趋势反套

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生猪:被动累库形成,布局趋势反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In mid - to late May, the volume - price performance indicates passive inventory accumulation. The second - round fattening group entered the market in advance at the end of the month due to concerns about policy restrictions, accelerating the inventory accumulation. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and its far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. If the second - round fattening policy is fully implemented, it will drive slow destocking. Long - term, it is recommended to continuously lay out reverse spreads for 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1, with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,550 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 15,340 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [1]. - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: The prices of the生猪2507,生猪2509, and生猪2511 contracts are 13,260 yuan/ton, 13,560 yuan/ton, and 13,110 yuan/ton respectively. The year - on - year changes are 10, 0, and - 65 respectively. The trading volumes of the生猪2507,生猪2509, and生猪2511 contracts are 4,529 hands, 16,995 hands, and 6,653 hands respectively, with changes of 73, - 4231, and 1652 compared to the previous day. The open interests are 23,724 hands, 77,960 hands, and 36,425 hands respectively, with changes of - 1327, - 1307, and 567 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the生猪2507,生猪2509, and生猪2511 contracts are 1,290 yuan/ton, 990 yuan/ton, and 1,440 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 10, 0, and 65 respectively. The 7 - 9 spread is - 300 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 10 [1]. 3.2. Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2]. 3.3. Market Logic - Passive inventory accumulation occurred in mid - to late May. The second - round fattening group's early entry at the end of the month accelerated the inventory accumulation. The January contract's far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread due to liquidity. If the second - round fattening policy is implemented, it will lead to slow destocking. Long - term reverse spread positions for 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 are recommended. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [3].
生猪:被动累库形成,趋势反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current north - south spread of fattening pigs is inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, and official piglet numbers confirm the stock. With weakening expectations, weak demand, and slaughter volume unable to support selling, prices have fallen more than expected, leading to passive inventory accumulation and a possible switch in the positive spread structure. The January contract is affected by liquidity, resulting in the far - month spread deviating from the seasonal reasonable spread. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,205 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live pig 2509 contract is 13,515 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live pig 2511 contract is 13,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2507 contract is 5,872 lots, a decrease of 1,759 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,021 lots, a decrease of 758 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 25,562 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 80,485 lots, a decrease of 178 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the live pig 2511 contract is 6,079 lots, an increase of 1,117 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 34,247 lots, an increase of 1,034 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view. The range of trend intensity values is an integer in the interval [- 2,2], where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The north - south spread of fattening pigs is inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, official piglet numbers confirm the stock, expectations are weakening, demand is weak, slaughter volume cannot support selling, and passive inventory accumulation occurs, leading to a possible switch in the positive spread structure. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and the far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 reverse spreads in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of the live pig 2507 contract is 1,095 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 785 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live pig 2511 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread is - 310 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 335 yuan/ton [3]