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百利好晚盘分析:宽松预期仍在 金价延续上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 10:58
Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. has announced a one-year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against Chinese shipbuilding, while China has suspended special port fees for U.S. ships for the same duration, indicating a cooling global trade sentiment [1] - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, which has improved market risk sentiment and may lead to increased U.S. debt issuance and further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve's easing expectations will keep gold prices in a strong upward trend, with a focus on the support level around $4100 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in December, which may support oil prices as the dollar index remains below 100 [3] - Russian oil exports have significantly decreased from 1.41 million barrels per day to 810,000 barrels per day, with exports to India averaging 1.19 million barrels per day, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for oil prices [3] - Global economic uncertainties are decreasing due to trade agreements between the U.S. and other economies, suggesting a potential recovery in oil demand [3] Group 3: Dollar Index - There are internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy, with some supporting rate cuts while others urge caution [4] - Current probabilities indicate a 64.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting continued monetary easing is likely [4] - Recent price action shows a weak trend, but there are signs of potential stabilization near the 20-day moving average, with a focus on the support level around 99.32 [4] Group 4: Copper Market - Recent price action in copper has shown a downward adjustment, but the market has been oscillating above the 62-day moving average, indicating potential stabilization and a bullish outlook [6] - The market has regained the 20-day moving average, suggesting further upward movement is possible, with a focus on the support level around $4.97 [6] Group 5: Market Overview - President Trump has indicated a potential reduction in tariffs on India, signaling progress towards a trade agreement [7] - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on the temporary funding bill, which is crucial for ending the government shutdown [7] - The U.S. has suspended the 301 investigation measures against Chinese shipbuilding for one year, including the suspension of port fees [7]