（原标题：经观月度观察|经济韧性显现，提高资金向实体传导效率） 麦高证券研究发展部宏观首席研究员刘娟秀点评：9月CPI同比降幅较8月收窄0.1个百分点至-0.3%，环 比由平转涨0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比升至1.0%，为近19个月以来的最高点，且连续5 个月保持涨幅扩大态势，充分反映经济内生动能持续修复。 经济观察网 李晓丹 实习生 朱嫡 魏琛琪 王明飞 何抒澄/文 经济韧性显现但压力犹存，扩内需政策需要 进一步加码，既要有效拉动制造业和服务业的真实需求，也要在满足实体经济的金融需求的同时，提高 资金向实体经济传导的效率。 宏观数据显示，2025年9月CPI由-0.4%上升至-0.3%；PPI从-2.9%上升至-2.3%；制造业PMI由49.4%上涨 至49.8%；新增人民币贷款12900亿元，较上月增加7000亿元；同上月相比，M2增速下降，增速为 8.4%。 由《经济观察报》发起的"经济观察报月度观察"，每月发布一次。本次共有11家机构参与月度宏观数据 预测。 CPI：内生动能持续修复 CPI公布值（同比）：-0.3% 前值：-0.4% CPI预测值（同比）：-0.2% 核心CPI突破" ...

Core Insights - Economic resilience is evident, but pressures remain, necessitating further expansion of domestic demand policies to effectively stimulate real demand in manufacturing and services while improving the efficiency of financial support to the real economy [1] CPI: Sustained Recovery of Internal Momentum - The CPI for September increased from -0.4% to -0.3%, with a core CPI rising to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, indicating a sustainable recovery in internal demand [4][2] - Prices of gold and platinum jewelry surged by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, reflecting accelerated consumer demand [4] PPI: Gradual Recovery Expected - The PPI for September decreased by 2.3%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with expectations of a potential positive turn in the first half of next year [7][5] - The recent implementation of anti-involution measures in key sectors like photovoltaics and new energy is showing positive effects on price governance [7] PMI: Need for Further Demand Stimulation - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, indicating slight improvement, but still reflects economic pressure with a widening supply-demand gap [11][8] - The production index's increase is attributed to the release of backlogged orders and exporters ramping up shipments [11] Fixed Asset Investment: Weak Performance - Fixed asset investment fell by 7.1% year-on-year in September, with significant declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [14][12] - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.5% drop in sales area and an 11.8% decrease in sales value [14] Credit: Steady Scale - New RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan in September, reflecting a seasonal uptick, with overall credit scale remaining stable [17][15] - Factors contributing to this include the implementation of new policy financial tools and improved corporate operating conditions [17] M2: Need for Improved Transmission Efficiency - M2 growth slowed to 8.4%, indicating insufficient credit generation and limited fiscal counteraction [20][18] - The structure of deposits shows a shift from fiscal departments back to residents and enterprises, highlighting the need for enhanced efficiency in transmitting funds to the real economy [20]