1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall investment rating for the bond market. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [34]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [35]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the price change of convertible bonds relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [36]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond index has reached a new high, and its future trend depends on the performance of the equity market. The market scale is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is significant. Investors are advised to focus on individual bonds rather than the index, increase tolerance for the price range of convertible bonds, and consider balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term in line with policy directions [1][2][9]. - The median price of convertible bonds is 125.68 yuan, the median parity is 99.42 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate is 26%. The valuations of all types of convertible bonds have increased in the past two weeks. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined marginally in cross - asset comparisons, but due to the "asset shortage" in the market, institutional attention to convertible bonds remains high [2][7]. - The supply of convertible bonds accelerated in the second quarter, with 10 issues listed, totaling about 13.76 billion yuan. Six convertible bonds have been listed in July, with a scale of about 4.35 billion yuan, a faster pace than in 2024. From April to July, 7 convertible bonds matured and 25 were forcibly redeemed, with a total exit scale of over 40 billion yuan. Another 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds will mature from August to December. The short - term supply supplement is still limited [2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The equity market reached 3500 last week, driving the convertible bond index to a new high. The median price of convertible bonds has reached 125 yuan, an all - time high. The willingness to force redemption increased in July, capping the theoretical price of convertible bonds [7]. - The price and valuation of convertible bonds are both high, and their future trend depends on the equity market. If the equity market rises, convertible bonds may follow but with limited space; if it moves sideways, funds may realize profits; if it declines, convertible bonds may be relatively resistant to decline [2][7]. - The market scale of convertible bonds is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although the number of new issuance plans has increased and the approval process seems to be accelerating, the current stock of planned convertible bonds is still limited, and the issuance of mainstream varieties such as bank convertible bonds is restricted by new refinancing regulations [2][8]. - Given the high median price of convertible bonds, investors are advised to focus on individual bonds. Balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term can provide trading opportunities. If opportunities are limited, investors can consider adjusting their positions from high - priced to low - priced bonds [2][9]. 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - month, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Material Index, etc. [14]. 3.2.2 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds The document does not provide specific content in the text, but there are charts showing the top ten and bottom ten individual bond price changes (excluding new listings) in the past week [16]. 3.2.3 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds in different parity ranges [25][28]. 3.2.4 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the proportion trend of high - priced bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [30].

● 本报记者 连润 纵观上半年，可转债市场在权益回暖与政策调控双重驱动下，经历"先扬后抑再修复"的波动周期。 Wind数据显示，上半年，中证转债指数累计上涨7.02%。"在多重因素驱动下，上半年可转债呈'N'型向 上波动，可转债指数较主要股指均表现强势。"周冠南表示。 7月7日，金丹转债、天阳转债迎来最后交易日，两只可转债均因触发有条件赎回条款将被提前赎回。 除上述两只可转债外，近期还有多只可转债将被提前赎回。其中，存量规模达9.26亿元的南银转债将于 7月14日迎来最后交易日；齐鲁转债日前发布提前赎回公告称，存量41.75亿元转债将陆续转股或赎回。 专家表示，今年以来可转债"强赎潮"上演，多只存量规模较大的可转债退出。此外，可转债发行规模虽 有扩大但节奏仍然偏慢，可转债市场供需再平衡行情持续演绎。流动性改善、政策支持加码、风险偏好 抬升及科技产业深化发展等多重利好共振，权益市场上行趋势或将持续利好转债市场。 "强赎潮"上演 可转债市场规模缩量但需求高涨，供需失衡刺激市场走强。左大勇分析，可转债市场上半年表现突出， 权益强势的表现是上涨和突破的基础，看涨行情下资金回补力量较强，市场进一步形成"跌不动"的预 期 ...

证券研究报告：银行业|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 4479.03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4479.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 l 风险提示： 数据统计误差，外部事件超预期恶化，银行不良资产大面积暴露。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 《银行资负观察第二期：存款降息对 大行负债影响几何？》 - 2025.05.30 金融可转债研究：金融转债梳理推荐 l 投资要点 板块供需矛盾仍突出：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，转债市场目前存 续个券约 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring of the monetary system, driven by changes in trust due to shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [3] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue, as the decline in trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift [3] - In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar may face further credit decline risks, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations [3] Group 2: U.S. Tax Policy Risks - The new U.S. tax reduction plan presents three main risks: financing risk due to inappropriate U.S. debt supply pressure, economic risk from unfair income distribution effects, and trust risk related to unfriendly international tax policies [6] Group 3: Trade Relations and Asset Prices - Historical analysis shows that asset prices are significantly influenced by trade relations, with market sensitivity to negative signals being higher than to positive ones [7] - The performance of different asset classes varies, with stocks and currencies being more sensitive to trade signals compared to the bond market [7] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market is expected to enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive assets [9] - The risk of credit shocks in the convertible bond market is considered manageable, with strong support for the current convertible bond pricing [10] Group 5: IPO Market Strategy - The IPO market is set for high-quality development, with regulatory support for technology-driven companies and a steady increase in the number of IPOs expected in 2025 [16][17] - The anticipated issuance of 80 to 140 new stocks in 2025 is expected to raise approximately 94 billion yuan, with a projected average first-day increase of 150% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [17] Group 6: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intensified price competition, but healthy competition is expected to prevail, with market share likely concentrating among leading companies [18] - The resilience of leading e-commerce delivery companies is noted, with their performance remaining stable amid competitive pressures [18] Group 7: 3D DRAM Technology - The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM architecture is highlighted as a long-term trend, with significant implications for AI applications and hardware development [20] Group 8: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from high-end segments and e-commerce trends, with a focus on brands that adapt to new market dynamics [22][23] Group 9: Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with leading companies focusing on high-end product development and targeting younger consumer demographics [25]

Core Viewpoint - The banking convertible bond market is likely to experience a new wave of early redemption as several bank convertible bonds approach their redemption thresholds, highlighting the scarcity of blue-chip convertible bonds in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Early Redemption Triggers - Hangzhou Bank's convertible bond (杭银转债) is on the verge of triggering early redemption, with its stock price consistently above the required threshold [2]. - Nanjing Bank's convertible bond (南银转债) is also nearing its early redemption phase, as its stock price has surpassed the redemption price [3]. - The overall performance of bank stocks has been strong, with the China Securities Banking Index rising by 44.84% in 2024, contributing to the upward trend in bank convertible bond prices [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The issuance of new convertible bonds this year is only 17 billion yuan, significantly lower than the amount being delisted, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1]. - The scarcity of blue-chip convertible bonds is expected to increase as more bank convertible bonds are redeemed, while the supply of smaller convertible bonds remains high, potentially increasing market volatility [1][4]. - The market is anticipated to shrink due to natural expirations of convertible bonds, with a notable reduction in available supply as 50 billion yuan of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's convertible bonds approach maturity [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The strategy of investing in low-priced convertible bonds is facing challenges as the market shifts, with many bank convertible bonds now in the mid to high price range [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current market has about 10 bank convertible bonds, with total outstanding amounts potentially decreasing from 170 billion yuan to around 100 billion yuan, increasing the scarcity of large bank convertible bonds [5]. - Public funds are expected to adjust their performance evaluation mechanisms, leading to a potential increase in the allocation of high-rated, undervalued bank convertible bonds, which may present opportunities for excess returns [5].

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 我们认为，转债市场未来或因供需错配而迎来牛市。 需求方面，低利率环境下资金将持续寻求合意标的， 同时当前的转债双低策略能够稳定跑赢基金业绩基准中常用的中证转债指数，或将吸引新规后的公募资 金；供给方面，参考日本 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月24日发布的 转债或迎供需错配牛 郑子勋 ，资格证书编号 ： S0880525040047 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 90 年代信用债放量、转债缩量的历史经验，当前我国大力提振科创债发行，信用债发行放量，对转债可 能形成一定挤出效应。 而从 24 年底至今，转债市场风险偏好持续上行。 牛市初期，低风险偏好先上行，然后过渡到高风险偏好 （类似股市风格轮动的先价值，后成长）。牛市如果 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The convertible bond market continued to decline alongside the equity market, with the China Convertible Bond Index dropping by 1.70% to 420.91 points as of April 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11% to 3,238.23 points [1][11][24] - The trading volume and turnover of convertible bonds saw significant increases, with trading volume rising by 105.0% and turnover increasing by 93.0% to 30,833 million hands and 4,654.56 billion respectively [2][24] - The performance of various sectors varied, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, retail, national defense, and food and beverage sectors showing positive performance, while the electrical equipment, communication, machinery, media, and steel sectors experienced the largest declines [19][36] Group 2: Convertible Bond Valuation - The convertible bond premium rate rose to 54.99%, an increase of 20.11% from the previous week, approaching the 50th percentile level of the past 24 years [3][39] - High premium rates were observed in the textile, food and beverage, pharmaceutical, construction materials, and non-bank financial sectors, while lower rates were noted in agriculture, banking, communication, and commercial trade sectors [42] - The pure bond premium rates were higher in the public utility, national defense, automotive, computer, and mining sectors, while lower rates were seen in media, commercial trade, non-bank financial, steel, and banking sectors [42] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 11, 2025, the total balance of listed convertible bonds was 7,023.16 billion, a decrease of 18.29 billion from the previous week, with a weighted average remaining term of 2.8 years [4][48] - The issuance dynamics included three new convertible bonds listed, with total issuance sizes of 5.00 billion, 0.67 billion, and 0.354 billion respectively, and one bond announced for issuance with a planned size of 1.175 billion [51][52] - Demand for convertible bonds from convertible bond funds continued to rise, with the market value held by these funds reaching 1,688.97 billion, a growth of 15.4% compared to the previous quarter [4][48]