1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the combination of the end - of - quarter period and the large - scale issuance of local government bonds on the capital market at the end of June is complex, but if the central bank maintains a supportive attitude, the impact on the capital market may be relatively controllable [3][4] - The capital market has shown certain trends this week, such as the increase in the scale of repurchase transactions and the change in the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The capital gap index and the cross - quarter progress of various institutions also reflect the current capital situation [3][17] - Predictions are made for the issuance and net financing scale of government bonds in June and the third quarter, and corresponding investment suggestions are given for different institutions [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Situation Review - The central bank's reverse repurchase had a net investment of 102.1 billion yuan this week, with 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Tuesday. The capital market remained generally loose, and the DR001 dropped below 1.4% [3][7] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase reached a record high of 8.7 trillion yuan on Thursday, with an average daily trading volume of 8.32 trillion yuan, the highest since August 2023. The overall scale of pledged repurchase also reached a new high of 12.56 trillion yuan this year [3][17] - The net financing of large - scale and joint - stock banks fluctuated and rebounded, while that of city - commercial banks remained relatively stable. The net financing scale of non - bank institutions was significantly higher than last week, mainly due to the large increase in the financing of product accounts such as funds, wealth management, and other products [3][17] - The new - caliber capital gap index first rose and then fell, and was still lower than last Friday. The cross - quarter progress of various institutions was at the lowest level in the past five years and continued to slow down compared with the average of previous years [3][17] - The excess reserve ratio in May increased by about 0.1 percentage points to 1.0% compared with April, but was still at the lowest level in the same period since 2019. There were also changes in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and government deposits [3][27] - The scale of banks' rigid financing of funds increased significantly this week, even higher than that of non - bank institutions, which may be a preparation for the concentrated payment of local government bonds and the end - of - quarter period next week [3][38] 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 144.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 789.8 billion yuan next week, the highest since late April [3][40] - It is estimated that the net financing of national bonds in June is about 710 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds is about 630 billion yuan. The predicted issuance scale of government bonds in June is adjusted upwards to about 2.7 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.33 trillion yuan [3][44] - It is predicted that the issuance of national bonds from July to September will be 1.39 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan, and 1.48 trillion yuan respectively, with net financing of 630 billion yuan, 730 billion yuan, and 680 billion yuan respectively. The issuance of local government bonds from July to September is expected to be 1.20 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan, and 0.85 trillion yuan respectively, with net financing of 800 billion yuan, 660 billion yuan, and 440 billion yuan respectively [4][47] - Although factors such as the end - of - quarter period and the concentrated payment of government bonds may have a superimposed impact next week, if the central bank maintains a supportive attitude, the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is limited. Non - bank institutions can make decisions after the central bank's MLF operation attitude becomes clearer [4][52] 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The secondary interest rate of AAA - rated 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit dropped by 3.1 basis points to 1.64% this week. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, with a net financing of 47 billion yuan [4][53] - The net financing scale of state - owned banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased, while that of joint - stock banks decreased. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 27% [55][56] - The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 1.1092 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.9 billion yuan compared with this week [56] - The issuance success rate of rural commercial banks' certificates of deposit decreased slightly, while that of other banks increased. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city - commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [57] - The relative strength index of the supply and demand of certificates of deposit decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 41.0% compared with last week, still in a relatively strong range. The supply - demand index of 3 - month certificates of deposit increased, while that of 1 - month, 6 - month and above - term certificates of deposit decreased [69] 3.3 Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased. The interest rates of 3 - month and 6 - month national - share bills increased by 2 basis points and 1 basis point respectively to 1.01% and 1.05% [74] 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, bond interest rates fluctuated and declined, with the short - end performing strongly, and credit and perpetual bond spreads remaining generally stable [76] - The willingness of large - scale banks to reduce bond holdings decreased, mainly increasing their holdings of certificates of deposit and long - term policy - financial bonds. The willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings remained high, but there were differences among different institutions. The willingness of allocation - type institutions to reduce bond holdings increased, with differences among different institutions as well [76]