Group 1: Core Views - The report mainly discusses three questions in light of the Q3 national debt issuance plan announced on June 30: whether the ultra-long bonds will experience a bond-switching market again, what rules can be grasped if the bond-switching market arrives, and how to view the supply pressure of interest rate bonds within the year [2] - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, with 20Y/30Y/50Y at 50 billion yuan, 71 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan respectively. The estimated total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, roughly in line with the 1.3 trillion yuan announced during the Two Sessions [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, while the 30Y active bond is likely to remain 2500002.IB. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low [4] - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, with interest rates declining first, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust. For 30Y national debts, if there is an expectation of an active bond switch, the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 needs to be large enough, or the issuance scale of each period of the bond needs to be small enough [6] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may occur in August, and the supply pressure in July is significantly reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The central bank may restart national debt purchases in August to hedge against the supply peak or announce it in advance in July [6] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant content provided in the text Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Perspective 1: Is it possible for ultra-long bonds to be switched? - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, different from the past where the single-bond issuance scale was usually small and the reissuance scale occasionally changed [3] - Based on the linear extrapolation of the special national debt issuance scale from the beginning of the year to date, the total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, consistent with the announced amount [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, and if the first issuance scale of 20Y bonds exceeds 5 billion yuan, the market may expect this bond type to become the active bond. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low, and the active bond 2500002.IB position can be maintained [4] Perspective 2: How to respond if there is an expectation of an active bond switch? - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust [6] - For 30Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 exceeds 12 billion yuan, investors may expect the final scale of this 30Y national debt to exceed the current active bond, leading to a rush. If the issuance scale of the 30Y special national debts on July 14, July 24, and August 8 is small enough, the expectation of an active bond switch may increase [6][7] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may be in August, and the supply pressure in July is reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The strategy can maintain the duration and wait for the opportunity of interest rate decline in the second half of the year [6]