Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import supply pressure of sugar may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline. [2][4] - The current domestic sugar price spread structure is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, while the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, which is contrary to the theoretical situation. [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import Supply Pressure - Since mid - May, the international sugar price has continued to decline. The price of ICE raw sugar October contract has weakened from over 18 cents per pound, and the July contract once fell below 15 cents per pound. The low delivery price and small quantity indicate insufficient actual demand. [4] - With the decline of the external market price, China's out - of - quota import cost has dropped from around 6200 yuan per ton to about 5600 yuan per ton. Currently, China is in the best import profit window in the past 5 years, with the out - of - quota spot import profit exceeding 600 yuan per ton and the out - of - quota import profit on the futures market exceeding 100 yuan per ton. The import supply is likely to increase in the second half of the year. [4] - In June, Brazil exported 3360000 tons of sugar, an increase of 1100000 tons from May and 160000 tons from last year. The sugar exported to China in June was 760000 tons, an increase of 240000 tons from May and 320000 tons from last year. The supply of processed sugar in the spot market has increased recently. [5] 3.2 Domestic Price Spread Structure - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 3048300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322100 tons. [14] - If the import supply increases as expected in the second half of the year, the basis between the spot and futures prices may return, and it is more likely that the spot price will return to the futures price. [15] - The monthly spread structure of the futures market is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates around 50 yuan per ton. The valuation of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively high compared with other contracts. [15]

Core Insights - The egg futures market has reached a significant milestone with the 2507 contract rolling delivery volume hitting 290 lots and the number of delivery pairs exceeding 586 lots, marking a historical high for single contract deliveries in China's egg futures market [1] - The delivery participants show distinct characteristics, with sellers primarily consisting of large-scale domestic egg-laying enterprises and trading companies, while buyers are mainly institutional investors from Zhejiang [1] Market Context for High Delivery Volume - The 2507 egg futures contract remains in a contango structure, but the price gap between futures and spot prices is narrowing due to recent price declines, allowing egg-laying enterprises to hedge and lock in sales prices through futures [3] - Compared to the spot market's average transaction price of 2.50 yuan per jin, futures hedging has provided enterprises with a profit of approximately 0.30 yuan per jin, serving as an important risk management tool [3] - As of July 8, the basis for the 2508 egg futures contract relative to the national average was -995 yuan per 500 kg, with futures premiums at historically high levels for the same period [3] - On July 7, the main egg futures contract saw a decline of 3.74%, reaching a near five-year low, while egg prices in Handan, Hebei, dropped to 2.44 yuan per jin, also a five-year low, driven primarily by production capacity pressures [3] Supply and Demand Imbalance Driving Price Decline - Supply-side pressures are evident, with the national laying hen stock reaching approximately 1.34 billion birds in June, a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%, leading to an oversupply of eggs [4] - The average monthly price of eggs in major production areas was 2.76 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.39% and a year-on-year decline of 26.79% [4] - Despite a significant decrease in the age of culling hens in May and June, the stock of laying hens remains high, with expectations of continued production capacity increases in July, estimated at around 1.35 billion birds [4] - Demand appears weak, as the current season is characterized by reduced school procurement due to summer vacations, shifting to household consumption, while high temperatures hinder egg storage, leading to cautious downstream purchasing [4] - Low-price zones are experiencing delivery and cold storage behaviors, which limit price declines, but this inventory may face selling pressure around September, potentially suppressing the market ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The industry inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The fundamentals are difficult to drive. It is expected that the main pulp futures contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5260 - 5520 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable softwood pulp and weak hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulps such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of hardwood pulps like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine decreased, with declines ranging from 2.25% - 3.41% [10]. - The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, natural pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp in South China, bamboo pulp in Southwest China, and reed pulp in Northeast China were all unchanged compared with the previous week [13]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review** - Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2507 fluctuated horizontally within a range of about 110 points. It finally closed at 5376 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (or +0.26%) for the week. The trading volume was 950,000 lots, an increase of 195,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 122,000 lots, a decrease of 22,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison** - Due to the fact that the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was slightly smaller than the increase in the pulp futures price last week, the futures - spot basis discount slightly decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 974 yuan/ton, a reduction of 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [19]. - **Log Futures Price Review** - The main log futures contract 2507 showed a downward - fluctuating trend last week. It finally closed at 796.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 26.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 3.16%) compared with the previous week's closing price. The trading volume was 136,000 lots, an increase of 77,200 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 31,200 lots, an increase of 5,400 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production** - Last week, the pulp production was 465,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons (or +0.93%). Among them, the hardwood pulp production was 181,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,100 tons (or +3.47%), and the chemical mechanical pulp production was 202,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons (or - 0.59%). It is expected that the domestic hardwood pulp production this week will be about 201,000 tons, and the chemical mechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate** - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 67.16%, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 85.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [26]. - In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 81.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% [33]. - **Monthly Pulp Production** - In March 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.213 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,500 tons (or +11.68%); the wood pulp production was 1.8549 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 182,000 tons (or +10.88%); the hardwood pulp production was 977,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76,800 tons (or +8.52%); the chemical mechanical pulp production was 877,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 105,200 tons (or +13.63%) [28]. - **Production Profit** - In March 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 1,300.05 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38.91 yuan/ton (or - 2.91%), and a year - on - year decrease of 705.72 yuan/ton (or - 35.18%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 213.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 yuan/ton [34]. - **Pulp Imports** - In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,100 tons (or +0.9%), and a year - on - year increase of 79,100 tons (or +2.50%). From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons (or +5%) [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Market Capacity Utilization and Production** - **Living Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic living paper production was 293,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 1.01%); the capacity utilization rate was 66.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In March 2025, the domestic living paper production was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons (or +10.2%), and a year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons (or +11.92%); the capacity utilization rate was 69.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% [40][60]. - **Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 78,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The offset paper production was 196,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons (or +0.05%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. In March 2025, the domestic cultural paper offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons (or +16.17%), and a year - on - year decrease of 84,000 tons (or - 8.88%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.41%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons (or +16.22%), and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons (or - 11.79%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [44][63]. - **Packaging Paper Market**: - **White Cardboard and White Board Paper**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 307,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.32%); the capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The white board paper production was 201,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.99%); the capacity utilization rate was 71.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. In March 2025, the domestic white cardboard production was 1.147 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (or +23.85%), and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.71%); the capacity utilization rate was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% [47][60]. - **Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper**: Last week, the corrugated paper production was 459,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons (or +2.46%); the capacity utilization rate was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The box board paper production was 618,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.16%); the capacity utilization rate was 68.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis** - **Living Paper and Cultural Paper**: Last week, in the living paper market, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 3.13%), and the price of bamboo pulp large - roll base paper in Sichuan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%). In the cultural paper market, the price of 70g Chenming Yunbao offset paper in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), and the price of 157g Chenming Xuelu copperplate paper decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%) [53]. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: Last week, in the white board paper market, the prices of Taicang Jiulong 240g Jianglong white board paper in Shandong and Tianjin Jiulong 250g Dilong white board paper decreased. In the white cardboard market, the prices of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g Red - crowned Crane and Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g Wanguo Sun remained unchanged [55]. - **Box Board Paper and Corrugated Paper**: Last week, the prices of box board paper and corrugated paper in Shandong remained stable [57]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption** - In March 2025, the predicted consumption of domestic pulp was 3.4 million tons, the predicted demand was 3.415 million tons, and the actual announced consumption was 3.441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 476,000 tons (or +16.05%) [65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory** - Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed an accumulation trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons (or +1.79%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.347 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 0.81%). The inventory in Changshu Port was 558,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41,000 tons (or +7.93%), and the inventory in Tianjin Port was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons (or +8.57%) [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts** - Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 325,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 4.44%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 281,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 5.09%) [74].

南华期货集运周报 —— 美国态度有所缓和，船司5月报价持续下行 2025/04/27 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣（Z0021065） 1. 摘要 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数（SCFIS）欧洲航线有所回升，美西航线则大幅回 落。中国出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）继续小幅上行，上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）和宁波出口集 装箱运价指数（NCFI）则继续小幅下行。 分航线来看，SCFI欧洲继续下行，美西航线和美东航线则均略有回升。当周期价的历史走势整体偏 震荡。当周期价走势仍受关税政策带来的负面情绪影响，但在美国态度有所缓和的情况下，部分合约有所 回升；同时也仍受到5月（传统旺季）欧线现舱报价继续下降，不及市场预期带来的利空影响。 对于后市而言，可关注关税政策变化，以及来自于船司、货量需求等方面的变化。 短期，在中美关税谈判暂无进展的情况下，EC可能仍以震荡略偏下行的走势为主，但也需警惕短期 低位回升的可能性。 2. 策略 期现（基差）策略：当前期现价差矛盾并不显著，交易者保持观察寻觅新的交易机会。 套利（跨期）策略：可暂时观望，观察06-08的反套机会。 E ...