Report 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] 2. Core View - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 and 127,000 yuan. The demand is still weak, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to close short positions in batches and roll short after the rebound [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News - Harita Nickel in Indonesia has put 12 production lines into operation and is fully producing ferronickel [1] Supply - In the nickel ore market, the Philippines has emerged from the rainy season, with increased arrivals in China and shipments from the Philippines. The Indonesian Sulawesi mining area has rainfall, affecting ore production and causing a rebound in nickel ore prices. Domestic ferronickel production has slightly decreased, but Indonesian ferronickel production has increased rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of over 30% and a month - on - month increase of over 10%. The total supply of domestic imports and ferronickel remains high and in surplus. The month - on - month decline in electrolytic nickel production is minimal, but the year - on - year increase is over 45%, and the total supply of imported electrolytic nickel within the month is high [1] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support provided by the downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. The early stainless steel production was high, but since May, ferronickel profits have shrunk rapidly and may face losses, which may affect stainless steel production. Overall, the demand is still weak [2] Report 2: Shanghai Zinc Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [3] 2. Core View - Tariff impacts have temporarily receded. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so zinc is generally viewed bearishly [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News - In May 2025, the zinc and zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 493,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The cumulative output from January to May was 2.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. In June, most previously overhauled smelters resumed production. It is estimated that the refined zinc output in June will increase by 19,000 tons to 512,000 tons month - on - month, with a daily average increase of 7.3% [3] Supply - During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is basically maintained at about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Smelters can basically break even without considering by - products and make a profit with by - products. The overall supply is relatively loose [3] Demand - Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but capacity utilization and output are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The steel mill inventory is low, and social inventory has started to accumulate. The zinc oxide production is temporarily without positive support, and there are signs of further contraction. The die - casting alloy start - up rate has exceeded the same period last year, but the downstream start - up rate is expected to weaken. In general, the short - term zinc demand side is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4]

Group 1 - Jinchuan Nickel Cobalt has completed its IPO counseling with CITIC Securities and CICC as advisors, but has not disclosed financial data or the total fundraising amount yet [2] - The company, established in 2013, is the largest producer in China's nickel-cobalt industry, with a post-investment valuation close to 70 billion yuan after a recent capital increase [5] - In 2024, Jinchuan Nickel Cobalt reported revenues of 37.479 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.849 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year decline in both revenue and profit [5][6] Group 2 - The revenue from nickel products for Jinchuan Group showed a decline from 32.673 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.456 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while cobalt product revenues also decreased significantly [6] - The overall nickel market is facing oversupply and slowing demand growth, leading to fluctuating nickel prices, although there is potential for recovery due to emerging industries [7] - The cobalt market is experiencing severe supply-demand imbalances, with significant price drops, and non-listed companies face greater performance pressures without capital market support [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: US economic soft data has been revised, but the Fed's attitude remains hawkish, and the game between Powell and Trump will continue. Tariff risks have resurfaced, and the court's ruling on Trump's tariffs has been postponed. The "TACO" trading strategy is prevalent, and policy disturbances may be quickly repaired [3]. - Cost aspect: The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persisted throughout the month, and the price of laterite nickel ore continued to rise. Although there was information about a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia in the middle of the month, the nickel ore price did not loosen, and cost support remained [3]. - Fundamental supply and demand: Both supply and demand decreased. The production of electrolytic nickel contracted slightly, but the export window remained open, and the overall domestic supply remained at a high level. The production of stainless steel decreased for the second consecutive month, and the inventory - reduction process was tortuous. The easing of tariffs did not effectively drive stainless - steel consumption. The production schedule of ternary materials was generally stable, and there were no obvious marginal changes in the fundamentals [3]. - Outlook: Trump's tariff policy may cause periodic disturbances at the macro level, but the policy disturbances may be quickly repaired. On the fundamentals, driven by the export window, the domestic supply of electrolytic nickel may remain at a high level. The inventory of stainless steel is being reduced, but the progress is slow, and the effect of rushing to export may be difficult to materialize. The new - energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down, and it is difficult for the demand side to show obvious increments. Overall, there is no expectation of improvement in the fundamentals, the cost - support logic remains, and the macro level may have periodic disturbances, but the correction expectation is strong. Nickel prices may fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly. At the beginning of May, due to the boost of the China - US trade agreement, the macro - expectation was repaired, and the nickel price rose. However, as the stainless - steel inventory remained high, the expectation of rushing to export was frustrated, and the price weakened. In the late month, the rumor of a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia dragged down the nickel price, but the price quickly recovered after the fall [8]. - The spot premium of refined nickel first weakened and then strengthened. Although the nickel price declined in May, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The premium decreased from 2400 yuan at the beginning of the month to 2150 yuan on May 22nd. At the end of the month, affected by the sharp decline in the nickel price, the downstream purchasing was stimulated, and the premium rose from 2150 yuan on the 22nd to 2600 yuan on the 30th [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas - US economic data was mixed. In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core PCE was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure eased. The manufacturing performance was below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in May at 48.5. The labor market was generally stable [13]. - Tariff risks remained, but the actual disturbance was limited. Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but then the ruling was postponed. Although Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products on May 30th, the market believes that his tariff policy will still follow the "high - start and low - end" pattern, and the "TACO" trading strategy is still popular, so the actual impact is limited [14]. Domestic - The performance of the manufacturing industry was divided, indicating that domestic demand was stronger than foreign trade. In May, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.5, in line with expectations, and the demand - side data improved. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was weaker, reflecting the difficulties faced by small and medium - sized private manufacturing enterprises [15]. - Domestic consumption vitality was increasing. In April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased for the second consecutive month, and the CPI growth rate was repaired [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Nickel Ore Shortage Continued, and Ore Prices Kept Rising - The price of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia (1.5%) increased from $39.1 per wet ton to $40.8 per wet ton, while the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore in the Philippines decreased from $51 per wet ton to $48.5 per wet ton. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was tight, and the price remained strong. Although there was news of an increase in the approval quota, the price did not loosen. The continuous rainfall in Indonesia and the Philippines affected the shipment of nickel ore [17]. - In April, China's nickel - ore imports were 291.41 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. As of May 30th, the domestic port inventory was about 725.88 tons, a slight increase compared with the end of April but still at an absolute low level in the past three years [19]. 3.3.2 Electrolytic Nickel Supply Contracted Month - on - Month, and Upstream Cost Pressure Was Prominent - In May, the total output of refined nickel in China was 35,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.34%, 16.13 percentage points lower than the expected level, and the over - capacity pattern continued. In April, the profit margins of all process lines of integrated electrowinning nickel decreased [20]. - In April, China imported 19,157 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 135.76%. The export volume was about 17,216 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 150.3% and 18.51% respectively. The export window remained open, and the average monthly export profit in May was repaired to $204.78 per ton [22]. 3.3.3 Weak Downstream Buying, and Nickel - Iron Inventory Continued to Accumulate - In May, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined from 959 yuan per nickel point at the beginning of the month to 954 yuan per nickel point at the end of the month [24]. - In May, China's nickel - iron output was 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. In June, the expected production was 25,640 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The cost was strong, and only the Shandong pyrometallurgical BF process could maintain good profits, while the RKEF and EF processes had negative profit margins. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the terminal consumption was still weak. As of May 30th, the domestic nickel - iron inventory was about 275,500 tons (physical tons), an increase of about 27,500 tons compared with the end of April [25]. - In April, the domestic nickel - iron imports were about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The imports from Indonesia accounted for about 97.28% [26]. 3.3.4 No Obvious Increment in Demand, and the Expectation of Nickel Sulfate Was Stable - In May, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased from 28,085 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate decreased to about 30,000 yuan per ton [28]. - In May, the output of nickel sulfate was 26,015 tons (metal content), a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The output of ternary materials increased. The output of 5 - series and 8 - series ternary cathode materials decreased month - on - month, while the production of 6 - series ternary materials expanded. Except for the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, which was still in a loss state, the profit margins of other process lines were positive. In April, China imported about 32,604 tons of nickel sulfate and exported 567 tons [29]. 3.3.5 Supply Contracted, and Inventory Was Slowly Reduced - In May, the price of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the net export scale in April decreased slightly. The downstream demand had no obvious increment. As of May 30th, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons compared with the end of April, but the inventory - reduction strength was less than the production - reduction strength, reflecting weak consumption [31]. 3.3.6 Limited Growth in the Power Sector, and the Industrial Track May Shift - From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31%, but the growth rate was lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. The new - energy vehicle sales in May were generally stable, but the consumption increment momentum weakened [34]. - In the later stage, the sales increment of new - energy vehicles in the third quarter may be weak. The new - energy consumption policy is gradually shifting to new - energy heavy - duty trucks, ships and other transportation fields, which may partially fill the demand gap caused by the weakening of passenger - vehicle consumption [34]. 3.3.7 Supply Contraction Dragged Down Inventory Reduction - As of May 30, 2025, the domestic refined - nickel social inventory was about 41,553 tons, a decrease of 3,048 tons compared with the end of April; the SHFE inventory was 22,299 tons, a decrease of 2,009 tons compared with the end of April; the LME nickel inventory was 201,462 tons, an increase of 144 tons compared with the end of April. The supply reduction was slightly greater than the inventory - reduction amount, and the demand side was relatively weaker. In June, the domestic supply is expected to further contract, but the export window remains open, and the fundamentals may continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot inventory may continue to be reduced due to the supply contraction [36]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, and the supply may remain at a high level [40]. - Demand: Steel - enterprise production control may suppress the production scale of stainless steel, and the expectation of rushing to export has not been fulfilled. The production schedule of ternary materials is expected to be stable [40]. - Cost: Although the nickel - ore approval quota in Indonesia has increased, the shortage situation has not been alleviated, and the ore price remains high [40]. - Macro: Tariff risks remain, but the "TACO" trading may quickly correct the situation [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: Trump's policy is volatile, and the market is gradually desensitized to tariff disturbances. The Fed may start cutting interest rates in June, but the better economic data in April has postponed the rate - cut expectation [3]. - Cost: Indonesia has twice lowered the domestic trade benchmark price in April, but the nickel ore supply shortage persists. The new resource tax regulation has raised the overall cost of nickel products, and domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a multi - year low [3]. - Fundamentals: Due to high stainless - steel inventories, the demand for ferronickel has cooled, and its price has weakened. The supply and demand of nickel sulfate are both strong, and its price is relatively stable. The export window for electrolytic nickel remains open, and domestic resources are flowing to LME. The fundamentals remain bearish [3]. - Outlook: The impact of tariffs and resource tax is weakening, and the subsequent rate - cut expectation may boost nickel prices. The supply of electrolytic nickel remains high, stainless - steel de - stocking is slow, and the new - energy sector is about to enter the off - season. The fundamentals will remain bearish, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Futures: In April, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated widely. In the early April, affected by Trump's tariff policy, the nickel price fell. Then, due to the resource tax regulation in Indonesia, the price quickly corrected upwards and then entered a shock [7]. - Spot: The spot premium dropped from a high level. After the sharp decline in nickel prices, the spot market was active, and the premium rose rapidly. As the price stabilized at a high level, the premium declined slightly [8]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Manufacturing: In April, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The new export orders declined significantly, while domestic orders and employment indexes increased slightly [11]. - Labor market: The US unemployment rate in April was 4.2%. The non - farm payrolls were 177,000, slightly weaker than the previous period but better than expected. Wage growth is slowing down, and there are still hidden dangers in the labor market [12]. Domestic - Manufacturing: China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, below the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 50.5. New export orders and other sub - indexes declined significantly, and enterprises continued to reduce inventories [13]. - Fiscal policy: In March, the general public budget expenditure increased by about 5.67% year - on - year. The proportion of people's livelihood expenditure reached a new high since 2018, and promoting domestic demand through redistribution optimization is the clear path [13]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore - Price: The price of nickel ore continued to rise. The FOB price of Indonesian (1.5%) laterite nickel ore rose by 1.5 dollars/wet ton, and that of the Philippines rose by 4 dollars/wet ton [17]. - Supply: Indonesia has twice lowered the domestic trade benchmark price, but the supply shortage persists. In March, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 0.45% year - on - year, and domestic port inventories reached a multi - year low [17][18]. Electrolytic Nickel - Production: In April, the national refined nickel production was 36,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The production capacity was 54,099 tons, slightly higher than the previous period, and the over - capacity was more obvious [19]. - Trade: In March, China imported 8,832 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of 34.16%, and exported 14,527 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. The export window is open, and domestic resources are flowing to LME [21]. Ferronickel - Price: In April, the price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from a high level, from 1,333 yuan/nickel point at the beginning of the month to 969 yuan/nickel point at the end of the month [23]. - Supply and demand: In April, China's ferronickel production was 25,460 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%. Stainless - steel inventories are high, and the demand for ferronickel has cooled [23]. Nickel Sulfate - Price: In April, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,260 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton [27]. - Supply and demand: In April, the production of nickel sulfate was 27,895 tons (metal content), with a year - on - year decrease of 19.04% and a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. The supply and demand were basically balanced, and the profit margins of different processes showed signs of weakening [28]. Stainless Steel - Price: In April, the price of 300 - series stainless steel fluctuated. The price of 304 stainless steel (Baoxin Shanghai) dropped from 14,600 yuan/ton to 14,150 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.08% [30]. - Supply and demand: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The demand for stainless steel in the small - appliance market is strong, but the real - estate market transaction heat has cooled [30]. New - Energy Vehicles - Sales: From January to March, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles were about 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.13%. In the first 20 days of April, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles decreased by 11% compared with the same period last month [34]. - Outlook: The new - energy vehicle market may enter the off - season in the second and third quarters. Although new technologies and models are expected to be launched, and the negotiation on the minimum car price between China and the EU is ongoing, the overall demand outlook is not optimistic [35]. Inventory - As of April 25, 2025, domestic refined nickel social inventories decreased, while LME inventories increased. Domestic resources are flowing to LME, and the resource structure of primary product imports and refined nickel exports may continue [38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The supply will remain high, which is bearish for the market [40]. - Demand: High stainless - steel inventories and the upcoming off - season for new - energy vehicles mean no bright spots in demand, which is bearish [40]. - Cost: The nickel ore shortage is gradually easing, but the new resource tax regulation has raised the cost center [40]. - Macro: The Fed's rate - cut may boost market sentiment, which is neutral to bullish [40].