2025 has decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2024, indicating a potential for more cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation data [3]