格隆汇1月28日｜当前黄金、白银价格已触及历史高点，即便进口量保持不变，进口额也可能大幅增 长，这会加剧市场对贸易逆差扩大、卢比进一步贬值的担忧——目前卢比对美元汇率已出现大幅下跌。 贸易和行业官员表示，出于上述担忧，印度政府可能在未来几周上调黄金、白银进口关税。 2012年至 2013年，为稳定当时快速贬值的卢比，印度政府曾大幅提高黄金进口关税。如今卢比汇率再度走弱，交 易商猜测，印度政府或在未来几周重启关税上调政策，扭转2024年的关税下调举措。彼时，为遏制走私 行为，印度将黄金、白银进口关税均从15%下调至6%。 市场已提前消化关税可能上调的预期，目前印 度国内黄金、白银交易价格较国际基准价已出现溢价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling to revoke tariffs may lead to a surge in imports by American companies, potentially widening the trade deficit in the coming months [1] Group 1: Court Ruling and Implications - The court's decision to revoke tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could result in American companies importing goods in large quantities over the next two months [1] - The Trump administration has quickly appealed the ruling, indicating that the case may be taken to the Federal Circuit Court and then to the Supreme Court [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to last for 4 to 8 weeks as the case progresses through the appeals process [1] Group 2: Impact on Trade Deficit - Analysts predict that the influx of imports will significantly increase the U.S. trade deficit for the first half of the year [1]

Macro News - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the JOLTS job openings for March were 7.192 million, significantly below the expected 7.5 million, marking the lowest level since September of the previous year, indicating a weakening labor demand amid increasing economic uncertainty [3] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April unexpectedly dropped to 86, the lowest since May 2020 [3] - Goldman Sachs noted that the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened more than expected in March, with both imports and exports increasing, primarily driven by a rise in consumer goods imports, reflecting a "front-running" of imports before tariff hikes [3] Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently down, with the latest price at 782.14 CNY per gram, a decrease of 0.65%, having reached a high of 788.34 CNY and a low of 781.14 CNY today [4] - The short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 845-850 CNY, while support levels are noted between 760-765 CNY [4]