Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. military action in the Middle East, specifically targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, will not escalate tensions but rather help to bring the ongoing chaos to a quicker resolution [1][2] - The U.S. intervention is seen as a significant negative factor, suggesting that after exhausting their options, both sides will engage in minor skirmishes rather than full-scale conflict [1][2] - Both the U.S. and Israel are currently exhibiting restraint, with the U.S. conducting targeted strikes while avoiding a broader military engagement, indicating a lack of desire for extensive conflict [1][2] Group 2 - Iran's responses have been limited and lack military strength to confront the U.S. and Israel effectively, suggesting that any aggressive actions will likely be symbolic rather than substantial [2][3] - The likelihood of Iran launching a significant attack on U.S. forces is considered low, as their military capabilities are insufficient to escalate the situation further [3][4] - The capital markets reflect this sentiment, with gold prices initially spiking but then declining, indicating that investors are not overly concerned about the conflict escalating [3][4] Group 3 - The performance of the A-share market also mirrors this sentiment, showing resilience despite the geopolitical tensions, which suggests that the market had already priced in the potential for conflict [4][5] - Oil prices did not surge as expected following the U.S. actions, indicating that market participants are not reacting as dramatically to the news as previously anticipated [4][5] - Future movements in oil and gold prices will depend on Iran's actions, but the probability of significant escalation is deemed low, making it risky to invest based on potential short-term spikes [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities reports that Huijin's holdings in ETFs have never shown a net decrease, countering market rumors about potential selling pressure after market rallies [1] Group 1 - Since April 2025, Huijin has actively increased its ETF holdings, effectively stabilizing market expectations and boosting investor confidence [1] - There are rumors suggesting that Huijin typically sells after market rallies, but these speculations are unfounded according to factual data [1] - The analysis of public fund quarterly reports from Q4 2023 to Q1 2025 shows that Huijin's ETF holdings have consistently increased, with a total net inflow of approximately 4.5 billion yuan across four CSI 300 ETFs in Q1 2025 [1]