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三大股指高位波动加剧,11月将如何演绎
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-11-02 05:28
Group 1: Market Overview - Optimism from trade negotiations and a significant rise in Amazon's stock price contributed to a strong performance of major U.S. indices, marking a robust end to October for Wall Street [1] - The market remains cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which may suppress risk appetite in the upcoming week [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6, the lowest level since April [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model maintains a fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast of 3.9% [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The recent FOMC meeting indicated a hawkish stance, with some members opposing further rate cuts, reflecting strong divisions among committee members [2][3] - The market's expectations for potential rate cuts in 2025 have been adjusted downwards, with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 95% to around 60% [3] Group 4: Stock Performance - The "Magnificent 7" tech companies had mixed earnings reports, with Amazon's stock rising by 8.9% and Meta's stock dropping over 12% due to AI-related capital expenditure plans [5] - Berkshire Hathaway's latest earnings report showed a cautious market outlook, with cash reserves reaching a record $381.7 billion [5] Group 5: Market Volatility - The VIX index has risen for five consecutive days, indicating increased demand for hedging against risks through put options on the S&P 500 [6] - The upcoming week will continue to see earnings reports, with a focus on the sustainability of capital expenditures in the AI sector [6]