超级大国
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到2049年全球将出现3个超级大国?美国预测名单上,日俄竟落榜
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 05:11
Group 1: United States - The United States maintains its core hegemony primarily through its financial system, with the dollar being a robust protective barrier [3] - Despite discussions around "de-dollarization," the dollar's dominance in international payments, foreign exchange reserves, and global commodity pricing is expected to remain unchallenged in the foreseeable future [3] - The U.S. possesses a unique "exceptional" power, allowing it to transfer crises globally through monetary policy and utilize financial sanctions as a form of "financial weapon" against adversaries [3] - New York and Wall Street continue to be the ultimate destinations for global capital, supported by unparalleled market depth, liquidity, and complexity [3] Group 2: China - China's economic transformation is fundamental to its status as a superpower, characterized by both scale and quality improvements [5] - Predictions suggest that China may become the world's largest economy by around 2030, with its economic lead expected to widen thereafter [6] - China is advancing up the industrial and value chains, transitioning from basic manufacturing to leading in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries [6] - The country aims to dominate core supply nodes in the global economy through sustained investments in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing [8] - With a unified market of 1.4 billion people and over 400 million in the middle-income group, China has a vast internal consumption market that provides significant opportunities for businesses [8] Group 3: Brazil - Brazil's inclusion alongside the U.S. and China as a superpower is surprising but supported by several advantages [10] - The country is experiencing a demographic dividend with a population of 215 million and a median age of only 32, with over 68% of the population being of working age [10] - Brazil holds a dominant position in strategic resources, ranking fifth globally in iron ore reserves, with 8% of the world's uranium and 12% of freshwater reserves [10] - The nation has successfully transitioned from being a "coffee kingdom" to the world's leading exporter of soybeans and the second-largest exporter of chicken, with modern agricultural technology doubling production in a decade [10] - Brazil is also a leader in clean energy, with hydropower meeting two-thirds of its electricity needs and top-tier biofuel technology [10] Group 4: Changing Definition of Superpowers - The definition of superpowers is evolving from military dominance and ideological influence to a focus on comprehensive national strength, sustainable development, and resilience [12] - Brazil's rise highlights that countries with young populations, abundant resources, and a foundation in clean energy may emerge as future winners in the context of climate change and energy transition [12]