Core Viewpoint - Since October, the prices of government bond futures have shown a strong upward trend, reversing the weak performance of the third quarter, primarily due to the central bank's increased open market operations and the resumption of government bond trading, leading to a more relaxed market liquidity environment [1][29]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in October was 318,100 contracts, a decrease of 13.76% month-on-month, mainly due to the National Day holiday [4]. - The average open interest increased by 10.49% month-on-month to 678,000 contracts, indicating strong hedging demand in the market [4]. - The central bank's open market operations have resulted in a slight net injection of liquidity, maintaining a relatively stable overall funding rate [4][22]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment figures for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, which was below expectations and previous values, leading to increased risk aversion [8]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value but below market expectations, indicating moderate inflation [8]. - The central bank's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 was influenced by the soft employment data and the government shutdown, which affected the release of several economic indicators [8]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank has resumed government bond trading operations to stabilize market expectations and enhance liquidity, which is expected to support government bond prices [26][27]. - The central bank is likely to continue implementing a supportive monetary policy stance, providing both short-term and long-term liquidity arrangements to maintain relatively loose financing conditions [27]. - Despite achieving consensus in U.S.-China trade negotiations, external uncertainties remain, and the domestic economy is facing challenges, particularly in the real estate sector, which continues to show weakness [29].