以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 1/7 一个数学家提出的股票问题 每当有人问我应该集中持仓还是分散投资时，我都会让他们做一道简单的算术题，我认为，把投资的过程量化，更容易理解钱是如何赚到或亏掉 的。 这道题收录在数学家约翰·保罗士写的《一个数学家玩转股票市场》一书中：如果给你提供一些股票，这些股票每周有一半可能性上涨80%，一半 可能性下跌60%，你觉得这些股票能不能投资？ 你一定会想，上涨赚8万，下跌亏6万，而且概率对半，这事当然可以干！ 没错，你这么算就是所谓"正期望值"，那么，给你10万块本金，10周的时间，你怎么投资呢？ 你想了一想说，既然赔率这么明确了，索性简单点，一把梭，每周全仓买一个股票，十周下来，赚亏的次数应该差不多，收益就出来了。 好的，就按你说的投资，10万元每周全仓持有一支，10周后，假设其中5周上涨80%，5周下跌60%，你可以得到多少钱？ 计算过程很简单：1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that "fixed income +" products do not necessarily have larger drawdowns compared to pure bond products, highlighting the importance of asset allocation and risk management in achieving long-term returns above average fixed income yields [2][3]. Group 1: Product Performance - The Zhongtai Shuangli Bond A share has achieved a net value growth rate of 9.97% since its establishment on September 27, 2022, outperforming the benchmark yield of 5.93% [3]. - The maximum drawdown for the A share of Zhongtai Shuangli Bond is 0.66%, which is significantly better than the maximum drawdowns of the mixed bond secondary index (4.25%), pure bond fund index (1.31%), and short-term bond fund index (0.89%) [3]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategy - The company employs a dynamic management approach for drawdown control, where the underlying fixed income provides a safety cushion, and risk exposure is adjusted based on risk budget assessments [5]. - The strategy includes preemptive interventions, allowing for some tolerance during initial drawdowns, but increasing the weight of risk evaluation once thresholds are triggered [5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy focuses on increasing positions only when market conditions are favorable and maintaining low positions when opportunities are unclear, often keeping high elastic positions at very low levels (0% or 1%) [5][6]. - The company prioritizes protecting clients' risk-return objectives, emphasizing a disciplined approach to investment that considers potential losses before gains [6]. Group 4: New Product Offering - The Zhongtai Shuangxin Six-Month Holding Bond is currently being issued, designed with a six-month holding period to reduce daily redemption impacts and stabilize fund size, allowing for a more focused execution of medium to long-term investment strategies [6].