周六福 周生生 周大福 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 44.18 0.86 1.99% 2.49% 1.66% 0.83% 0.00% 0.83% 1.66% 2.49% 42.24 42.60 42.96 43.32 43.68 44.04 44.40 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 2万 5万 7万 2025年11月26日北京时间14:51，现货黄金最新报4152.88美元/盎司，日内涨幅达0.56%，开盘价4131.00 美元/盎司，最高价4169.20美元/盎司，最低价4129.07美元/盎司，成交量36364手。 COMEX黄金最新报4188.00美元/盎司，日内涨幅达0.55%，开盘价4167.00美元/盎司，最高价4204.90美 元/盎司，最低价4163.60美元/盎司，成交量39152手。 【技术分析】 现货黄金15分钟MACD指标释放看空信号，KDJ指标释放看空信号，RSI释放看空信号；1小时MACD指 标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看空信号，RSI释放看空信号。 【持仓分析】 当前最新国内黄金珠宝品牌公布价格如下： 周大福足金饰品报价1312 ...

Core Points - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop, with London spot gold falling below $4030 per ounce and silver dropping below $50 per ounce [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China were adjusted downward, with notable reductions from major brands [2] Price Adjustments - Chow Sang Sang gold price is now ¥1289 per gram, down by ¥16 from the previous day [2] - Lao Miao gold price is now ¥1276 per gram, down by ¥13 from the previous day [2] - Chow Tai Fook gold price is now ¥1288 per gram, down by ¥17 from the previous day [2] Current Gold Prices in China - The price of 24K gold jewelry is ¥1289 per gram [4] - The price of 950 platinum jewelry is ¥626 per gram [4] - Lao Miao gold price for 24K gold is ¥1276 per gram [6]

Core Insights - The continuous expansion of the core CPI for six months is seen as a positive sign, but it is insufficient to determine whether a true turning point in China's economic prices has been reached, requiring further evaluation of upcoming data [1][14]. Economic Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a decline in growth rate for five consecutive months [2]. - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a potential turning point in price trends and a signal of recovering consumer demand [2][3]. Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales growth is attributed to a "supply-demand imbalance," highlighting the need for enhanced consumer demand [3]. - Consumption has become the primary driver of GDP growth this year, with various policies introduced to stimulate consumption, such as "trade-in" programs [3]. Price Dynamics - The core CPI's rise is influenced by factors such as the consumption boost from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and a surge in gold prices [7]. - Service prices have been gradually recovering since March, with notable increases in airfares and hotel accommodation prices [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's growth reflects improving terminal consumer demand, it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices [14]. - The overall CPI is expected to remain low, with projections indicating that achieving a 2% or 3% year-on-year CPI growth next year will require multiple favorable factors, including a recovery in real estate prices and improvements in median income growth [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tianjin increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 0.1% from January to October [1] Group 1: Price Changes - In October, food prices rose by 0.1% and non-food prices also increased by 0.1% compared to September [1] - During the eight-day holiday period, hotel accommodation and travel agency fees increased by 5.9% and 2.1% respectively due to heightened travel demand [1] - Diesel and gasoline prices decreased by 0.9% influenced by international price transmission, while the prices of platinum, gold, and silver jewelry rose by 14.1%, 10.4%, and 3.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Price Comparison - Compared to October of the previous year, prices for eight categories of goods and services showed four increases and four decreases [1] - Prices for other goods and services rose by 15.1%, while clothing, education, culture, entertainment, and daily necessities increased by 2.5%, 2.0%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Conversely, transportation and communication, as well as food and tobacco prices decreased by 2.2% and 1.1%, while medical care and housing prices fell by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shenzhen increased by 0.4% year-on-year in October 2025, with the core CPI rising by 0.9%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [1] - Average CPI from January to October 2025 rose by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Food prices decreased by 1.5%, with rice, pork, and dairy prices falling by 10.0%, 6.3%, and 4.4% respectively, contributing to a 0.17 percentage point decline in CPI [1] Group 2 - Non-food prices increased by 0.7%, with medical services and utilities rising by 6.3% and 1.4%, respectively, contributing to a 0.29 percentage point increase in CPI [1] - Jewelry and platinum prices surged by 51.1% and 56.4%, respectively, adding approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI [1] - The CPI remained stable month-on-month, following a 0.2% decline in the previous month [1] Group 3 - The pork market is currently characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a 2.1% decrease in pork prices [2] - The arrival of seasonal fruits has increased supply, resulting in a 2.8% drop in fresh fruit prices [2] - Non-food prices remained stable, with hotel accommodation and travel agency fees rising by 7.6% and 4.1% during the National Day holiday, contributing to a 0.06 percentage point increase in CPI [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are on the rise, with spot gold surpassing $4,140, reflecting a weekly increase of over 3% [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On November 11, spot gold surged by 2.85%, closing around $4,115, marking the highest closing price since October 23 [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.76%, reaching $4,120.60 per ounce on the same day [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with Chow Sang Sang's price rising to ¥1,308 per gram from ¥1,276, an increase of ¥32 [3] - Lao Feng Xiang's gold jewelry price increased to ¥1,310 per gram from ¥1,273, a rise of ¥37 [3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves stood at 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of September, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [9] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks accelerated gold purchases in Q3, with a net purchase of 220 tons, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [9] - In the first three quarters of the year, global central banks accumulated a total of 634 tons of gold, significantly higher than the average levels before 2022 [9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Amid deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and rising global tensions, central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, enhancing its perception as a safe-haven asset [10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may maintain high volatility in the short term, but the underlying factors supporting mid-term price increases, such as rising uncertainty and "de-dollarization," remain intact [10] - Predictions indicate that gold may continue its upward trend next year, with structural and cyclical opportunities likely to resonate [10]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2% and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, indicating a moderate recovery in prices[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a six-month consecutive increase and reaching the highest level since March 2024[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the overall CPI negatively by approximately 0.54 percentage points[11] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive growth of the year, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month[19] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in key industries, effective capacity management, and the release of consumer demand[19] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, reflecting the positive impact of industrial upgrades and technological innovation[19] Group 3: Economic Signals and Risks - The month-on-month CPI increase signals multiple positive economic indicators, including the effectiveness of demand expansion policies and the recovery of service consumption[16] - However, potential risks remain, such as insufficient effective demand and the cyclical adjustment of agricultural product prices, particularly pork, which may continue to drag down the CPI[16] - The energy prices remain a significant external variable affecting price fluctuations, influenced by international commodity market volatility[16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation reading is likely to rise in the next six months, considering factors such as base dislocation and anti - involution policies. The market, especially the bond market, has not priced in the possibility of a significant inflation rebound. There are risks in the judgment that "inflation is difficult to maintain an upward trend." In the bond market, economic expectations are being revised, and bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, it is advisable to pay attention to the potential for a rebound in bond yields and the potential upside of pro - cyclical sectors in the stock market [5][6]. Summary According to Related Contents Event Review - In October 2025, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: 0.1%) and 0.2% year - on - year (- 0.3% previously); the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month (0.0%) and 1.2% year - on - year (1.0%); the PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month (0.0%) and fell 2.1% year - on - year (- 2.3%). The CPI year - on - year increase was significantly higher than the market expectation, with the median forecast of 21 institutions surveyed by Wind being - 0.1% and the maximum only 0.1% [3]. Factors Affecting Inflation CPI Factors - Gold price changes have a relatively large impact on the current CPI year - on - year increase, with gold and platinum jewelry price changes roughly contributing a 0.3% pull to the CPI year - on - year. Gold prices may remain at a high level year - on - year in the next few months [3]. - The anti - seasonal rise in vegetable prices has led to base dislocation. The impact of vegetable prices on the CPI year - on - year may continue to increase, potentially adding an extra 0.2% to the November CPI year - on - year [4]. - Pork prices are still at historical lows, but there are signs of a bottom, and the base is starting to decline, so the negative drag on the CPI may gradually decrease. The situation of eggs is similar. The price of high - priced protein such as beef has risen significantly since April, and the beef CPI year - on - year in October was 5.6% [4]. PPI Factors - The PPI turning positive month - on - month is a positive signal. The improvement in supply - demand relations and input factors led to the first positive month - on - month PPI in October 2025 since November 2024. Future PPI trends depend on oil prices (which may have bottomed out as OPEC's production increase may end) and the effectiveness of anti - involution policies, as prices of coal, lithium, etc. have already risen [4]. Market Implications Bond Market - If inflation returns to 2% in 2026, bond yields will rise. Currently, most bond market investors are skeptical about a significant inflation rebound. If inflation readings rise, market expectations may reverse, which could lead to a 1 - 2 - month impact on the bond market and a yield increase of about 20bp, as seen in 2016 Q2 and 2019 [5]. Stock Market - The logic of paying attention to the possibility of inflation data rising also applies to the stock market. Believing in the "normalization of inflation" in advance can help capture the potential upside of pro - cyclical sectors [6]. Data Tables Table 1: CPI and PPI Data in October 2025 - It shows the month - on - month and year - on - year data of CPI and PPI from January to October 2025, including breakdowns of food, non - food, services, production materials, and living materials [40]. Table 2: Price Changes in Various Industries in October 2025 - It presents the month - on - month and year - on - year price changes of different industries such as mining, manufacturing, and public utilities in October 2025, and compares them with September data [41].

Core Insights - Domestic gold prices have reached a historical high, with overall prices surpassing 1300 RMB per gram, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [1][2][3] Gold Prices Overview - Major brands have reported significant increases in gold prices, with Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang both at 1310 RMB per gram, marking the highest price points [1][2] - Other notable prices include: - Liufu: 1306 RMB per gram, up by 29 RMB - Zhou Dafu: 1308 RMB per gram, up by 29 RMB - Zhou Liu Fu: 1283 RMB per gram, up by 27 RMB - Shanghai China Gold: 1218 RMB per gram, up by 30 RMB [1][2] Platinum and Recycling Prices - Platinum prices have also increased, with Zhou Dafu's platinum jewelry rising by 6 RMB per gram to 642 RMB per gram [3] - Gold recycling prices have surged by 21.9 RMB per gram, with varying rates across brands: - Lao Feng Xiang: 950.80 RMB per gram - Zhou Dafu: 941.90 RMB per gram [3] International Gold Market - The international spot gold price rose significantly, closing at 4115.74 USD per ounce, a 2.87% increase, and further rising to 4132.07 USD per ounce [5] - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with a 63.1% probability for a rate cut in December [5] - The consumption of gold bars and coins in China reached 352.116 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 24.55% year-on-year increase, indicating robust demand [5]