Core Insights - As of October 6, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 1013.17 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 1.71 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a trend of slight reduction in holdings despite a significant rise in gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On October 6, spot gold prices surged, reaching a record high of $3969.94 per ounce and closing near this level at $3960.85 per ounce, marking an increase of $74.38 or 1.91% [6]. - The rise in gold prices occurred despite a strengthening U.S. dollar and a rebound in global stock market risk appetite, suggesting strong buying interest in gold [6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened concerns about the labor market, with no signs of resolution from either Republican or Democratic lawmakers [6]. - Delays in economic data releases have added uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with market expectations fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut later this month and a 94% probability of a rate cut in December [6]. Group 3: Global Political Climate - Political instability in Europe, particularly in France, where Prime Minister Leclerc resigned shortly after forming a new cabinet, has further exacerbated market risk aversion [7]. - In Japan, the election of a new leader in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to more accommodative monetary policies, increasing fiscal spending, and reducing the urgency for interest rate hikes [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The bullish structure of gold remains intact, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating an overbought condition but still showing an upward trend as long as it stays within the 70-80 range [7]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3970 (historical high) and $4000 (psychological level), while initial support is at $3900, with further levels at $3872, $3850, and $3819 [8].

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/30 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货上涨：多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格再次持续走高，主力合约收盘10939元/千克，9月29日单日涨幅达3.92%%，创下阶段性新 高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 宏观层面，美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点，市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息，显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨，连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增，而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出，扩产受限加剧短缺。 金信期货日刊 不过需警惕短期风险，当前金银比仍高于历史均值，且白银市场规模较小，资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看，降息周期延续与绿色 ...

广发期货研报认为，美联储宽松预期升温、海外实物需求增加叠加ETF资金流入惯性持续提振白银价 格，尽管国内反内卷政策对商品价格的影响反复，工业基本面上白银需求相对偏弱，但美国对白银进口 的潜在关税政策仍在加强多头预期。 金源期货研报称，在通胀符合预期、美联储维持宽松预期以及关税加征的背景下，黄金有望继续保持强 劲走势。白银依然处于补涨驱动的行情之中。但国内长假将至，需警惕假期间外盘价格出现剧烈波动的 风险。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 严晓菲）9月29日日间盘，国内商品期货主力合约多数收跌。其中，沪银、 沪金主力合约在现货黄金、白银创新高的背景下强势走高。 截至15:00收盘，沪银涨近4%，沪金、苹果涨超1%，碳酸锂、原油、花生等微涨。跌幅方面，焦煤、工 业硅、焦炭跌超4%，集运指数（欧线）、纸浆跌超3%，生猪、红枣、玻璃等跌超2%，纯碱、铁矿石、 菜籽等跌超1%，锰硅、不锈钢、沪镍等微跌。 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/29 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货上涨：多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格持续走高，主力合约收盘10632元/千克，9月26日单日涨幅达2.27%，成交量近百万手，创 下阶段性新高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 宏观层面，美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点，市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息，显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨，连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增，而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出，扩产受限加剧短缺。 不过需警惕短期风险，当前金银比仍高于历史均值，且白银市场规模较小，资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看，降息周期 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the restart of the easing cycle [2] - The Fed's assessment of the labor market shifted from "labor market remains solid" to "employment growth is slowing," indicating a cautious approach to risk management in the context of the rate cut [2] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.8%, while maintaining the inflation level for 2025 and slightly increasing the inflation forecast for 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Fed expressed concerns about inflation, particularly due to potential impacts from the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could lead to a scenario of "stagflation" if inflation rises uncontrollably [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, such as a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, the Fed may consider aggressive measures, including a potential 50 basis point rate cut [3] - If the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the Fed may adopt a more aggressive easing approach, potentially exceeding the projected one rate cut in 2026, influenced by the upcoming midterm elections [3] Group 3 - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Fed is a key factor driving gold prices higher, alongside concerns about the credibility of the U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Gaza situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market uncertainty and supporting gold prices [4] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with the potential to challenge the $3700 mark, indicating that the bull market for gold is not yet over [4]

【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格维持震荡偏强格局，其中黄金再刷新高，盘中上摸3700，因美指大幅下跌，同时美债收益率 亦回落。周边欧美股普跌，VIX指数走高。接下来周四凌晨即将召开美联储9月FOMC会议，投资者需关注包 括降息与缩表、点阵图与经济预测表、鲍威尔讲话等信息。此外，美国对部分贵金属关税政策的不确定性政 策仍需持续关注。目前市场焦点在美联储宽松预期、美联储人事调整和独立性问题以及贵金属关税政策上。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3727.5美元/盎司，+0.23%；美白银2512合约收报于42.88美元/盎 司，-0.19%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约 收842.08元/克，+1.14%；SHFE白银2510合约收10108元/千克， +0.8%。数据方面，美国8月零售销售环比增0.6%，连续三个月超预期增长，实际零售销售连续11个月增 长。数据后贵金属略有调整。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期略有增强，目前交易员预期美联储年内大概率降息三次，9月大概率降息25BP。据CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为0%，降息25个基点的概率为96.1%，降息50个基点的 概率 ...

期交易员预计，到年底美联储将累计降息三次，首次降息大概率在美东时间周三的会议上落地。此前市场仅预计年底前降息一 次，而5月美国非农就业新增人数较预期减少20%，甚至让市场短暂押注本周降息幅度可能扩大至50个基点，后因通胀数据企 稳才回落至25个基点。 周一美国国债相对其他全球主权债的收益率优势，已从1月的200多个基点收窄至120个基点。 2025年，市场对美联储重启降息周期的预期持续升温，此前因美国赤字占GDP比例持续高于6%，不少分析师担忧债务偿付压 力，甚至建议减持美债，而如今预期转向直接推动美国国债在全球主要主权债券市场中脱颖而出，跃居收益榜首。 据彭博指数统计，以本币计价的2025年美国国债回报率达到5.8%，在全球15大债券市场中位列第一。不过尽管美国国债相对 全球同类债券的额外收益率仍保持显著优势，但已降至三年低点。 2025年美元指数较年初回调约3%，以美元计价的投资者在配置海外主权债时，除债券本身收益外，还能获得汇率转换带来的 额外收益，这使得海外资产的表面回报高于美国国债。但如果剔除汇率干扰，仅聚焦债券本身表现便会发现，在多重利空冲击 下，其他主要市场主权债均显逊色。 因美元下跌，意大利国 ...

瑞银集团大幅上调其金价预测，认为受美联储宽松预期、美元走弱及地缘政治风险的共同作用下，黄金的牛市行情远未结束。 瑞银已将其2025年底的金价目标从原先的水平上调300美元，至每盎司3800美元。同时，该行还将2026年年中的金价预测上调200美元，至每盎司 3900美元。 近期，黄金市场已经表现出强劲的上涨势头，在本周二已创下每盎司3673.95美元的历史新高，年内累计涨幅超过39%。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨 0.3%至3644美元/盎司。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 | 1m | 5m | 15m | | 30m | 1H | 4H | 1D | 1W | 1M | | | | N | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3655.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 365 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the market adjusted last week, the core drivers of the upward trend, such as the repair of market expectations, the improvement of risk appetite, and the increase in stock market allocation willingness brought about by long - term capital market reforms, have not changed substantially, so the market is unlikely to experience a trend - like callback [2] - The news of the former chairman of the CSRC being investigated indicates that the improvement of the capital market system is still ongoing, and the lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls have further increased the expectation of Fed easing, which is conducive to sentiment repair [2] - The policy aims to anchor the market value and prevent the breeding of financial risks under disorderly speculation. Before the improvement of corporate earnings becomes more obvious, it is more difficult to boost valuations. The market is more likely to fluctuate in a moderately strong way, and the previous unilateral bull - market trend is less likely [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the market experienced its first significant shock since the current upward trend, with most major indexes falling except for the ChiNext Index. In terms of sectors, National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Non - Banking Finance led the decline, with National Defense and Military Industry falling by over 10%; Power Equipment, Comprehensive, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains [1] - The direct trigger for the market decline may be the foreign media reports about regulatory risk - prevention statements. The adjustment of the market under the previous sentiment - driven and valuation - boosting market was mainly affected by internal and external factors, with internal factors being the main ones, such as the weakening of pro - growth policies and strengthened supervision [1] - Overseas, the breakthrough of precious metals and the rise of bond yields last week increased overseas risk expectations, which also disturbed the performance of domestic indexes [1] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt the idea of going long after a pullback. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2509 main contract is between 4323 and 4546 points; the IH2509 main contract is between 2867 and 3000 points; the IC2509 main contract is between 6692 and 7140 points; the IM2509 main contract is between 6973 and 7443 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Mainly stay on the sidelines [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32%, the S&P 500 rose 0.33%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.14%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.23%, Germany's DAX fell 1.28%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.38%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% and the Hang Seng Index rose 1.36% [8] - **Domestic Main Indexes**: Most domestic main indexes fell last week, with only the ChiNext Index rising [1][8] Index Futures Market Review - **Contract Performance**: Last week, the IM main contract of index futures had the largest decline, and the IC main contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of index futures declined [11] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratios**: The report also presented the basis (futures - spot) trends of index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratios of index futures main contracts [16] Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 29, the TTM P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.54 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 14.12 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.9 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 33.72 times, and the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.35 times [17][18] Market Capital Flow Review - The report presented charts of the margin trading balance in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline of capital interest rates last week, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank last week [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing and the weakening of domestic risk appetite, the price of gold has increased significantly, and the price of silver has fluctuated at a high level. As the September Fed meeting approaches and the dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, the price of gold is strong, and the price of silver is still supported by the price of gold [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The high expectation of Fed easing led to a significant rise in the price of gold. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes all closed down. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 3.50 basis points to 4.260%. The US dollar index rose 0.66% to 98.32, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1385. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The high expectation of Fed easing caused the price of silver to fluctuate at a high level. Other market indicators were similar to those of gold, and COMEX silver futures closed flat at $41.73 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 447 kilograms to 40191 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8001 kilograms to 1215228 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events need to be focused on, including South Korea's Q2 GDP, Vietnam's August manufacturing PMI, Japan's August service and composite PMI final value, China's August S&P service and composite PMI, etc. Also, speeches by central bank officials such as the European Central Bank President Lagarde and the US St. Louis Fed President Musalem, as well as the Fed's economic beige book and US July JOLTS job openings, are important [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold** - **Likely positive factors**: Global turmoil with lingering risk - aversion sentiment; significant shadow Fed with rising expectation of interest rate cuts; tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation; impact of tariff concerns [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Cessation of interest rate cuts and improved economic expectations; European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations with the US standing out again; deterioration of risk appetite; end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver** - **Likely positive factors**: Similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the price of silver [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Similar to those of gold [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the price of silver, and the price of silver is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.86% to 243,530 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions increased by 4.39% to 70,476, and the net positions increased by 6.47% to 173,054 [31]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.57% to 373,101 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions decreased by 1.59% to 274,760, and the net positions increased by 11.59% to 98,341 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The gold ETF positions continued to increase, and the silver ETF positions increased slightly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase with renewed tariff concerns [39][41].