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南华期货集运周报:美国态度有所缓和,船司5月报价持续下行-20250428
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot index of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for European routes rebounded, while that for the US West routes dropped significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise slightly, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) continued to decline slightly [2][8]. - The futures price trend this week was affected by the negative sentiment brought by the tariff policy and the decline of the spot cabin quotes on European routes in May, which was lower than market expectations. In the short - term, without progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiations, EC may mainly show a slightly downward oscillating trend, but the possibility of a short - term rebound from the low level should also be vigilant [2]. - The current contradiction between the futures and spot price differences is not significant, and traders should keep observing to find new trading opportunities. They can also temporarily wait and observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 06 - 08 contracts [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy - **Spot - Futures (Basis) Strategy**: The current contradiction between futures and spot price differences is not significant, and traders should keep observing to find new trading opportunities [3]. - **Arbitrage (Inter - period) Strategy**: Temporarily wait and observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 06 - 08 contracts [4]. 3.2 Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2506 and 2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded slightly. The closing price of EC2506 decreased by 10.95% compared with the previous week, closing at 1365.1 points, and the settlement price decreased by 11.50%, closing at 1376.2 points. The main influencing factors this week were the tariff policy and the spot price [4]. 3.3 Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of April 21, the SCFIS European route index rebounded with a month - on - month increase of 7.57%, while the US West route freight rate dropped significantly with a month - on - month decrease of 13.82%. As of April 25, the CCFI continued to rise slightly, while the SCFI and NCFI continued to decline slightly [8]. - In terms of different routes, the North American routes rebounded slightly. The SCFI US West route increased by 1.81% month - on - month, and the SCFI US East route increased by 0.18% month - on - month, while the SCFI European route continued to decline with a month - on - month decrease of 4.26% [8]. 3.4 Spot Information - Supply Side - As of April 24, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.1%. The idle capacity of container ships over 17000 TEU was 17816 TEU, accounting for 0.4% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships was 43226 TEU, accounting for 0.6% of this type of ships [29]. - The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 46.4 thousand TEU compared with last week, closing at 411.0 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port decreased by 4.0 thousand TEU, closing at 265.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port decreased by 1.5 thousand TEU, closing at 107.9 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port decreased by 19.9 thousand TEU, closing at 94.5 thousand TEU [32]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The SCFIS European route index rebounded by 7.57%, reaching 1508.44 points. The basis of the main contract EC2506 increased by 281.09 points compared with the previous week, reaching - 13.56 points, and then turned from negative to positive. The increase in the spot - futures basis mainly came from the continuous decline of the futures price. Currently, the contradiction between the futures and spot price differences is not significant, and traders should keep observing [34]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The spread of the EC2504 - EC2506 contract combination was 75.5 points, the spread of the EC2504 - EC2508 contract combination was - 172.4 points, and the spread of the EC2506 - EC2508 contract combination was - 247.9 points. The back structure of the 04 and 06 contracts deepened. Traders can temporarily wait and observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 06 - 08 contracts [39].