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【立方债市通】上半年债市发债规模超27万亿元/周口投资集团拟发债36亿元/机构展望下半年债券市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 12:46
Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]
利率周记(6月第5周):超长债有可能换券吗?
Huaan Securities· 2025-07-01 02:58
Group 1: Core Views - The report mainly discusses three questions in light of the Q3 national debt issuance plan announced on June 30: whether the ultra-long bonds will experience a bond-switching market again, what rules can be grasped if the bond-switching market arrives, and how to view the supply pressure of interest rate bonds within the year [2] - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, with 20Y/30Y/50Y at 50 billion yuan, 71 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan respectively. The estimated total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, roughly in line with the 1.3 trillion yuan announced during the Two Sessions [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, while the 30Y active bond is likely to remain 2500002.IB. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low [4] - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, with interest rates declining first, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust. For 30Y national debts, if there is an expectation of an active bond switch, the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 needs to be large enough, or the issuance scale of each period of the bond needs to be small enough [6] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may occur in August, and the supply pressure in July is significantly reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The central bank may restart national debt purchases in August to hedge against the supply peak or announce it in advance in July [6] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant content provided in the text Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Perspective 1: Is it possible for ultra-long bonds to be switched? - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, different from the past where the single-bond issuance scale was usually small and the reissuance scale occasionally changed [3] - Based on the linear extrapolation of the special national debt issuance scale from the beginning of the year to date, the total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, consistent with the announced amount [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, and if the first issuance scale of 20Y bonds exceeds 5 billion yuan, the market may expect this bond type to become the active bond. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low, and the active bond 2500002.IB position can be maintained [4] Perspective 2: How to respond if there is an expectation of an active bond switch? - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust [6] - For 30Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 exceeds 12 billion yuan, investors may expect the final scale of this 30Y national debt to exceed the current active bond, leading to a rush. If the issuance scale of the 30Y special national debts on July 14, July 24, and August 8 is small enough, the expectation of an active bond switch may increase [6][7] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may be in August, and the supply pressure in July is reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The strategy can maintain the duration and wait for the opportunity of interest rate decline in the second half of the year [6]
如何看待二季度国债发行计划?
Huaan Securities· 2025-04-01 10:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The Q2 2025 treasury bond issuance plan is in line with expectations, with two notable changes: an increase in long - term bond issuance and the issuance of special treasury bonds for capital injection [3]. - Although the issuance scale of long - term bonds has increased in structure, the net financing pressure of treasury bonds in April is not high. The net financing peak of Q2 treasury bonds is concentrated in May - June, and due to the large maturity volume in April, the supply pressure is low. Overall, the supply pressure of treasury bonds gradually rebounds in Q2, with an increase in long - term bonds of key tenors. However, the relatively large maturity volume of treasury bonds in April makes the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds not high, which is particularly beneficial to the short - end [4][6]. - This year, the supply of interest - rate bonds is significantly higher than in previous years. The issuance of treasury bonds was slow in Q1, while local bonds were issued at an accelerated pace. The supply pressure in Q2 is relatively controllable, and the peak may fall in Q3. From the supply level, there is a certain downward opportunity for the bond market in April [6]. Summary by Relevant Contents Treasury Bond Issuance Plan in Q2 2025 - **Key - term treasury bonds**: From April to June, one 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y treasury bond will be issued each month. In addition, one 7Y and one 10Y treasury bond will be issued in April; two 10Y treasury bonds in May; one 5Y and two 10Y treasury bonds in June [4]. - **Short - term treasury bonds**: For 28 - day, 63 - day, 91 - day, and 182 - day treasury bonds, one 28 - day, one 63 - day, four 91 - day, and one 182 - day treasury bond will be issued in April; one 28 - day, one 63 - day, three 91 - day, and one 182 - day in May; one 28 - day, one 63 - day, four 91 - day, and one 182 - day in June [4]. - **Ultra - long - term general treasury bonds**: One 30Y treasury bond will be issued in April [4]. - **Savings treasury bonds**: One 3Y and one 5Y electronic savings treasury bond will be issued in April and June respectively; one 3Y and one 5Y certificate - type savings treasury bond will be issued in May [4]. - **Special treasury bonds**: One 5Y special treasury bond will be issued in April; one 5Y and one 7Y in May; one 7Y in June [4]. Comparison with Q1 - Compared with Q1, there is an increase in the issuance of long - end key - term treasury bonds. Specifically, two fewer 5Y and 7Y key - term treasury bonds are issued, while two more 10Y key - term treasury bonds are issued. Although two fewer 30Y ultra - long - term general treasury bonds are issued, there are still special treasury bond issuance plans in Q2, which are expected to be smooth throughout the year based on 2024 experience [4]. Issuance of Special Treasury Bonds for Capital Injection - The special treasury bonds for central financial institution capital injection are mainly 5Y and 7Y bonds, with a smooth issuance rhythm from April to June (one in April, two in May) [4]. Net Financing of Treasury Bonds in Q2 - The estimated total issuance in April, May, and June is 11043.4 billion yuan, 10603.2 billion yuan, and 12141.0 billion yuan respectively; the estimated total repayment is 12025.5 billion yuan, 5589.7 billion yuan, and 8496.5 billion yuan respectively; the estimated net financing is - 982.1 billion yuan, 5013.5 billion yuan, and 3644.5 billion yuan respectively [10]. Annual Net Financing Estimate - **Treasury bonds**: The net financing is about 6.66 trillion yuan, including 4.86 trillion yuan for ordinary treasury bonds. The annual new special treasury bonds are 1.8 trillion yuan, including 1.3 trillion yuan for ultra - long - term bonds and 500 billion yuan for capital injection [8]. - **Local bonds**: The annual net financing is about 6.6 trillion yuan, including about 5.2 trillion yuan for new bonds, 2 trillion yuan for replacement bonds, and about 2.4 trillion yuan for refinancing bonds (estimated at an 80% ratio). After subtracting the maturity volume, the overall net financing is about 6.6 trillion yuan [8]. - **Policy - financial bonds**: The estimated net financing this year is about 1.8 trillion yuan, which is generally the same as in previous years. The net financing of policy - financial bonds from 2022 - 2024 was 2.08 trillion yuan, 1.86 trillion yuan, and 1.61 trillion yuan respectively [8].