图片来源：曲合APP 今日白银大跌不是因为基本面变差，核心是"被动调仓+资金平仓+流动性差"凑到了一起。关键推手是彭博商品 指数年度调整，之前白银涨太多导致权重超标，现在要从7.11%降到3.94%，被动基金得在一周内集中卖白银， 预计卖盘有34-50亿美元，而白银市场盘子小，扛不住这种集中抛售。再加上近期交易所上调了白银期货交易保 证金，高杠杆投资者没钱追加就只能被迫平仓，又多了一波卖盘。 另外，元旦后市场流动性本身就紧，加上机构借调仓窗口止盈、期货换月，还有程序化交易跟风做空，形成"越 跌越卖"的恶性循环，直接放大了跌幅。这种情况是短期技术性冲击，等1月14日指数调整结束，抛压退了，价 格大概率会回归正常。短期交易要注意10-12日可能是抛压高峰，中长期不用慌，看看后续卖盘是不是变少、市 场有没有人接盘就行。 。 白银方面，多头资金通过 ETF 和实物交割方式大量增持驱动价格偏强运行，全球库存紧张的情况或未真正缓 解，但价格高位运行可能抑制工业领域的需求。随着 CME 等交易所提保短期资金情绪驱动价格"非理性"的上涨 走势有望终结带来降波，后续关注还需全球大宗商品指数调仓可能带来被动减持的回调风险，在高波 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the copper market, indicating that copper prices are experiencing a correction due to capital liquidation. It also presents various fundamental data and macro - industry news, with a copper trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 98,860 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 96,060 with a decrease of 2.83%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 12,188 with a daily increase of 0.45% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 974,647, an increase of 424,617 from the previous day, and the open interest was 642,644, a decrease of 12,092. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 64,636, an increase of 46,441, and the open interest was 341,000, an increase of 1,268 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 65,878, an increase of 7,231, and the LME copper inventory was 154,575, a decrease of 2,450. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 28.51%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points [1]. - **Spreads**: There are multiple spread data, such as the LME copper spot - to - futures spread increased by 6.53, the spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 10, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: From January to November, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). The profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [1]. - **Industry**: Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons. China's copper ore and concentrate imports in November 2025 were 2,526,194.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor - management contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The copper trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, and the value ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].