Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: Trump's policy is volatile, and the market is gradually desensitized to tariff disturbances. The Fed may start cutting interest rates in June, but the better economic data in April has postponed the rate - cut expectation [3]. - Cost: Indonesia has twice lowered the domestic trade benchmark price in April, but the nickel ore supply shortage persists. The new resource tax regulation has raised the overall cost of nickel products, and domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a multi - year low [3]. - Fundamentals: Due to high stainless - steel inventories, the demand for ferronickel has cooled, and its price has weakened. The supply and demand of nickel sulfate are both strong, and its price is relatively stable. The export window for electrolytic nickel remains open, and domestic resources are flowing to LME. The fundamentals remain bearish [3]. - Outlook: The impact of tariffs and resource tax is weakening, and the subsequent rate - cut expectation may boost nickel prices. The supply of electrolytic nickel remains high, stainless - steel de - stocking is slow, and the new - energy sector is about to enter the off - season. The fundamentals will remain bearish, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Futures: In April, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated widely. In the early April, affected by Trump's tariff policy, the nickel price fell. Then, due to the resource tax regulation in Indonesia, the price quickly corrected upwards and then entered a shock [7]. - Spot: The spot premium dropped from a high level. After the sharp decline in nickel prices, the spot market was active, and the premium rose rapidly. As the price stabilized at a high level, the premium declined slightly [8]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Manufacturing: In April, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The new export orders declined significantly, while domestic orders and employment indexes increased slightly [11]. - Labor market: The US unemployment rate in April was 4.2%. The non - farm payrolls were 177,000, slightly weaker than the previous period but better than expected. Wage growth is slowing down, and there are still hidden dangers in the labor market [12]. Domestic - Manufacturing: China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, below the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 50.5. New export orders and other sub - indexes declined significantly, and enterprises continued to reduce inventories [13]. - Fiscal policy: In March, the general public budget expenditure increased by about 5.67% year - on - year. The proportion of people's livelihood expenditure reached a new high since 2018, and promoting domestic demand through redistribution optimization is the clear path [13]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore - Price: The price of nickel ore continued to rise. The FOB price of Indonesian (1.5%) laterite nickel ore rose by 1.5 dollars/wet ton, and that of the Philippines rose by 4 dollars/wet ton [17]. - Supply: Indonesia has twice lowered the domestic trade benchmark price, but the supply shortage persists. In March, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 0.45% year - on - year, and domestic port inventories reached a multi - year low [17][18]. Electrolytic Nickel - Production: In April, the national refined nickel production was 36,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The production capacity was 54,099 tons, slightly higher than the previous period, and the over - capacity was more obvious [19]. - Trade: In March, China imported 8,832 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of 34.16%, and exported 14,527 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. The export window is open, and domestic resources are flowing to LME [21]. Ferronickel - Price: In April, the price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from a high level, from 1,333 yuan/nickel point at the beginning of the month to 969 yuan/nickel point at the end of the month [23]. - Supply and demand: In April, China's ferronickel production was 25,460 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%. Stainless - steel inventories are high, and the demand for ferronickel has cooled [23]. Nickel Sulfate - Price: In April, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,260 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton [27]. - Supply and demand: In April, the production of nickel sulfate was 27,895 tons (metal content), with a year - on - year decrease of 19.04% and a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. The supply and demand were basically balanced, and the profit margins of different processes showed signs of weakening [28]. Stainless Steel - Price: In April, the price of 300 - series stainless steel fluctuated. The price of 304 stainless steel (Baoxin Shanghai) dropped from 14,600 yuan/ton to 14,150 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.08% [30]. - Supply and demand: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The demand for stainless steel in the small - appliance market is strong, but the real - estate market transaction heat has cooled [30]. New - Energy Vehicles - Sales: From January to March, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles were about 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.13%. In the first 20 days of April, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles decreased by 11% compared with the same period last month [34]. - Outlook: The new - energy vehicle market may enter the off - season in the second and third quarters. Although new technologies and models are expected to be launched, and the negotiation on the minimum car price between China and the EU is ongoing, the overall demand outlook is not optimistic [35]. Inventory - As of April 25, 2025, domestic refined nickel social inventories decreased, while LME inventories increased. Domestic resources are flowing to LME, and the resource structure of primary product imports and refined nickel exports may continue [38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The supply will remain high, which is bearish for the market [40]. - Demand: High stainless - steel inventories and the upcoming off - season for new - energy vehicles mean no bright spots in demand, which is bearish [40]. - Cost: The nickel ore shortage is gradually easing, but the new resource tax regulation has raised the cost center [40]. - Macro: The Fed's rate - cut may boost market sentiment, which is neutral to bullish [40].