Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - On February 25, platinum and palladium prices rose overall. The PT2606 contract closed up 7.13% to 58 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 4.59% to 45.95 yuan/gram. [6] - Macroeconomic factors such as tariff policy uncertainty and Middle - East geopolitical tensions support the precious metals market. [6] - In the short - term, new tariff policies on key minerals may affect the short - term upward trend of the market. In the long - term, the global platinum supply - demand gap persists, and the global palladium supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve, providing long - term support for platinum and palladium. [6] - In the short - term, platinum and palladium are expected to remain relatively strong but with high volatility. It is recommended that investors follow the trend and mainly go long at low prices. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices - Platinum: The platinum futures main contract closing price was 586 yuan/gram, up 6.19% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 600 yuan/gram; the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 yuan/gram, up 207.69%. [4] - Palladium: The palladium futures main contract closing price was 457.95 yuan/gram, up 4.45%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was 453.5 yuan/gram, up 4.25%; the basis (spot - futures) was - 4.45 yuan/gram, up 28.99%. [4] International Prices - London spot platinum was 2278.1 dollars/ounce, up 5.65%; London spot palladium was 1805.984 dollars/ounce, up 2.97%. [4] - NYMEX platinum was 2287.6 dollars/ounce, up 5.99%; NYMEX palladium was 1837 dollars/ounce, up 3.70%. [4] Internal - External 15 - point Spread - The dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 6.9321, down 0.13%. [4] - The spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum was 12.27 yuan/gram, up 52.11%; the spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum was 9.88 yuan/gram, up 31.06%. [4] Ratios and Inventory - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2796, an increase of 0.0210. The ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2294, an increase of 0.0320. [5] - NYMEX platinum inventory was 186,269 troy ounces, with a change of 0.00%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 578,195 troy ounces, with a change of 0.00%. [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position was 69,291, up 0.33%; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 12,347, up 2.18%. [5] - NYMEX total palladium position was 16,538, down 1.52%; non - commercial net long position of palladium was 513, down 4.09%. [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose large-scale tariffs, leading President Trump to invoke other legal provisions to impose a 15% tariff on imports, raising concerns from the UK and Australia about increased export costs and weakened competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Trade Relations - The new tariffs will increase the tariff rate on UK goods exported to the U.S. from 10% to 15%, excluding items covered by the trade agreement reached last year [1]. - Australian products, which previously benefited from a free trade agreement eliminating most tariffs, may now face higher tariffs due to the new U.S. measures [1][2]. Group 2: Reactions from Officials - UK Chamber of Commerce's trade policy director expressed disappointment, estimating that the increased tariffs will raise the cost of UK exports to the U.S. by £2 to £3 billion (approximately $2.7 to $4.1 billion) [1]. - Australian officials, including the Trade and Tourism Minister, expressed disappointment and urged the U.S. to abandon the new tariffs, emphasizing the need for a rules-based trading order [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies could have lasting impacts on international trade and add downward pressure to global economic recovery amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff policy changes, triggered by a Supreme Court ruling, reflect a significant shift in global trade dynamics, moving away from established norms and creating uncertainty in international trade relationships [2][9]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale tariff policy implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global import tariff for 150 days, which was later increased to 15% [1][8]. - The U.S. government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries under the guise of "national security," which may include large batteries, iron castings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and telecommunications equipment [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on International Relations - The new tariff measures have significantly strained relationships with traditional allies such as the EU, Japan, and the UK, as these countries face increased average tariff rates due to the new 15% tariffs being added on top of existing agreements [4][10]. - The European Parliament has paused the approval of trade agreements with the U.S. until there is legal clarity regarding the new tariffs [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has led to a surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $5,200, while U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with major indices dropping over 1% [6][7]. - The market is currently characterized by a "gold up, stocks down, dollar weak" trend, indicating investor fear of policy unpredictability rather than the tax rates themselves [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to enter a prolonged phase of legal and legislative battles, with the current 15% tariff set to expire on July 24, 2026, unless extended by Congress [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the U.S. may shift towards more targeted tariffs under the Section 301 and Section 232 provisions, focusing on specific industries and countries, which could lead to a more institutionalized and long-term tariff framework [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 15% tariff on imports has raised concerns in the UK and Australia, as it is expected to increase export costs and weaken competitiveness, further exacerbating global trade uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on UK and Australia - The tariff on UK goods exported to the U.S. will rise from 10% to 15%, potentially increasing tariff costs by £2 to £3 billion (approximately $2.7 to $4.1 billion) [1]. - Australian products, which previously benefited from a free trade agreement eliminating most tariffs, may now face higher tariffs, impacting their competitiveness in the U.S. market [1][2]. - UK businesses expressed disappointment, emphasizing that higher tariffs are detrimental to trade and could negatively affect U.S. consumers and businesses, as well as global economic growth [1]. Group 2: Reactions from Officials - UK Chamber of Commerce's trade policy director highlighted the need for a clearer and more stable policy environment, stating that increased tariffs are not a solution [1]. - Australian officials, including the Trade and Tourism Minister, have urged the U.S. to abandon the new tariffs and adhere to the 2005 free trade agreement [2]. - Concerns were raised about the erosion of profit margins for UK companies and the added pressure on exporters in an already fragmented and unpredictable global trade environment [2]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies could have lasting effects on international trade and add downward pressure to global economic recovery amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [2].

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, with a focus on the resumption of operations post-holiday [18] - During the holiday, LME copper inventory increased by approximately 30,000 tons to 240,000 tons, while COMEX copper inventory rose by 800 tons to 544,600 tons [18] - The domestic processing enterprises' operating rate significantly declined before the holiday, and there is anticipation for recovery post-holiday, which may support copper prices [18] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical risks, impacting market sentiment [19] - Nickel spot transactions are sluggish, while demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, leading to increased prices for Philippine ore [19] - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak sentiment, with increased social inventory [19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Pre-holiday maintenance of alumina production has led to a noticeable decline in operational capacity, estimated to drop to around 93.5 million tons [21] - Despite a historical high in social inventory, the dynamic supply-demand balance has marginally improved, limiting the downside for alumina prices [21] - The operational range for alumina contracts is projected between 2,800 and 3,000 yuan/ton, with a short-term bullish outlook [22] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices experienced a slight increase during the holiday, supported by supply-side disruptions and a generally positive macroeconomic sentiment [24] - There is an expectation of a slight increase in processing fees in February, while smelters are reducing production, indicating potential support for prices [24] - The operational range for zinc contracts is anticipated to be between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan/ton [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices saw a slight decline during the holiday, with tight supply conditions for lead concentrate persisting [25] - The recycling sector is facing pressure, leading to reduced production among smelters [25] - The operational range for lead contracts is projected between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan/ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals showed strong performance during the holiday, driven by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [27] - The market is expected to experience volatility, with gold long positions recommended for holding, while silver, platinum, and palladium should be observed [27] - The operational ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts are specified, indicating potential trading strategies [27]

Core Viewpoint - India has postponed its planned trade delegation to Washington due to uncertainty following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn tariffs imposed by former President Trump [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The postponement of the trade delegation was made after consultations between officials from both countries, with no new date set for the visit [1] - The decision to delay is primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies following the court ruling on February 20 [1] - Prior to this, the U.S. and India had reached an agreement framework where the U.S. would reduce punitive tariffs of 25% on certain Indian exports related to oil purchases from Russia [1] Group 2: Tariff Changes - On February 21, Trump announced a temporary 15% tariff on all goods imported from all countries, which is the maximum rate allowed by law [1] - The Indian Trade Ministry is currently assessing the implications of the court ruling and subsequent U.S. statements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs has injected significant policy uncertainty, leading to a decline in the dollar and increased risk premiums for U.S. assets, while global market volatility remains high [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The South Korean Seoul Composite Index opened up by 1.6%, while the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.4% and the dollar index decreased by 0.2% [1]. - Asian stock indices rose by 0.5%, primarily driven by gains in major technology stocks [1]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.7% last Friday, marking its best weekly performance since January 9, as optimism from the tariff ruling offset concerns over escalating tensions with Iran [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly decreased to 4.08% amid mixed economic growth and inflation data, reflecting market uncertainty regarding potential budget shortfalls [7]. - Gold prices rose to $5,170 per ounce, increasing by 1.3%, while silver prices reached $87.11 per ounce, up nearly 3% [6]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that the comprehensive decline of the dollar may reflect new policy uncertainty stemming from the Supreme Court ruling, which could negatively impact investor sentiment and business activities [2]. - AT Global Markets' chief market analyst expressed that the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's next actions overshadows any positive factors from potential tariff reductions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs and the potential acquisition of Greenland have escalated uncertainty in the economy and job market, raising fears of a trade war between the U.S. and Europe [2][9]. Economic Impact - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy has significantly affected business investment and hiring, contributing to a rise in the unemployment rate [4]. - Economists predict that if tariffs are implemented as proposed, U.S. economic growth could decline by an entire percentage point next year, with GDP growth estimated to drop from 2.8% to 2.3% in 2026 [9][11]. - The potential for tariffs to disrupt global supply chains and increase import costs could lead to inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's management of interest rates [5]. Business Response - Businesses are delaying expansion and hiring plans due to uncertainty about future tariff rates, which affects their supply chain management and cost assessments [6]. - The aggressive rhetoric from Trump may provoke a stronger response from European leaders compared to previous negotiations, indicating a shift in the trade dynamics [7][8]. Market Reaction - Financial markets reacted negatively to the potential for a trade war, with declines in stock prices, the dollar, and bonds as investors processed the implications of the proposed tariffs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the delay in the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case, highlighting market concerns over policy uncertainty and the potential implications for the administration and the economy [3][6]. Group 1: Supreme Court Delays and Market Reactions - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the tariff case, with expectations for a decision possibly on January 21 or 22 [3]. - The delay has led to declines in some consumer stocks, reflecting market anxiety regarding the uncertainty of the ruling [3]. - Analysts suggest that the longer the ruling is delayed, the more favorable it may be for the Trump administration, with Morgan Stanley indicating that each week of delay increases the likelihood of a favorable outcome for the administration [6][8]. Group 2: Legal and Economic Implications - The Trump administration implemented tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without congressional approval, raising questions about the legality of these actions [5]. - The potential refund amount related to the tariffs is estimated at $135 billion, which could have significant financial implications if the Supreme Court rules against the administration [7]. - Despite the potential for refunds, analysts believe that the actual amount refunded may be lower due to companies' reluctance to pursue refunds that could anger the administration [10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The article notes that tariff revenues have increased by $206 billion over the past eight months, but this is not solely from IEEPA tariffs, with estimates suggesting around $130 billion from these specific tariffs [10]. - The current rate of tariff revenue generation is approximately $30.4 billion per month, leading to an annualized revenue of $364.5 billion, although this may decline as companies seek ways to avoid tariffs [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate's decline in December exceeded market expectations, leading to a drop in U.S. Treasury prices and a rise in yields across various maturities, with the highest increase around 3 basis points [1] - Despite the short-term cooling of rate cut expectations, bond traders maintain a forecast of two rate cuts in 2026, with the first potentially occurring around mid-year [1][2] - The December employment data is viewed as a crucial indicator for assessing trends in the U.S. labor market, especially following a six-week government shutdown that delayed labor reports [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment suggests that future rate cuts will depend on the performance of the labor market in the coming months, with some Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation exceeding policy targets, which may limit the pace of further easing [2] - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a cumulative increase of over 6% last year, marking its best annual performance since 2020, primarily driven by expectations of a cooling labor market [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has emerged as another focal point for the bond market, with potential legal rulings on the legitimacy of tariffs that have generated significant revenue for the U.S. government [2][3]