这是2026年围绕美联储最重要的问题之一，而美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对此一直刻意保持沉默。 "我专注于自己作为主席所剩的任期，"鲍威尔在12月的新闻发布会上表示，"关于这个问题，我没有新 的信息可以告诉你们。" 问题在于：鲍威尔在其主席任期5月结束后是否还会继续留在美联储。届时他作为理事的任期还剩两 年，而鲍威尔本人因一再拒绝回答这一问题，引发了外界的猜测。 华尔街正在提出这个问题，因为美联储观察人士试图推演利率制定机构——公开市场委员会的组成，以 及唐纳德·特朗普总统的任命人选是否将掌控美联储权力极大的理事会。美国财政部和白宫也在提出这 个问题，他们正试图弄清楚今年特朗普需要填补多少个理事会席位、可能由谁来填补，以及这些席位何 时会空出。 这个问题在过去几十年都未曾被提出过，因为此前的主席如本·伯南克和珍妮特·耶伦都在理事任期尚未 结束时便悄然离开理事会，转任其他政府职位、退休或进入私营部门。如今连鲍威尔是否会留任都尚不 明确，这恰恰反映出当前的时代特征：一位以史无前例的方式公开寻求掌控美联储政策的总统，以及一 位坚决抵制这种干预、努力捍卫美联储独立性的主席。 美联储观察人士表示，他们认为这对鲍威尔而言是一 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the long-term negative impacts of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing initiated by central banks to stabilize the economy post-2008 financial crisis, highlighting that the middle class has become the "forgotten" group bearing the costs of these policies [3][4][8]. Group 1: Economic Consequences of Low Interest Rates - Low interest rates have led to a new era of corporate consolidation and market monopolization, reminiscent of the "Morganization" during the Gilded Age, where companies engage in anti-competitive acquisitions rather than internal innovation [9][10][11]. - The rise of "zombie companies," which survive on cheap credit without innovating or investing, has stifled economic growth and reduced opportunities for the middle class [25][27][28]. - The financialization of companies, characterized by stock buybacks funded by low-cost debt, has diverted funds away from business investments, leading to a slowdown in the creation of quality jobs [18][22][24]. Group 2: Impact on the Middle Class - The increasing market concentration limits career advancement opportunities for the middle class, as fewer companies dominate industries, making job mobility and internal promotions more challenging [13][15][16]. - The ultra-low interest rate environment punishes savers, undermining the traditional economic principle of earning interest on savings, forcing the middle class to either consume their savings or take on excessive risks for minimal returns [32][36]. - Pension systems are under severe strain due to low interest rates, which diminish expected returns on pension assets and inflate future payment obligations, leading to funding shortfalls [38][40][44]. Group 3: Wealth Inequality and Economic Disparities - The so-called "wealth effect" from rising asset prices primarily benefits the wealthiest, exacerbating inequality, as the majority of financial assets are held by the top 1% [45][46][54]. - The article highlights a "K-shaped" recovery where the financial elite thrive while the middle class struggles under rising living costs and financial repression [54][56]. - The middle class faces a bleak future, unable to secure reliable wealth accumulation or career advancement, trapped in a stagnant economic environment [58][60].