本文源自：卓创资讯 随着元旦假期结束，玉米蛋白粉进入了需求阶段性淡季，价格出现小幅回调。在元旦前夕，国内市场经 历了短暂的集中采购期，节后下游市场需求减弱，采购热情下降。与此同时，自12月中旬起，玉米蛋白 粉的集中出口期也逐渐告一段落，而国内玉米深加工行业的开工率依然保持在全年较高水平，这进一步 加大了市场的供应压力。截至1月5日，山东地区60%玉米蛋白粉市场成交价为3840-4080元/吨，较前一 交易日区间持平，其中部分工厂成交价格较元旦前下跌60元/吨，跌幅1.47%。因玉米价格仍维持在相对 高位，对副产品有一定成本支撑，豆粕价格变动幅度有限，预计玉米副产品价格短期小幅偏弱，回落空 间有限。（卓创资讯） ...

| 美股指数 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 48461.93 | 23474.35 | 6905.74 | | -249.04 -0.51% | -118.75 -0.50% | -24.20 -0.35% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7636.97 | 25739.00 | 6954.75 | | -51.56 -0.67% | -124.25 -0.48% | -24.50 -0.35% | 据新华国际消息，受投资者获利回吐、短期期货交易者多头平仓影响，国际黄金、白银期货价格29日大幅下跌，金价跌幅一度超过4.5%，银价跌幅一度 逼近9%。截至发稿时，金价为每盎司4346.6美元，银价为每盎司71.54美元。 当地时间12月29日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌超1%，亚马逊跌0.19%。 | W | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) 667 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the copper market, indicating that copper prices are experiencing a correction due to capital liquidation. It also presents various fundamental data and macro - industry news, with a copper trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 98,860 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 96,060 with a decrease of 2.83%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 12,188 with a daily increase of 0.45% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 974,647, an increase of 424,617 from the previous day, and the open interest was 642,644, a decrease of 12,092. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 64,636, an increase of 46,441, and the open interest was 341,000, an increase of 1,268 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 65,878, an increase of 7,231, and the LME copper inventory was 154,575, a decrease of 2,450. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 28.51%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points [1]. - **Spreads**: There are multiple spread data, such as the LME copper spot - to - futures spread increased by 6.53, the spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 10, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: From January to November, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). The profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [1]. - **Industry**: Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons. China's copper ore and concentrate imports in November 2025 were 2,526,194.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor - management contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The copper trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, and the value ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

美股大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌超 1%，亚马逊跌0.19%。 当地时间12月29日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4331.668 | 72.200 | 4349.6 | | -200.742 -4.43% | -7.129 -8.99% | -203.1 -4.46% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 71.600 | 975.80 | 17237 | | -5.596 -7.25% | -40.66 -4.00% | -1650 -8.74% | | 能源化工 C | | | | NYMEX WTI原 | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫原 | | 57.80 | 61.22 | 57.59 | | +1.06 +1.87% | +0.98 +1.63% | +1.03 +1.82% | | INE原油 | INE低硫燃料油 | NYMEX天然气 | | 436. ...

当地时间12月29日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.66%，万得中概科技龙头指数跌1.43%。热门中概股方 面，叮咚买菜跌超7%，大全新能源跌超5%，脑再生科技涨超10%。 大宗商品方面，受投资者获利回吐、短期期货交易者多头平仓影响，国际黄金、白银期货价格29日大幅 下跌，金价跌幅一度超过4.5%，银价跌幅一度逼近9%，铂金、钯金盘中更是暴跌15%左右。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌超 1%，亚马逊跌0.19%。 | | | | 资料 成分 | 资讯 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅◆ | H | | 苹果(APPLE) AAPL.O | 273.760 | 0.13% | 0 | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 487.100 | -0.13% | | | MSFT.O | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET). | 314.390 | -0.18% | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that after a record surge, silver prices need a breather, indicating a potential market correction ahead [2][3][5] Group 1: Impulsive Surge Detachment from Fundamentals - Despite existing macroeconomic and supply-demand factors that previously drove silver prices up, the current surge is characterized as "impulsive" and largely disconnected from real-world economic conditions [3][9] - The recent price increase appears to exceed what fundamental factors can support, with the rebound occurring in a manner that lacks broad market logic [8][10] - Analysts warn that the U.S. deficit situation has not materially changed, and other assets traditionally seen as hedges against currency devaluation, such as Bitcoin and stock indices, have lost direction [9] Group 2: Historical Data Indicates Weak Future Returns - Historical data suggests that after experiencing a 100% increase in a single year, assets typically face weaker returns in subsequent years [4][12] - Analysts note that while such strong annual returns are rare, they often lead to lackluster performance in the following year, indicating potential challenges ahead for silver [12] - Recommendations include selling silver and large tech stocks as investors approach 2026, while maintaining positions in gold for those seeking to hedge against currency devaluation [13] Group 3: Technical Indicators Show Overbought Conditions - Technical analysis indicates that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver has reached 68, nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential price correction [14] - The 50-day moving average for silver is currently above the 200-day moving average, reinforcing the notion of an overbought state [14] - Analysts recommend that investors consider locking in profits and waiting for a market pullback before re-entering [15]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the lithium iron phosphate cost index and standardizing industry development, suggesting that companies use the industry average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for pricing and not engage in low - price dumping below the cost line. The association will also regularly disclose the industry average cost range monthly and requires companies to submit operating data regularly [3] - After the lithium carbonate price reached 100,000 yuan, the market focuses on the continuation of the peak demand season and the resumption rhythm of mines in Jiangxi. There was a market correction due to factors such as narrowing de - stocking and mine resumption news. Terminal demand remains strong, but there is a callback demand due to the large number of profit - taking positions. With overseas mines, the market has a negative sentiment. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices face downward pressure and may experience wide - range fluctuations after stabilizing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compound and Lithium Ore Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,300 yuan, up 2,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 89,900 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [1] - Lithium ore prices: lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,089 yuan, down 28 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,615 yuan, down 95 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O:2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,550 yuan, down 150 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:6% - 7%) is 8,750 yuan, down 875 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:7% - 8%) is 10,100 yuan, down 975 yuan [1][2] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Futures - Futures contract prices and changes: lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 90,960 yuan, down 8.99%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 91,020 yuan, down 9%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 91,040 yuan, down 9%; lithium carbonate 2603 closed at 91,160 yuan, down 8.99%; lithium carbonate 2604 closed at 91,880 yuan, down 8.99% [1] 3.3 Cathode Materials - Cathode material average prices and changes: lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 38,985 yuan, up 240 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,650 yuan, up 100 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 143,950 yuan, up 200 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,250 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] 3.4 Price Spreads - Price spreads and their changes: the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,280 yuan, up 8,960 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 80 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] 3.5 Inventory - Total inventory (weekly) is 118,420 tons, down 2,052 tons; smelter inventory (weekly) is 26,104 tons, down 2,166 tons; downstream inventory (weekly) is 44,436 tons, down 4,336 tons; other inventory (weekly) is 47,880 tons, up 4,450 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily) is 26,848 tons, down 68 tons [2] 3.6 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 89,670 yuan, and the profit is 1,350 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 93,596 yuan, and the profit is 4,836 yuan [3] 3.7 Industry News - SMM reported that lithium carbonate production increased by 585 tons and inventory decreased by 2,052 tons this week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices marks the largest drop in five years, following a significant increase that pushed prices to historical highs, indicating potential market corrections and volatility in precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices fell over 5% in a single day, dropping below $4,130 after reaching above $4,380, with silver experiencing a decline of over 7% [1]. - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar has made precious metals more expensive for buyers, contributing to the recent price drop [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable decrease in global demand for precious metals as seasonal buying in India has ended, leading traders to become more cautious about potential corrections [2]. - The absence of key data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to the U.S. government shutdown has left traders uncertain, potentially leading to large speculative positions in gold and silver [2]. Group 3: ETF and Trading Activity - The trading volume of options linked to the largest gold-backed ETF reached record highs, indicating increased speculative activity in the market [2]. - Despite the recent price drop, the absolute scale of gold held by ETFs has not yet reached previous peaks, suggesting that upward momentum could continue, although historical trends indicate that buying pressure may eventually turn into selling pressure [3]. Group 4: Silver Market Insights - Silver has seen a significant pullback after a nearly 80% increase this year, driven by similar macroeconomic factors as gold [3]. - Market sentiment for silver remains volatile, with a short-term resistance level identified at $54, while fluctuations are expected to continue as long as gold remains relatively strong [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][6]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situations and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight回调 [2][7]. - Silicon iron is likely to have wide - range fluctuations as the quotes in the main production areas are loosening [2][11]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with the downward movement of manganese ore port quotes [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are subject to repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to experience repeated fluctuations [2][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 782.0 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan or 2.80%. The previous day's position was 499,799 hands, an increase of 14,460 hands. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,061 yuan/ton and 3,241 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.81% and 0.70%. Spot prices in major regions decreased. There were also changes in basis and spreads [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed that the daily output of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventory increased by 8.2% compared with the previous ten - day period. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.4% month - on - month. The weekly data on October 8 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and some manganese ore decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 13, the quotes of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed, and the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased. The manganese ore market is affected by macro - sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm, and the proportion of US - built or - operated ships in imported manganese ore ships is relatively small [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 0.7%. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, with some small fluctuations in the week - on - week and day - on - day comparisons [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in silver prices driven by a historic short squeeze in the London market, with prices reaching their highest levels in decades and a year-to-date increase of over 70%, surpassing gold's performance [1][2] - On October 13, the London spot silver price rose by 3%, approaching $52 per ounce, fueled by concerns over liquidity shortages in the London market and a drop in physical silver inventories to multi-year lows [2] - The premium of the London silver market over the New York market is nearing historical extremes, prompting some traders to book transatlantic flights to transport silver bars to capitalize on the high premiums [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs analysts have warned investors to be cautious regarding the recent surge in silver prices, suggesting that while silver may continue to rise in the medium term, it carries greater volatility and downside risk compared to gold in the short term [2][3] - The report from Goldman Sachs emphasizes that silver lacks the institutional and economic support that gold possesses, as it is not included in the International Monetary Fund's reserve framework and does not have significant holdings in modern central bank portfolios [2][3] - The analysts also noted that central banks prioritize managing value over weight, indicating that even with rising gold prices, policymakers are unlikely to seek cheaper alternatives like silver, which could lead to disproportionate price corrections if investment inflows temporarily decrease [3]