| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月14日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆★ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天知棉继续上涨,国产棉现货交数一般,主流基差维持稳定;下游纪棉纱库存不断景积,市场订单不足,下游刚需采购为 主。她棉纱波季背景下下游需求偏弱,则需采购,对于棉纱涨价接受废不高。中美贸易谈判好于预期,关注后续外需能否好 转。国内4月份纺服出口表现尚可, 4月,我国出口纺织品服装241.86亿美元,同比增加1.1% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ななな [1] - Apple: ななな [1] - Timber: ななな [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides investment operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and market sentiment analysis for each commodity, with most current suggestions being to wait and see [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Today, cotton prices continued to rise. Domestic cotton spot trading volume was average, and the mainstream basis remained stable. Downstream cotton yarn inventory was accumulating, with insufficient market orders and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The Sino - US trade negotiation was better than expected, and domestic textile and clothing exports in April were okay. If the negotiation continued to improve, there might be a tighter end - of - season inventory. Suggested operation: wait and see or try the bull spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For Brazil, the 25/26 crushing season supply was expected to be bearish. The domestic sales data in April was bullish. Although Guangxi increased production this year, inventory decreased year - on - year due to a faster sales pace. The import volume of sugar and syrup in the first quarter decreased significantly. The US sugar trend was downward, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar was limited. It was expected that the short - term sugar price would fluctuate. Suggested operation: wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Spot mainstream prices remained stable. Due to rising temperatures and the listing of seasonal fruits, apple demand declined, and the procurement enthusiasm of merchants decreased. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. Although the flower volume in the western producing areas was sufficient, the fruit - setting rate was low, and the output might be lower than expected. Suggested operation: wait and see [4] 20 - number rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, RU&NR opened high and closed low, and BR continued to rise sharply. The supply of global natural rubber entered the growth period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device start - up rate changed. The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, and the finished - product inventory decreased. The inventory of natural rubber and butadiene rubber increased. Strategy: hold the inter - variety arbitrage on the rebound [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices rose first and then fell. As of May 8, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports decreased. The external quotation was lowered, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand and price - pressing. The Sino - US negotiation was better than expected. Suggested operation: wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. Spot mainstream prices remained stable. The New Zealand log shipment entered the off - season, and the demand peak was over. The national log inventory continued to decrease, but the radiata pine inventory increased. The timber fundamentals were relatively weak. It was expected that the futures price would fluctuate. Suggested operation: wait and see [8]