文｜谢忠涛 国内某战略咨询机构酒水营销策略顾问 周期永不眠，而理解它、顺应它，或许正是白酒行业在这个时代转换关口，所能获得的最高维度的"战略红利"。 当我们看清周期更迭的轨迹，便会明白：所有的蛰伏与等待，都是为了在恰当的时机，为值得的人举杯。 《快消品渠道竞争》一书作者 什么是"康波周期" 世界经济的50年潮汐 一个俄罗斯经济学家的远见 在谈论技术革命、经济浪潮甚至人生财富时，很少有人会想到一位名叫尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫（Nikolai Kondratiev）的俄罗斯经济学家。 然而，正是他在将近一百年前，透过动荡时代的迷雾，洞察到了世界经济运行中一个惊人而深远的规律——长周期波动。 20世纪20年代，康德拉季耶夫系统分析了西方资本主义国家长达百多年的经济数据，包括价格、利率、生产和消费等系列指标。 寒冬已至，酒业亦难独善其身。库存压力、价格波动、消费疲软……这些话题已被反复咀嚼，市场的情绪也在一遍遍的重复中渐趋麻木。但或许，我们焦 虑的根源并非行业本身，而是我们仍在用旧尺子：库存、房价、短期动销丈量一个正在剧变的未来。 是时候换一把刻度更大的尺子了。这把尺子，叫做康德拉季耶夫周期，即康波周期。 它告诉我们，经 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银现货价大幅超越期货价 2025年10月10日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 【全球经济展望】 10月9日，中国对稀土相关技术实施出口管制 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 全球经济展望 中国实施人工智能+行动。汇丰新兴市场调查，中国成股票投资首选市场，调查的100家机构合计管理4230亿 美元的新兴市场资产。国际资本积极加仓中国科技板块，认为在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中国已具备 全球竞争力。Sam Altman透露，OpenAI未来几个月将有更多激进的基础设施押注。华为公布了昇腾芯片演进和目 标，算力"超节点+集群"已领先英伟达一年以上。OpenAI承诺从AMD购买价值6吉瓦的AMD芯片。三星和海力士加 入星际之门。阿里正积极推进3800亿元的AI基础设施建设，并计划追加更大的投入。 全球经济保持上行方向。 美国对各国征收对等关税后，中国商品竞争力增强，美国8月从中国进口额环比大增近40% 15,000.00 ...

出海专班为内地企业提供一站式支援方案。图为香港国际集装箱码头。 多年来，香港是内地企业进军国际市场的重要始发地。香港特区政府组建的"内地企业出海专班"(以下 简称"出海专班")于10月6日正式启动，这是香港特区行政长官李家超在2025年《施政报告》提出的重点 举措之一。该出海专班由香港投资推广署(以下简称"香港投资署")、香港贸易发展局(以下简称"香港贸 发局")及香港驻内地的办事处共同组成一站式平台，其主要目的是为了更好地支援有意拓展海外业务的 内地企业，利用香港作为平台推动业务出海。 专班提供税务、法律、融资、ESG等咨询服务 出海专班是提升香港"引进来、走出去"平台功能的重要举措。香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在致辞时 表示，内地企业出海发展，特别是在全球南方布局供应链和产业链，既是大势所趋，也是它们壮大发展 的必然选择。为了更好把握这一波的发展机遇，香港成立出海专班，为内地企业出海提供更全面、更大 力度的支援。例如，推动内地银行在香港设立区域总部以支持内地企业拓展东南亚和中东等地区市场、 提供税务宽减以吸引更多内地企业在港设立财资中心、推动碳排放核算服务等。 内地企业更需出海策略、海外网络及出海基地 全 ...

"截至2025年6月底，和铂医药股东权益已转为正值，自由现金流也实现正向增长，达4900万美 元。"Simply Wall St在报告中指出。 和铂医药此前发布的2025年中期业绩报告显示，今年上半年，公司总收入约7.25亿元，同比增长 327%；盈利约5.23亿元，同比增长51倍；现金储备充盈，约合22.91亿元，较去年年底增长92%。 新加坡政府投资基金(GIC)近日以每股均价12.7133港元的价格，斥资约5.11亿港元增持和铂医药4022.2 万股。此次增持后，GIC持有和铂医药的好仓比例从1.62%大幅提升至6.37%。以"长期价值投资"著称的 GIC，此次大手笔增持和铂医药，无疑是对该公司技术实力、管线潜力以及商业前景的认可。以10月8 日收盘价计算，该笔增持浮盈比例已近三成。 澳大利亚知名投资机构Simply Wall St近日在发布的一篇名为《亚洲市场三大"潜力黑马"》(Three Undiscovered Gems In Asia With Strong Potential)的报告中提及和铂医药。报告指出，作为生物科技企 业，和铂医药一年来收入激增243%，远超行业增速，但市盈率仍低于生物科 ...

霍华德・马克斯在《价值演算》中直言："投资的成败主要取决于对盈利能力的判断是否正确。"而这 种精准判断的内核，正是认知的深度。查理・芒格亦曾强调，"配得上"想要的事物，本质是让认知匹 配价值。 在快速流变的世界里，谁也无法基于当下作出对未来的判断；即便这个时代最厉害的人，也同样被局 限在这个时代里。只有将时间拉长，去对话几百年甚至上千年前的人、去对话宇宙万事万物，才能突 破我们被局限的认知，进而提升认知。而对话的工具就是——读书。 你能看到的各行各业的聪明人都有一个共通点，就是酷爱读书、坚持阅读。做投资更需要通过读书， 从更长远的时空来观察事物，找出变化中的不变，深刻认知事物的第一性原理，发现投资价值。 金秋十月、秋风飒爽，创业资本汇携手一众投资大咖，向读者朋友们分享他们喜爱的书籍，一同顺着 指尖穿越时空，寻找认知的高点。本期为第八期，我们邀请到和高资本创始合伙人黄文超、昆仲资本 执行董事张珏作分享。 和高资本创始合伙人黄文超 《未来10000天的可能》 作者： [美]凯文·凯利 推荐语： 我们常常被"活在当下"的箴言所慰藉，却也难免对遥远的未来感到一丝迷茫与焦虑。时间 如白驹过隙，我们似乎总在被动地迎接变化 ...

Group 1: Market Insights - Morgan Stanley's chief China equity strategist, Laura Wang, argues that the current A-share market rally is driven by earnings rather than liquidity, labeling it an "earnings bull market" [1] - The MSCI China Index has shown stable earnings over the past three quarters, with the earnings revision breadth indicator turning positive in August, making China the second market globally to enter this zone after the US [2] - Despite concerns about market divergence, key sectors such as information technology, internet, finance, and biotechnology are leading earnings growth, with foreign investors planning to increase their exposure to Chinese stocks [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Developments - OpenAI has entered a significant $90 billion GPU supply agreement with AMD, which includes a unique equity-for-purchase model, potentially redefining AI infrastructure financing [4][5] - AMD's stock surged over 37% in intraday trading following the announcement, marking its largest single-day gain since 2016 [6] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, reaching 7.406 million ounces by the end of September [9] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing a 17% increase in gold prices since August 26, driven by long-term capital inflows and central bank purchases [11] - The report indicates that gold prices may have a further 23% upside in the next two years, with central bank purchases contributing significantly to this growth [11]

港股10月首个交易日出现"开门红"，在没有南向资金支持下，恒指创四年新高，但10月3日港股回调，恒指险守 27000点 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 编辑｜郭楠陆玲 10月2日，港股10月首个交易日出现"开门红"，截至收盘，港股三大指数集体大涨，恒指涨1.61%，收报27187.12 点，创近四年新高，恒生科技指数涨3.36%，恒生国企指数涨1.77%。 摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢近日在表示，随着公司盈利企稳并且科技板块上行空间扩大，全球投资者， 特别是美国投资者对中国股票的兴趣正在日益升温。 科技板块领涨，中芯国际涨12.7%，信义光能涨9.9%，阿里巴巴-W涨3.45%，快手-W涨8.57%。有色金属走强，中 国白银集团涨超30%，南方锰业上涨22.22%，天齐锂业涨近13%。 "近期在出差过程中与多位美国投资者的交流显示，超过九成的投资者计划增加对中国股票的敞口。这些投资者对 中国企业在科技创新和研发方面展现出的能力充满信心，尤其是在人工智能、人形机器人、自动化和生物科技等 领域的表现令人兴奋。" 值得注意的是，10月2日市场成交额达2224.68亿港元。A股及港股通因为国庆假期，10月9日才恢 ...

王滢的观点反映出全球投资者对中国市场的关注度逐渐提升，特别是在科技创新领域，预计未来将有更 多的资金流入中国股市。 此外，王滢提到，从2024年第四季度到今年第二季度，中国企业的季度业绩普遍符合市场预期。她建议 投资者在资产配置中低配必需消费品和房地产板块，以更好地把握科技领域的投资机会。 摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢近日在接受采访时表示，随着公司盈利企稳并且科技板块上行空间 扩大，全球投资者，特别是美国投资者对中国股票的兴趣正在日益升温。 王滢指出，美国投资者的兴趣增长较为缓慢，但近期她在出差过程中与多位美国投资者的交流显示，超 过九成的投资者计划增加对中国股票的敞口。她表示，这些投资者对中国企业在科技创新和研发方面展 现出的能力充满信心，尤其是在人工智能、人形机器人、自动化和生物科技等领域的表现令人兴奋。 ...

2025年三季度的全球医药市场，简直像坐过山车——有的板块涨得让人拍腿，有的还在磨底，美国那边 还时不时扔个"政策炸弹"。 今天用大白话跟大家掰扯掰扯：这季度医药到底咋走的？接下来哪些方向值得盯？ 01、先划重点：这3个方向闭眼先关注 全球医药里有几条主线已经明明白白了，新手也能看懂： 港/A股里最值得看的，是帮药企做研发、生产服务的公司（业内叫"医药研发外包"或者"CXO"）。这些 公司就像"卖铲子的"——只要全球药企愿意搞新药，它们就有订单、能赚钱。 现在这波公司有两个硬优势：一是业绩增速又回到高位了，手里还攥着大笔订单，赚钱稳得很；二是估 值不算贵，业绩增速推动估值修复，还有上涨空间。 美股：盯紧两个基金（IBB跟踪纳指生物科技指数，XBI跟踪标普生物科技指数），再加上两家行业老 大（联合健康+诺和诺德）。 核心原因就一个：美联储要降息了！这对医药公司是"双重好事"：一方面，药企搞研发更容易拿到钱 （市场上的钱变多了）；另一方面，算公司未来收益时，"贴现利率"会变低，估值自然会往上提。 翻历史数据就知道，每次美联储降息后，医疗股尤其是生物科技板块，往往能涨一波。现在美股医药刚 好在"估值低、资金少、逻辑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the market is expected to rise. With the style shift, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index. The large - financial sector in the CSI 300 has fully corrected, and the technology track remains highly prosperous. [10][11] - The Chinese stock market has become the preferred choice for global institutional investors. The optimism of investors has increased, and international capital is actively increasing its positions in the Chinese technology sector. [10][23][25] - Consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter against the backdrop of expected decline in exports and investment slowdown. [45] - The AI - related capital expenditure is increasing significantly, and the semiconductor equipment industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity. [80][81][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Outlook - In September, the Shanghai Composite Index consolidated horizontally and gathered momentum before the 3900 - point mark. After the long - holiday, it is expected to cross 3900 points and head towards 4000 points. [6][94] - The CSI 300 Index has reached a new high and is expected to be the main force for upward movement in the fourth quarter. The CSI 500 Index, representing the mid - cap growth style, is expected to continue to strengthen. The STAR 50 Index remains optimistic due to the high - growth AI and semiconductor sectors. [97][100][103] Market Fundamentals - In August, the scale of stock - type funds reached 5.55 trillion yuan, an increase of over 630 billion yuan, and the scale of hybrid funds increased by over 330 billion yuan. [10] - The M1 year - on - year growth rate soared to 6.0% in August, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the stock market to rise. [12] - In August, the new RMB deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, and the savings of the household sector are accelerating the transfer to the stock market. [15] - On September 17, the margin trading balance of the two markets exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, and the margin trading funds increased their positions rapidly. In August, 2.56 million new accounts were opened. [18] - Bond funds have suffered large - scale redemptions, and funds from the bond market are continuously flowing into the stock market. [20] Global Investor Sentiment - According to the HSBC Emerging Markets Survey, investors' optimism has increased, and China has become the preferred market for stock investment. The 100 surveyed institutions manage a total of $423 billion in emerging - market assets. [10][23][27] Macroeconomic Indicators - In August, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the CPI of consumer goods increased by 0.1% month - on - month, helping to get out of deflation. [28] - In September, the Caixin PMI production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated production expansion, and the purchase price of raw materials continued to rise. [31] - In August, China's export value was $321.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%, showing export resilience. [34] - In August, the fixed - asset investment in the manufacturing industry was 2.62 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.3%, indicating investment slowdown. [37] - In August, the infrastructure investment was 1.90 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 6.4%, indicating infrastructure slowdown and reflecting the local fiscal dilemma. [40] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.4%. [45] - In August, the total electricity consumption of the whole society exceeded 1 trillion kWh again, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.2%. [48] Industrial Production - In August, the output of industrial robots was 63,700 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 32.9%. [51] - In August, the output of integrated circuits was 42.5 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 13.9%. [54] - In August, the export volume of passenger cars reached 669,000 units, and the export volume of electric vehicles reached 358,000 units, both hitting new highs. [57] International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods has increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month. [60] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, indicating strong US consumption. [65] - In August, the sales of US wholesalers reached $711.3 billion, setting a historical record, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, indicating strong US consumption. [68] - In August, the US capital goods import value was $91.9 billion, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating that the US manufacturing industry is accelerating its return and the "re - industrialization" is speeding up. [71] - In August, the unfinished orders of the US manufacturing industry were at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, indicating high prosperity. [74] Strategy Recommendations - Stock index futures directional trading: In the fourth quarter, the market is expected to rise. With the style shift, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index. [11] - Stock index option trading: Buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock index options. [11] AI and Semiconductor - Alibaba plans to make additional investments on the basis of the 380 billion yuan investment in the next three years to strengthen computing power infrastructure. Morgan Stanley expects that Alibaba Cloud will add more than 3 GW of data center capacity annually from 2026 to 2032. [79][80] - OpenAI plans to build a data center with a capacity of over 2 GW by the end of 2025 and reach 250 GW by 2033, which requires huge capital investment and activation of the global industrial foundation. [82][84] - Huawei's Ascend chips are making rapid progress. The Matrix 386 AI server cluster based on Ascend 910C in 2025 has surpassed NVIDIA's mainstream products, and future product plans aim to far exceed NVIDIA in computing power. [85] - Huawei is developing and self - researching high - bandwidth memory (HBM), aiming to achieve full autonomy and control from the AI computing core to high - end storage chips. [88][89] - The soaring demand for computing power is expected to keep the semiconductor equipment industrial chain highly prosperous. [91]