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沈建光:中国投资并没有失速
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-23 08:56
沈建光、樊磊(沈建光系京东集团首席经济学家,中国首席经济学家论坛理事) 中国固定资产投资增速下滑引发广泛关切。 那么,如何观察近期中国固定资产投资增速和资本形成增速存在的差异 文 | 沈建光 樊磊 今年三季度以来,国家统计局公布的固定资产投资(FAI)增速下滑,10月累计同比增速甚至下降到了-1.7%,引发关于"中国投资失速"的担忧。 但笔者从粗钢、水泥产量等实物量的数据以及工业产出、物价等相关指标来看,中国投资增长在三季度大幅放缓甚至冲击整体经济增长的迹象并不明显。 三季度资本形成仍然贡献了0.9%的GDP(国内生产总值)增长,并支持实现了4.8%的GDP增速,仅仅较二季度略有下降。尽管投资品价格的变动、库存 的调整不能很好解释固定资产投资和资本形成数据的差异,但是土地购置费用的明显下行,以及软件等无形固定资产形成增长较快则可能在固定资产投资 (FAI)明显下降的同时,让资本形成继续保持温和增长。 总体而言,近期中国资本形成——真正的GDP三驾马车中投资的代表——增速并没有明显下降,"中国投资失速"的说法有失偏颇。 对中国近期投资增长的两种解读 从官方公布的数据来看,近期中国固定资产投资增长出现了明显下滑: ...
国家统计局:内需是促进上半年GDP增长的主动力
news flash· 2025-07-15 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that domestic demand, particularly consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports [1] Group 1: Economic Contributions - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to the economy, indicating its crucial role in driving growth [1] - Capital formation contributed 16.8% to economic growth, with a total contribution rate of 24.7% in the second quarter [1] - Net exports contributed 31.2% to the economy, with a contribution rate of 23% in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance - In the second quarter, final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth increased slightly to 52.3% compared to the first quarter [1] - The contribution of capital formation in the second quarter was noted at 24.7%, reflecting its importance in the overall economic structure [1] - The net export contribution in the second quarter was recorded at 23%, showcasing its ongoing relevance to economic performance [1]
印度首席经济顾问:私人消费保持稳定,资本形成稳步增长。
news flash· 2025-05-30 11:42
Core Insights - The Chief Economic Advisor of India highlighted that private consumption remains stable while capital formation is steadily increasing [1] Group 1 - Private consumption in India is reported to be stable, indicating a consistent demand from consumers [1] - Capital formation is experiencing steady growth, suggesting positive investment trends within the economy [1]