Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the hog market, analyzing the current fundamentals, trend strength, and market logic [1][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The market is under pressure due to increased planned slaughter volume by group farms in August, passive hog retention by散户, and limited demand growth. The daily trading volume has been poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and with the significant premium of the futures price over the warehouse receipt cost, the industry's willingness to deliver has increased. Attention should be paid to the price convergence. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, with the spread structure maintaining a reverse spread. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [4] Group 4: Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,870 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,900 yuan/ton (down 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 14,130 yuan/ton (down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 5,772 lots (down 4,063 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 16,609 lots (down 2,018 lots from the previous day). For hog2511, the trading volume is 34,419 lots (down 13,089 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 64,710 lots (down 1,520 lots from the previous day). For hog2601, the trading volume is 15,747 lots (down 2,368 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 46,213 lots (up 437 lots from the previous day) [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 60 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 30 yuan/ton (up 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and - 200 yuan/ton (up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The spread between hog9 - 11 is - 30 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between hog11 - 1 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current north - south spread of fattening pigs is inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, and official piglet numbers confirm the stock. With weakening expectations, weak demand, and slaughter volume unable to support selling, prices have fallen more than expected, leading to passive inventory accumulation and a possible switch in the positive spread structure. The January contract is affected by liquidity, resulting in the far - month spread deviating from the seasonal reasonable spread. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,205 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live pig 2509 contract is 13,515 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live pig 2511 contract is 13,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2507 contract is 5,872 lots, a decrease of 1,759 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,021 lots, a decrease of 758 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 25,562 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 80,485 lots, a decrease of 178 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the live pig 2511 contract is 6,079 lots, an increase of 1,117 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 34,247 lots, an increase of 1,034 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view. The range of trend intensity values is an integer in the interval [- 2,2], where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The north - south spread of fattening pigs is inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, official piglet numbers confirm the stock, expectations are weakening, demand is weak, slaughter volume cannot support selling, and passive inventory accumulation occurs, leading to a possible switch in the positive spread structure. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and the far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 reverse spreads in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of the live pig 2507 contract is 1,095 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 785 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live pig 2511 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread is - 310 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 335 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are issues such as inverted price differences between fat pigs in the north and south, reduced piglet sales by groups, and increased pen pressure in May, price increases have led to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions are not at the release stage. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm. In the medium - to - long - term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 14,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and in Guangdong is 15,190 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,495 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), the 2509 contract is 13,780 yuan/ton (down 240 yuan/ton), and the 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live hog 2507 contract is 9,989 lots (an increase of 2,918 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 27,584 lots (a decrease of 706 lots); the 2509 contract has a trading volume of 40,357 lots (an increase of 12,323 lots), with an open interest of 77,561 lots (an increase of 5,221 lots); the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 6,572 lots (an increase of 3,358 lots), with an open interest of 30,277 lots (an increase of 837 lots) [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,505 yuan/ton (an increase of 150 yuan/ton), the 2509 contract is 1,220 yuan/ton (an increase of 240 yuan/ton), and the 2511 contract is 1,450 yuan/ton (an increase of 105 yuan/ton). The 7 - 9 spread is - 285 yuan/ton (an increase of 90 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 11 spread is 230 yuan/ton (a decrease of 135 yuan/ton) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. It represents a neutral state [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm for arbitrage strategies. In the medium - to - long - term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].